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738 FXUS64 KLIX 100943AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA343 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025Most of the isolated showers from last evening have dissipatedthis morning. The main story for now is the fog potential. And atthe time of writing this discussion more like the lack thereof. Avery weak surface front has positioned itself generally along theI10/12 corridor this morning. Fog behind it is far less likelygiven the much lower dewpoints. However, advection fog that we'veseen the last several morning isn't developing because the flowright along the front is mostly calm. That said, should be a greatopportunity for radiational fog as moisture pools right ahead of the boundary, right? Well, not quite. See, we are still dealing with mostly overcast skies limiting the development of radiationalfog. HUM has received some advection fog this morning and feel the best potential will be right along the SE LA coast that may beslightly removed from the surface boundary where again the surface pressure gradient has broken down. Today, the aforementioned front should dissipate over the regiononly leaving a residual weak surface trough. At the surface, light easterly flow will start to transition again to a more southerly flow. With the trough in place, a weak upper H5 impulse,and some decent low level moisture hanging around, cannot rule out an isolated shower or two like yesterday evening...mainly along and south of I10/12 this afternoon. Going into Tuesday we look upstream as an upper level shortwavebegins to round the base of the larger scale trough over thewestern states. As the trough moves east from Baja California intocentral TX by early Wednesday, a front will begin to slidesouthward toward our region. On Tuesday we cannot rule out anisolated shower or two as the surface flow begins to increase(frictional convergence) as well as perhaps a weak ripple in theactive southwesterly flow aloft. However, the best potential forrain/thunderstorms will be on Wednesday as the upper levelshortwave mentioned above moves eastward and interacts with thesurface front. As it does we'll need to watch at least for aconditional risk for severe weather on Wednesday prior to thefrontal passage late Wednesday/early Thursday. As of now globalforecast soundings do show some instability generally between1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE. As well as effective bulk shear numberswell within the favorable range. Still have a bit to watch thenumbers, but there is enough support around for at least mentionof severe on Wednesday. PWAT values are increasing as well and sogiven the flow regime and perhaps a couple of rounds of showersand storms from Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe, there couldbe a localized hydro threat especially along and north of I10/12where the strongest QPF signal resides. (Frye) &&.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025Thursday the front moves through, however, with mostly southwestflow aloft, the front hangs up across the northern Gulf. As thefront stalls, the globals begin to struggle just a bit in terms ofhighlighting rainfall. One would think there would be someisentropic ascent on the northern edge of the front and the ECMdoes provide that (GFS less bullish), but the ECM and the GFS forthat matter waste no time lifting the residual cold front north as a warm front on Saturday. So, Thursday looks like it could be mostly dry...Friday isentropic upglide precip generally light, then Saturday maybe dry again in the warm sector ahead of the next system that should be developing over Oklahoma at this point.Regardless, models are in great agreement on a cold frontal passage through the region later this weekend. And with the strongdynamics at play with this one, there is at least another signal for severe weather potential at least synoptically, but there is plenty of time to monitor this system as it's nearly a week out. (Frye) &&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025VFR conditions hangs in the area for most terminals for a little while longer but low stratus and fog should eventually start to impact terminals. BTR and MCB and possibly HDC are most likely to only see the low stratus while the rest are inclined to see fog. Reductions to IFR to LIFR at times are likely overnight into the early morning hours. After 16-17z, conditions should begin to improve but will remain at MVFR due to ceilings. -BL&&.MARINE...Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025Outside of the ongoing marine fog issues, fairly benign marineconditions across the local waters. These conditions will continueuntil around midweek or so before low level southerly onshore flowbegins to increase. This will likely produce cautionary headlinesfor the tidal lakes and nearshore waters. However, beyond 20nm mayneed SCA headlines. Eventually, conditions will improve going intolate week and to the start of the weekend where generally moderatewinds and seas are expected. However, conditions decline again bymid to late weekend with a stronger cold front moving into theregion. (Frye) &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 66 55 77 63 / 10 0 50 60 BTR 73 60 82 67 / 0 0 40 50 ASD 72 60 80 65 / 30 10 40 30 MSY 71 62 80 67 / 30 10 40 30 GPT 71 59 74 63 / 20 10 50 40 PQL 75 60 78 65 / 10 10 50 40 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ056>060- 064>070-076>090.GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557.MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ083>088.GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557.&&$$SHORT TERM...RDFLONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...BLMARINE...RDF
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Topic: [Alert]LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 10, 3:43 AM CST ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (Read 285 times)
