IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 9:30 PM EST768
FXUS63 KIWX 140230
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
930 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of snow and freezing rain arrives Friday night
into early Saturday, before a temporary transition to rain/mix
Saturday afternoon.
- Much colder air returns late Saturday night into Sunday,
bringing yet another round of light snow. Seasonably cold
temperatures persist through the work week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
No major changes anticipated to the forecast for the remainder
of the overnight. Lake effect snow showers and flurries have
largely diminished although low level flow trajectories will be
favorable for continued lake effect low clouds at least through
the early portions of the overnights. Robust mixed layer from
earlier today has been stubborn to wane this evening with some
lingering gusts to 20 to 25 mph across portions of the area.
These gusts should diminish over next hour or two as low level
ridge axis beings to build in from the west. Core of low level
thermal trough is already bypassing the area to the east with
weak warm advection developing overnight across northern
Illinois. However, the combination of better decoupling with
the incoming ridge axis, clear skies, and recent new snowfall
across northwest/portions of north central Indiana should allow
temperatures to approach the lower single digits above zero for
mins. These coldest mins are still anticipated across far
west/southwest portions of the area which received the recent
snowfall and are in closer proximity to the incoming low level
ridge axis overnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
Some light lake effect enhanced snow showers will continue over the
next couple of hours before sky coverage begins to gradually clear
out from west to east through the afternoon/evening hours. Strong
radiational cooling will allow overnight temps (Fri morning). For
this reason, morning lows will get nudged down a couple more degrees
but still remain in the single digits. Highs temperatures tomorrow
will remain on the chilly side with highs in the 20s. Combined with
afternoon winds increasing out of the south-southeast at 8-12mph,
it'll feel like it's in the teens during the afternoon.
Our next storm system arrives tomorrow night, bringing a mixed bag
of snow, rain, and freezing rain into Saturday. Initially we should
see all snow as the precip type, but low-level warm air advection
(850mb temps climbing up to 1.5C by 06Z Saturday) will tend to favor
freezing rain during the overnight hours, especially across the
southern half of the forecast area. Forecast ice accumulations of a
couple hundredths are possible, mainly south of US-30. Snowfall
amounts from Friday night through Saturday range from around 0.5
inches in the south to 3-4 inches across the north, with a 40-50% of
exceeding 4 inches across the southern Michigan counties.
Temperatures will warm on Saturday afternoon, and we will deal with
a period of chilly rain as highs climb up into the mid-upper 30s. A
shot of colder air brought in by a cold front will change us back
over to snow, with another 1-2 inches expected through Sunday
evening. Temps will also be chilly on Sunday, with highs only in the
20s. A favorable set up for lake effect snow will commence for the
start of the work week, so expect some additional impacts to persist
across portions of Michiana.
Final note... Temperatures will be cold next week with lows on
Monday in the single digits to near zero. Couple this with winds of
10-15mph will make it feel bitterly cold, with wind chills of 5 to
15 degrees below zero. Highs are expected to remain in the teens on
Monday and this will continue through the work week. So, keep the
heavier coats out of the closet for now.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
Passage of upper level trough and accompanying low/mid level
thermal trough will bring an end to the lake effect snow showers
and flurries this evening. A fairly uneventful aviation weather
forecast period is in store the next 24 hours with just some
high level clouds streaming in from the west on Friday. Gusty
west winds to begin the period will quickly lose their gusty
nature after 01Z this evening as a low level ridge axis builds
in from the west. Winds likely to go light and variable for a
time overnight before coming south-southeast in the 5 to 10 knot
range for Friday as the low level anticyclone drifts east of
the area.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 9:30 PM EST---------------
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