LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 11:33 AM CST ...New AVIATION...630
FXUS64 KLIX 111733
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1133 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
The region currently sits under a pretty active southwest flow
aloft. This flow has helped stall a weak front just to our south
yesterday and it appears to remain in this area at least for a few
more hours before a shortwave upstream begins to help it lift
northward later today. The front again hangs up just to our north
well within the mean upper level flow regime. Ripples/impulses
within this flow will help generate shower and thunderstorm
develop across portions of the CWFA today and tonight. Although
the best POPs will remain just to our north over CenLa and MS
today. Still, cannot rule out scattered showers and perhaps even a
thunderstorm as lapse rates modestly improve this afternoon.
Going into tonight a strong impulse ejects northeastward allowing
a surface low to develop over southeast Texas before it quickly
moves northeast along the surface boundary. As the low deepens,
expect low level flow to strengthen with breezy conditions for
most of the CWFA on Wednesday. As the trough out west moves
eastward, the front will finally also nudge toward our region late
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Taking a quick look at CAMs as well
as parameters indicate there will be a shot (maybe two) at severe
weather with this feature as it moves east Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit questionable
depending on convection and cold pool dynamics with the frontal
passage. That said, effective bulk shear 50kts or so along with
an increasing H85 LLJ of 40-45kt will be more than enough shear.
Directional shear given the orientation may be lacking a bit,
still SRH of 200-300 m2s2 will get the job done. Also, any
sunshine on Wednesday will destabilize the environment and with
lapse rates really improving, think this will be the key to the
severe probs. Models are mixed in terms of solutions with some
showing a better QPF signal with less surfaced based instability
around and a bit cooler. Whereas others are a bit drier and
eventually erupt showers and storms along a line and perhaps
isolated supercells ahead. Keeping all of that in mind, damaging
wind gusts appear to be the greatest threat, but mesovorts will
also be possible with such high bulk shear values. Any southwest
to northeast facing bowing segments will have the potential to
produce QLCS mesovorts, not to mention again some of the CAMs
showing isolated cells head of the final line...so there is the
potential for a few tornadoes as well. Additionally, cannot rule
out at least a localized flooding rain threat, especially as
vegetation remains mostly dormant. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
By the start of the long term, the front will have moved into the
northern Gulf and stalled. Cannot rule out a rogue shower or two
Thursday behind the front. Friday appears to be on the dry side
as dry air filters into the region behind the front. Going into
Saturday eyes shift to the western tier states as a fairly robust
shortwave rounds the base of the large scale trough over the
western half of the country. As the short wave moves eastward, the
surface front lifts quickly back north allowing for a strong
southerly return flow to set up bringing back moisture. As the
aforementioned H5 trough moves east, a surface low develops by
Saturday across the midsouth and quickly moves northeast. As the
broad scale trough out west shifts a bit eastward, a cold front
is forecast to move through the region late Saturday or Sunday. At
this range the globals are struggling a bit temporally, but both
ECM and GFS synoptically are favorable for perhaps another risk of
severe weather this weekend.
Behind the front, CAA does take shape with temperatures dropping
back into the 50s to start the new workweek and overnight lows
drop back into the 30s across the region. This cool down looks to
be very temporary as the trough moves east pretty quickly allowing
for a more progressive or warmer zonal flow to set up across the
CWFA to end the long term. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
Varied conditions will be the rule at the terminals through
tomorrow afternoon. This afternoon, conditions will range from VFR
at the coastal terminals of HUM, MSY, NEW, and GPT to IFR at the
more inland terminal of MCB where a low stratus deck will remain
socked in through the day. Tonight, a band of rain will also move
into MCB and this will produce a period of reduced visibilities
between 1 and 3 miles starting around 00z and lasting through at
least 06z. The other terminals will see lower rain chances
tonight, and this is reflected by PROB30 groups that generally run
from 06z to 12z as scattered showers pass by the terminals.
Ceilings will also drop back into IFR range at all of the
terminals after 03z and will remain between 300 and 800 feet
through 15 to 16z tomorrow morning. The ceilings will begin to
quickly lift into MVFR range after 16z as temperatures warm and
increased boundary layer mixing takes hold. Due to the stronger
winds in place tonight, fog is not expected to be a concern. PG
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
Mostly CIG reductions this morning below IFR thresholds. Some
improvement will take shape, however, CIGs will remain in MVFR
ranges at best with stratus remaining over the region. Brief VFR
conditions may materialize in places, but this will be brief.
Brief scattered showers will also be possible off and on for most
terminals. Covered with TEMPOs and PROBs respectively. There is a
nonzero chance for a thunderstorm or two to impact sites, however,
confidence and coverage are very low at this time. Winds will
increase today with some sites reaching 20kt gusts at times.
Otherwise, we'll continue to watch possible VIS reductions toward
the end of this cycle. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
Low level flow will increase as a surface low develops over Texas
and moves into the TN Valley on Wednesday. This will increase
winds and seas with cautionary headlines expected for the
nearshore waters and tidal lakes and SCA conditions anticipated
beyond 20nm. Conditions will improve later this week, but moderate
winds and seas can still be anticipated. Another cold front moves
through the area this upcoming weekend with more hazardous
conditions developing on either side of the front Saturday and
especially Sunday. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 77 60 78 52 / 70 80 70 90
BTR 82 65 82 57 / 40 50 80 80
ASD 81 65 81 59 / 10 40 80 80
MSY 81 67 82 61 / 10 40 70 70
GPT 74 63 76 58 / 20 40 60 80
PQL 79 66 80 61 / 30 40 40 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 11:33 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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