ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 4:05 PM EST494
FXUS61 KILN 112105
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
405 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley early
Wednesday and move northeast during the evening. The movement of
the low will be along a stationary front that will form over
northwest Ohio and southeast Indiana. Warm air to the southeast
of this track will bring rain, and the cold air along and
northwest of the track will see freezing rain and snow mix in on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The remainder of the work week
will be dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Snowfall earlier today did not produce the amounts that were
expected and some rain mixed in as well. This cut the overall
snowfall amounts that were forecast into this evening's advisory
and warning. Hence, the warning has been downgraded to an
advisory that is expiring before daybreak. The advisory has
been dropped in favor of letting the forecast show the chance of
snow continuing at times this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures still support a potential for freezing rain, but
this will occur from a warmer start and the ground would not be
susceptible to ice accumulation. In addition, the chance for
precip during the potential icy accumulations will be on the
decrease from west to east tonight.
Southeast of the I-71 corridor, temperatures will linger between
30 degrees and the freezing mark overnight. To the northwest,
current readings near freezing will see a slow but steady drop
into the mid and upper 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Frontogenesis will develop over the northwestern forecast area
during the afternoon and strengthen in the early evening. A
surface low will track northeast in the evening along what will
then be a stationary front. Precipitation - mainly rain - will
overspread the region as this low gets closer, acting as a
widespread area of lift to wring out available moisture.
Chances of rain will begin to increase in the afternoon, with
morning hours remaining essentially dry. Once the rain begins,
northwestern CWA will still be cold enough for this to fall as
freezing rain and snow mixture. This area is annotated by its
inclusion in a winter weather advisory that begins at noon,
ending overnight. Another wintery threat is found with lingering
precipitation from tonight's system in the early morning. This
will again be in the form of a wintery mix. However there are
factors limiting any real threat in the morning. A small spatial
footprint, continued west-northwest movement of the favored area
for mixed precip (temperatures rising) and a low chance for the
precipitation to begin with.
The remainder of the CWA looks to see the same timing and
increasing likelihood of precipitation throughout the day but
start and end as all rain.
Temperatures will continue to rise over the forecast area in the
evening, being in the warm sector of the northeastward tracking
low in northwestern CWA. In the northwest, temps will remain at
or around freezing through midnight after rising to that value
towards the noon hour. Enough of a rise is expected that
readings rise through the evening to around 50 in the
southeastern CWA, with everyone maxing out in the warm sector
close to midnight. After this time, the low will have moved into
northeastern Ohio. A trailing cold front will pass nw-se across
the CWA. The colder air will be significantly drier and mark the
ending of precipitation, area-wide by daybreak.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our region will be in the CAA pattern behind departing low pressure
on Thursday, along with drier air filtering in. Post frontal CAA
stratocumulus clouds will linger through much of the day.
Temperatures will not rise that much from morning lows. They will
range from the lower 30s west to the lower 40s east.
For Thursday night into Friday, a dry, but cold period is forecast
as high pressure traverses east across the Ohio Valley. Skies will
clear Thursday night followed by a good deal of sunshine on Friday.
After lows in the single digits to mid teens, highs on Friday will
range from near 30 north to near 40 south.
The weather pattern will be active for the upcoming weekend. A
frontal boundary will first make its way southeast into the region
Friday night into Saturday. Southern stream energy will then merge
with northern stream energy to produce deepening low pressure which
is forecast to track northeast Saturday night into Sunday across the
Ohio Valley. Rain and/or snow will be likely for the first part of
Saturday, followed by a warm up, then a cool down on the back side
of the low as we head into Sunday. Not only will there be the
potential for some wintry pcpn accumulations, but a period of heavy
rain will be possible, especially along and southeast of I-71 later
Saturday into Saturday night in association with the low pressure
system. With pwats pushing over 300 percent of normal, rainfall
amounts may range in the 2 to perhaps 4 inch rain which may result
in not only overland flooding but some river flooding as well. Pcpn
will likely change over to a period of snow on the back side of the
low on Sunday as the low departs to the northeast.
By Monday and Tuesday, mainly dry and and colder weather will invade
the region once again as high pressure pays a visit to the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. After a mild Saturday, temperatures will
become much below normal for early next week.
HWO: The potential for heavy rainfall Saturday into Saturday night
may lead to overland flooding as well as some river flooding.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A complex forecast is in play for this afternoon, given the dry
forecast at DAY CMH and LCK and wintery precip to the remaining
southern terminals. That being said, DAY will remain VFR through
this evening and see lowering cigs to MVFR overnight. Before the
end of the valid forecast at 18Z, cigs are progged to drop into
IFR below 1kft. Similar forecast is in store for CMH/LCK, though
the cig reduction will be a good bit later. VFR through 08Z then
dropping into MVFR and then the lower end of MVFR by 12Z,
continuing through the end of the forecast.
Further south and in the more tricky part of the forecast,
current observations had an initial shot of snowfall that
dropped cigs to 700' and vsbys to IFR in snow at CVG. Cigs
remain low, but vsbys are inching up and should rise back to VFR
in the next hour or two. Hedged here and at KLUK for the early
part of the forecast/afternoon hours with a MVFR vsby reduction
and temporary lifting of cigs above 1kft. For this evening, cigs
are expected to remain between 1-2kft with VFR vsbys. Closer to
12Z, cigs should begin to drop again into the IFR category below
1kft. This lower category will remain in play through the day
and vsbys should drop in mist before a round of rain works in
from the southwest. This rain should bring cigs down to LIFR
towards the latter hours of the extended 30 hour TAF at CVG.
ILN will be caught in between these forecasts and have the snow
threat ending before nightfall. Cigs will lower to MVFR and
slowly inch down through the nighttime hours. Towards daybreak,
expect cigs to fall below 1kft and vsbys become a prevailing
MVFR with mist ahead of the upcoming period of rain beyond the
18Z end time of the forecast.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through Thursday,
and again from Saturday through Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
OHZ081-088.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Wednesday to 4 AM EST
Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-042>044.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ082.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
KYZ094>100.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 4:05 PM EST---------------
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