CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 17, 9:53 PM EST378
FXUS61 KCLE 180253
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
953 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure builds into the region tonight through the
midweek. An upper level low passes through the Great Lakes mid
week. High pressure builds into the Eastern United States
through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
930 pm update...
Well this late evening forecast update comes with some small
adjustments to the near term hourly POPs due to a slight
unexpected southward shift of the ongoing lake effect snow
showers. Over the last hour or two, there has been a southward
shift with several bands lake effect snow that continue to
remain persistent originating from the western basin of Lake
Erie this evening. We added some scattered POPs into the
Cleveland metro area and the north coast for a few hours through
about 06z. It appears that the lake effect may continue for at
least several more hours before drier air advecting should
eventually turn the snow showers off by the predawn hours
tomorrow morning. There could be some additional light snowfall
accumulation through the rest of the night of a dusting to
another localized inch or two if snow showers persist over a
location.
700 pm update...
Overall the ongoing forecast remains on track with this mid
evening update. The only adjustment we made with the forecast
through the late evening and overnight hours was regarding the
hourly POPs in far NEOH and NWPA. The POPs needed some trimming
both in coverage area and were a little too high given the
trends over the past couple of hours. We cut back but left
scattered to likely POPs for the lakeshore areas of Lake and
Ashtabula Counties in far NEOH. We also trimmed back most the
POPs for Crawford County PA but remain scattered to light POPs
for much of Erie County PA through the late evening. Going
forward into the overnight, the lake effect snow showers will
gradually decrease and come to an end by the predawn hours of
Tuesday morning.
Previous discussion...
High pressure is influencing much of northern Ohio with
residual low level moisture being fairly consistent across
northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. There has been
a persistent lake effect band with the mean flow being westerly
or just north of westerly impacting mainly northwest
Pennsylvania. This snow band has overachieved at times as we've
seen visibility drops below half a mile for an extended period
of time. Snowfall is expected to continue through midnight
tonight and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to account
for the increased snowfall totals of 3-5 inches for Erie Co.,
PA. Snowfall elsewhere along the snowbelt is expected to be
minimal with totals less than half an inch. Drier low level air
will move in after midnight tonight cutting off the moisture
supply for the lake effect and snowfall should taper off into
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The rest of Tuesday will be
dry for all the region.
Temperatures tonight will drop down into the low single digits
underneath the surface arctic high pressure with radiational
cooling. Winds will subside quicker west of I-77, though to the
east there will still be some gustier winds up to 20 mph that
will bring wind chills values down well below zero. Mostly
everyone will have wind chills down -5 to -10 degrees below zero
tonight with northwest Pennsylvania dropping to -15 to -20. A
Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for those counties in
Pennsylvania. Temperatures on Tuesday will be cold in the low to
mid teens with wind chills down around zero. Tuesday night will
bring another night of single degree temperatures and below
zero wind chills.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds into the northern Great Plains on Wednesday,
with this ridge extending eastward into the southern Great Lakes.
Even so, an upper-level trough approaches from the west, so cold
temperatures will remain with upper-level clouds building in from
the west ahead of this trough (so won't even benefit from some
sunshine on Wednesday. Light snow develops late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning associated with this. While overall QPF/snow is
expected to be quite light (around 0.5 to 1 inch of snow areawide),
have trended PoPs upward to 50-70% due to increasing confidence. Low-
level moisture lingers through the day Thursday, which should result
in isolated to scattered snow showers lingering through the day
Thursday. This may add additional scattered light snow accumulations
of an inch or less. Isolated to scattered lake effect snow showers
could linger in Northwest Pennsylvania Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The high pressure centered over the northern Great Plains builds in
on Friday, becoming centered over the region Friday night before
gradually shifting southeastward to the southeastern CONUS Saturday
and then off the Atlantic on Sunday. Friday temperatures remain on
the chilly side with temperatures below normal by about 10 degrees,
though we should see temperatures rebound through the weekend with
southerly flow and peaks of sunshine. There is a low chance for
precipitation Sunday night into Monday with what would likely fall
in the form of snow, though naturally there is a fair amount of
uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Most of the area and TAF sites are seeing VFR to pockets of
MVFR ceilings. The VFR and mostly clear skies are across the
NWOH into most of NEOH this evening. The only exception is the
lakeshore areas of the primary Snowbelt or far NEOH and NWPA is
still being impacted by scattered lake effect snow showers and
MVFR ceilings around ERI. We expect conditions will bounce
around from MVFR to brief IFR possible at ERi through the late
evening due to passing snow showers. Ceilings will be around
2000 to 3000 feet and visibility bouncing around 2sm to 5sm
through about 06z overnight at ERI. Gradual improvement to VFR
ceilings will return at ERI by the predawn hours Tuesday
morning. Elsewhere, we are anticipating fair weather skies with
high level clouds increasing for this TAF period. Overall, VFR
ceilings will return by Tuesday morning and drop to around 3500
to 5000 feet towards the end of the time period Tuesday evening.
Winds will breezy from the west-northwest 8 to 13 knots tonight.
There could be a few gusts early this evening up to 20 to 25
knots for TAF sites closer to the lakeshore. Winds will remain
from the W-NW on Tuesday 8 to 12 knots.
.Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Wednesday through
Thursday night with snow showers across the region and lake
effect for the northern terminals. High pressure builds in to
end the week and for the beginning of the weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Nearshore observations show southwest winds in the 20 to 30 knot
range, though forecast data shows that winds should diminish rather
quickly this evening into tonight as high pressure builds in.
Because of this, have opted to not renew the Marine Weather
Statement for ice floes. Southwest winds continue diminishing on
Tuesday and Wednesday to 10 knots or less as high pressure builds
in. Northwest winds around 15 knots develop on Thursday following
the passage of trough before weakening on Friday as high pressure
builds in. Southwest winds of around 15 to 25 knots develop Saturday
and Sunday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001-002.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...Griffin/23
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 17, 9:53 PM EST---------------
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