JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 3:26 AM EST976
FXUS63 KJKL 200826
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
326 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flurries and snow showers taper off today.
- Single-digit wind chill and/or air temperatures are expected
tonight this morning, and again tonight into Friday morning.
- High temperatures return to near to above normal during the
first half of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
The latest round of snow is moving into the area from the
northwest as a clipper is passing through the Ohio Valley. This is
well handled by the current forecast so significant changes were
made other than the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for
the T/Td grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the WSWs, NPW, HWO, ZFP,
and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 645 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows a cold air mass pushing deeper into eastern
Kentucky with cyclonic air flow around a low pressure system off
the Carolina coast. An upper level wave and sfc clipper moves
through the area tonight - renewing the snow fall for much of the
area. This, combined with the refreezing wet roads and icy
conditions tonight, will keep the winter storm warning going until
early Thursday morning, at the least. Currently, the snow is in a
lull with just some flurries around through the first part of the
evening - under mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures are already
quite cold out there with readings ranging from the upper teens
north to the low and mid 20s south. Meanwhile, amid northerly
winds of 5 or so mph, dewpoints are generally in the mid teens.
Have updated the forecast to fine tune the PoPs and snow chances
through the night per the latest CAMs guidance. Did also include
the current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 325 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
Models are in good agreement in depicting a deep upper low moving
east from the Ohio River Valley tonight before quickly moving out
into the Atlantic by Thursday night. Strongly confluent flow aloft
on the upstream side of the upper low then persists through the
remainder of the short-term ending Friday morning.
An upper-level jet streak will strengthen as the upper level low
approaches eastern Kentucky tonight, with the forecast area falling
under an impressive area of shear vorticity aloft in the left exit
region of the attendant strengthening upper-level jet stream,
indicative of a brief yet fairly decent area of upward motion (i.e.,
lift). Would thus expect that the atmosphere will be efficient in
squeezing out a 1- to 2-hour period of more intense snow as this
feature moves quickly across the area tonight.
After the transitory upper low and strongest curvature/shear
vorticity aloft departs, the area then resides in a cold advection
upslope regime that is quite common for our area this time of year,
with snow showers and flurries continuing through the remainder of
the period as high pressure builds into the area under the strong
upper level confluence.
The big story in addition to the snow will be the bitter cold.
Record low high temperatures will be threatened for Thursday, with
highs only in the lower to mid 20s. With the western and
southwestern counties at least partially if not fully clearing out
overnight Thursday night, lows will plummet into the single digits,
with the potential for a reading near zero degrees in any sheltered
valley locations, especially areas along and southwest of US Highway
421. The Cold Weather Advisory stands a good chance of being
extended through Thursday into Thursday night, but will defer one
more forecast package for now.
Though the majority of the snow with this two-pronged winter storm
has fallen, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm
Warning areas and expiration times as-is.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
Saturday, a trough that was previously over the Ozarks area in
Missouri, will move over eastern Kentucky, with no expected
precipitation. Dry weather with a warming trend continuing. Highs
are expected to rise into the low to mid 40s, while lows drop into
the teens at night.
Sunday, another quick moving shortwave will ride the lee side of a
west cost ridge, south and east. This shortwave actually wont arrive
to the state until Monday evening. So dry weather continues, with
highs in the low to mid 50s. Lows Sunday night could drop into the
low to mid 20s in the valleys, and upper 20s on ridgetops.
Monday, the warming trend continues with highs in the low to mid 50s
during the day, and lows in the 30s at night. There may be some low
end shower chances (15-20% chance) after midnight Monday, spreading
into the area from the east, with the quick moving shortwave.
Tuesday, some models and ensembles suggest another shortwave
following a similar track as the previous one, out of southern
Canada, however models diverge in the depth (or how south) the track
goes, as well as timing. The GFS shows a deeper trough producing
rain showers through the afternoon Wednesday, while the Canadian
model has a shallower trough with the bulk of the rain showers
passing north of Kentucky. Highs are forecast to range from the low
50s across the north to upper 50s along ans south of Jackson. Lows
Tuesday night will generally remain in the 30s.
Next Wednesday should see increasing clouds through the day, as the
next approaching trough will bring showers and rain to the area
Wednesday evening into Thursday. Highs Wednesday warm into the upper
50s to near 60 in spots, with lows in the upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
An area of snow will move across the area through around 15Z, with
the activity peaking during the first 6 hours of the period. This
is leading to gradual deterioration to MVFR and IFR ceilings and
or visibilities as it passes. Some areas of improvements to VFR in
between lingering snow showers between 09Z and 15Z. With daytime
heating, the stratocu may tend to fill back in with isolated to
scattered snow showers or flurries through around 21Z. These
should taper off as drier air begins filter in and high pressure
noses into eastern KY. Gradual improvements to VFR should occur
from west to east for most locations by the ned of the period.
Winds will average north to northwest around 5KT through 12Z, but
increase to around 10KT from the northwest for much of the time
from 12Z to 00Z. As the high begins to build in winds will slacken
and gradually become light and variable to end the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ044.
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
Winter Storm Warning until noon EST today for KYZ050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 3:26 AM EST---------------
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