IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 6:37 AM EST061
FXUS63 KIWX 111137
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
637 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Expect mostly cloudy skies today with chances for snow near
Lake Michigan through early afternoon. Little to no
accumulation is expected. Highs today will be in the upper 20s
and 30s, and lows tonight will fall into the teens and low
20s.
- A significant winter storm is expected to bring a wintry mix
of snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the area Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Snow and ice accumulations are
likely, with the greatest travel impacts along and north US
24.
- Another system with a wintry mix may impact the area this
weekend. Temperatures are generally averaging near to slightly
below normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 610 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
I apologize for the lateness in the AFD this morning-there were some
technical difficulties with our snow maps that had to be addressed.
Expanded the winter storm watch to the southeast with this forecast
package. Confidence is medium-certainly enough to warrant a watch
(criteria is 50 percent confidence in reaching warning criteria-
which includes impacts to travel). I have the greatest confidence in
more snow accumulation vs. a mix in the northwest (initial watch
area near Lake MI), where the precipitation type may end up either
all snow or a mix of snow/sleet (more freezing rain potential as you
continue south and eastward). Along US 24 is where things get
tricky. Ensembles are generally still thinking the further west
snow/mix line--but the latest deterministic guidance runs are
suggesting a southeastward shift. If the southeastward shift occurs,
then higher snow accumulations are possible further southeast from
Fulton, OH down southwest to White county, IN. Opted to limit the
watch further north than that in collaboration with neighbors [it
now extends from Starke to Whitley Counties, IN] as it's possible
the duration of precipitation may be shorter (dry slot-again
depending on where it ends up) and the confidence in precipitation
type is lower.
It's possible that we see more of a sleet/snow mix in the area of
the expansion, with freezing rain becoming more likely as you head
closer to US 24. If we end up mixing with more sleet north of
US 24 it could cut snow totals down somewhat from what I have in
there (3-6 inches)-but travel impacts may still be significant.
If we get more freezing rain initially, then it becomes snow
covered and the Wed evening and Thu morning commutes could be
difficult. Otherwise, if the more southeast solutions verify,
snow amounts will be greater (and the axis of heaviest
precipitation will be shifted southeast).
As for ice accumulation, take it with a grain of salt as confidence
is still pretty low as to how much and where that line is, but have
generally from a glaze to around 0.1" (some slightly higher in far
SE). If the further southeast solutions verify, we'll see less ice
accumulations (especially along/north of US 24).
Outside of our storm system, there still is potential for the
weekend storm (could be significant), so maintained higher end pops
for that period. Additionally, there is potential for some light
snow in the far northwest this morning into the early afternoon as a
decaying cold front sinks southeastward. Little to no accumulation
is expected. Highs will be in the upper 20s and 30s today, and
overnight lows will be in the teens and 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
Surface high pressure will remain over the region and bring VFR
conditions to northern Indiana through the TAF period. Winds
will be light until the surface pressure gradient begins to
tighten with the approaching surface low at FWA after 06Z.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning for INZ005>009-012-014-017-103-104-116-203-204-
216.
OH...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning for OHZ001-002.
MI...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 6:37 AM EST---------------
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