IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 16, 12:33 PM EST220
FXUS63 KIWX 161733
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1233 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Northwest winds with gusts up to 40 mph in some areas will
cause widespread drifting and areas of blowing snow in places
where there is snow on the ground, especially in rural, open
areas and on N-S oriented roads.
- Temperatures plummet overnight tonight into Monday morning. It will
be a very cold start to the work week on Monday with lows in
the single digits and highs only in the low to mid teens. Wind
chills will struggle to make it above zero and will be as
cold as 5 to 15 below zero during the morning hours.
- Cold air remains in place throughout the week with another
chance for snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
Synoptic snowfall is nearly clear of the forecast area. As was
feared yesterday, NW areas saw very little snow (most areas inch
or less) with 1 to 2 inches (few higher reports) further
inland. Worst of the accumulating snowfall is likely done well
inland, especially I-69 east. However, winds will increase,
causing plenty of drifting snow and pockets of blowing snow.
Will monitor through the next several hours with some potential
to end headlines early in these areas. Closer to the lake, lake
effect already rapidly ramping up with vsbys 1/2 to 1 1/2 sm in
snow and blowing snow. Will need to watch if band remains semi
stationary leading to locally higher accumulations. In addition,
will be monitoring an increased potential for snow squalls
given the much higher winds expected with what may already be
some fairly intense bands.
Otherwise forecast is on track for now with highs already
reached as temps will fall through the day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
A deepening surface low centered near Paducah, KY will lift
northeastward this morning into eastern Ohio. The track of this
surface low is further west (by about 50 to 100 miles) than what was
previously forecast about 12-24 hours ago, which has led to some
forecast changes. While heavy snow is still possible early this
morning, the snowfall forecast has trended down in regards to snow
amounts due to the shift in the track of the low pressure system.
Synoptically, this is a decent setup for snowfall, but moisture is
greatly lacking. A large precipitation shield of thunderstorms and
heavy rain across the Ohio River Valley has suppressed a lot of the
moisture that would be needed to generate heavy snow. Nevertheless,
some snow is still expected overnight into the morning, particularly
along the US 24 corridor. Once thunderstorm activity trends down
across the Ohio River Valley, that will allow for some low level
moisture to stream up into our area. Temperatures are slowly
dropping to near or slightly below freezing at this hour, with a
transition from rain to snow occurring right now in Fort Wayne.
Rain/freezing rain will transition to all snow area-wide in the next
few hours as cold air wraps around the backside of the system, with
the best chances for 1-3" snow to fall along the US 24 corridor.
Snow is likely to fall along the US 24 corridor before 10 AM, with
potential for slick roads. Be cautious if you must be out on the
roads later this morning!
After the main area of snow pivots through the area, lake effect
snow showers prevail during the afternoon/evening. Lake effect snow
showers will initially be downwind of Lake Michigan, with a
lull in precipitation expected over northeast Indiana and
northwest Ohio around midday. Favorable parameters for lake
effect includes northerly winds and low level convergence,
delta-Ts of -15C, and negative theta-e lapse rates. Because of
the strong low level convergence and Lake Michigan-Superior
connection, lake effect snow showers should extend fairly far
inland away from Lake Michigan by the afternoon. In any lake
effect snow showers, watch out for quickly reduced visibilities
and snow- covered roads. Additionally, as the surface low exits
to the northeast Sunday morning and continues to deepen, a tight
pressure gradient will develop across our area and result in
very strong winds this afternoon/evening. Northwest winds start
to increase by daybreak and be sustained around 20-25 mph by the
afternoon. Wind gusts up to 40 mph will cause blowing snow in
places where there is snow on the ground, especially in rural,
open areas and on N-S oriented roads. Expect sharply reduced
visibilities (either due to falling and/or blowing snow) and
hazardous travel throughout the day today. A Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect for the entire area through 7 PM EST
tonight to account for these hazards. Visibilities should
improve as winds diminish late this evening. Winds shift from
the northwest to west, with any lingering lake effect snow
showers tapering off by early Monday morning.
Colder air arrives and is anticipated to stick around for much of
the work week as a large area of high pressure overspreads and
expands across the Central CONUS. Temperatures rapidly fall from the
20s tonight into the single digits by Monday morning. Wind chills
Monday morning will be as cold as -5 to -15 degrees, with wind
chills struggling to get above zero during the daytime hours.
Temperatures will remain seasonably cold with highs only in the
teens through Friday. It will be mainly dry this week with the
highest PoPs coinciding with a system that could impact the Ohio
River valley in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. Depending on
where this system tracks, some snow showers could be possible in our
area, especially Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures finally
climb above freezing by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
Snow has ended at FWA and ceilings have improved to MVFR with
10SM visibility. However, northwesterly winds will be gusty up
to 30-35 kts and blowing snow could reduce visibility. For the
moment, SBN is also snow free and MVFR, but a lake effect band
is slowly makings its way east. This could impact the terminal
between 18Z and 22Z, bring conditions back down to IFR. Some
models are also suggesting some of this lake effect could make
it all the way to FWA between 20Z and 00Z, so did include
mention in the TAF. By later tonight, snow should be ending and
SBN will stay MVFR while FWA should rise to VFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Cobb
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 16, 12:33 PM EST---------------
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