LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 16, 3:19 AM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...224
FXUS64 KLIX 160919
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
319 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
Frontal boundary will clear lower Plaquemines Parish about the
time the forecast package goes out, although it may take another
hour or two beyond that for precipitation to totally end across
all land areas.
Trough axis will pass to the east of the area by mid-morning with
colder, drier air moving into the area. There may be some
temperature recovery today...but no more than 5-10 degrees at
best. Overnight lows tonight will be 20 to 25 degrees colder than
this morning. There's some potential for temperatures to fall to
the freezing mark over southwest Mississippi briefly toward
sunrise Monday, if the winds go calm. At present, it's
questionable whether freezing temperatures will be widespread
enough to justify a watch/warning.
Temperatures will moderate a bit on Monday, but will still remain
a bit below normal for mid-February. Guidance is relatively close
on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
Another shortwave will move across the lower Mississippi River
Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The front that is
moving off the coast this morning will not make a lot of northward
progress on Tuesday. As low pressure moves along the coast Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning, a fairly solid area of rain will
spread inland. The heaviest rain is likely to remain offshore, but
widespread 1-2 inch rain totals are likely. Higher amounts would
be possible if the frontal boundary tracks further north than
expected.
An even colder and drier airmass will arrive behind that system.
Global models and ensembles still not in agreement as to the
magnitude of the cold air, with the ECMWF and its ensemble quite
a bit colder than the GFS based data. The ECMWF numbers returned
to the colder values that were being advertised several runs ago.
Its not quite to the level of the cold air we saw last month, but
it is well below normal. Likely to necessitate Freeze and/or Cold
Weather products for portions of the area for at least Thursday
and Friday mornings.
Another shortwave will move across the region Friday night or
Saturday. Whether precipitation remains offshore or moves inland
depends on which model family one follows, so we'll hold onto the
NBM deterministic PoP and temperature solutions for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
Main concerns with this TAF package will be the line of TSRA
currently moving across the area. The line should be east of all
terminals by about 09z. Behind the line, there will be several
hours of MVFR ceilings before drier air takes hold and clouds
scatter out. This should occur by early afternoon at the latest.
Gusty northwest to north winds behind the front could gust to 30
knots or so (35 knots at KNEW) through much of the daytime hours
on Sunday before subsiding around sunset.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
For the protected waters, will keep the Small Craft Advisory this
morning, then Small Craft Exercise Caution for this afternoon and
tonight. Will carry Small Craft Advisory for all open waters
today and tonight. After a brief lull Monday and Monday night,
likely to need advisories for Tuesday into at least Wednesday
night or Thursday with the next system.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 55 31 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 59 36 61 43 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 64 36 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 62 42 59 47 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 64 36 58 41 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 67 35 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536-
538.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ550-552-555-
557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ552-555-557-
570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 16, 3:19 AM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
