JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 11:23 PM EST057
FXUS63 KJKL 120423 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1123 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Any remaining winter weather near/north of the Mountain Parkway
will wind down tonight.
- High water in some locations from prior rainfall will persist
overnight and through at least Wednesday.
- Heavy rainfall may occur during the weekend, with a possibility
of flooding.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2025
With light radar returns as well as some upstream and some high
resolution models having light precipitation into the overnight,
marginal temperatures and wetbulb temperatures observed and
anticipated for a few more hours to allow for pockets of freezing
rain in some of the more northwest locations, opted to extend the
winter weather advisory out until 09Z Wed or 4 AM EST Wednesday.
Grids were freshened up based on observations and the above
trends.
UPDATE Issued at 744 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2025
Hourly grids were updated based on recent observation trends.
Steadier precipitation is expected to taper off throughout the
evening. Given the currently observed temperatures, the winter
weather advisory in the north remains valid and no changes are
needed at this point.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 543 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2025
The weather system affecting the area is ending with a whimper,
but it's been a challenging system to say the least, with models
not handling the winter weather portion of it very well. There has
still been some snow mixing in over the far northern portion of
the area late today. However, most of the precip seems to be
falling as liquid through the late afternoon. There are still some
locations reporting 32 degree temp in our north, giving some
potential for freezing rain. With warm ground going into the event
(actually helping to melt of snow), it would seem unlikely there
would be any additional significant travel problems. However, out
of an abundance of caution, it was collaborated with surrounding
offices early this afternoon to leave a Winter Weather Advisory in
place near/north of the Mountain Parkway, with headlines
extending into adjacent portions of neighboring office's forecast
areas. Remaining winter weather will wind down during the night,
and a relative lull in precip will arrive and carry into the day.
The next system will already take aim at us on Wednesday. A
longwave trough will progress east from the western CONUS. As this
happens, another surface wave will develop along the frontal
boundary near the northern Gulf coast, and this time become a
better developed low. The low will track north northeast through
KY Wednesday night. As it approaches, warm air advection and
insentropic lift will lead to more precip, aided by the right
entrance region of an anticyclonically curved upper jet. The
initial uptick in precip should be in the afternoon, perhaps
followed by a lull before the system's cold front arrives with
another increase in the night. The cold front should be exiting
southeast by 12Z, taking most precip with it. Models have not been
consistent in recent days concerning precip amounts. Blended QPFs
don't look particularly concerning, but it will still need to be
monitored, considering how wet the ground is and how high some
streams/river are.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2025
Active weather on tap in the extended portion of the forecast. Based
on the latest runs of the GFS, ECMWF, GFS Ensembles, and WPC
guidance, a storm system will be departing the area on Thursday.
Widespread clouds will linger over the area Thursday and Thursday
night, as low pressure moves away to the east. A few rain showers
may linger over the higher terrain along the VA border and the tier
of counties just west of those. A ridge of high pressure will then
settle over the region to finish out the week. While it will be dry
Thursday afternoon through Friday evening, cool temperatures will
prevail as winds shift to the west, northwest and eventually north.
Another strong weather system is expected to plow through the region
Friday night through Sunday evening. Heavy rainfall that could lead
to flooding is looking more likely Saturday and Saturday night, as a
powerful storm moves by to our north along with its surface cold
front. Rain will mix with and change over to snow on Sunday, as
colder air spills into the region behind the departing surface cold
front. It appears possible that light snowfall accumulations may
occur on Sunday, especially during the late morning and afternoon
hours, when the cold air first moves rapidly into the area.
Temperatures most days will max out in the 40s, with cooler readings
in the 30s on tap for Tuesday, behind a departing storm system. The
warmest day looks to be Saturday, when we could see the mercury
climb into the 50s across the area, as steady southerly flow sets up
across the area. A few locations along the TN border might even
reach 60. The coldest nights will see temperatures fall into the mid
teens to lower 20s. The warmer nights will see lows only falling
into the 30s. Tuesday night looks a bit cold as well, but should
only see lows in the 20s for most of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2025
Widespread IFR or MVFR was reported at issuance time with rain
south and wintry precipitation with snow and some pockets of
freezing rain in the north. As temperatures cool some FZRA could
occur briefly after 02Z at JKL and a tempo group for that was used
there. Overall, precipitation will continue to taper off to
drizzle or patchy rain or snow during the first 6 hours of the
period and then linger overnight. As another system nears the
region, renewed precipitation rates in the form of rain areawide
is expected after 15Z with this becoming more widespread between
18Z and 21Z. Ceilings mainly in the IFR range and in some cases
lower should linger overnight under low level northeast to east
flow. A mix of MVFR and IFR should continue during the last 12
hours of the period with low level southeast downslope flow
resulting in time of MVFR in the southeast, generally south of all
the TAF sites. However, as steadier rain develops late,
visibilities may also be reduced into the MVFR or IFR ranges.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-104-106.
Flood Watch until 7 AM EST Wednesday for KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-110-112>118-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 11:23 PM EST---------------
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