IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 8, 12:51 PM EST855
FXUS63 KIWX 081751
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1251 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Winter weather advisories are in effect for Indiana and Ohio
counties through tonight. A special weather statement was
issued for counties in Michigan.
-A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow expected
today into tonight. Travel impacts are expected, particularly
along and south of the toll road. Ice and snow accumulations
are expected. Some residual icy roads possible tonight as
temperatures fall back below freezing, especially on untreated
surfaces.
-Tonight into Monday will be dry with variable cloud cover. The
next chance for snow will be Monday night into Tuesday, and
then again Wednesday into Thursday afternoon. Better chances
for accumulations will be with the Wed/Thu system. High
temperatures will be in the 20s and low to mid 30s, with lows
in the teens and 20s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
Precipitation, as of 17z moving into the southwestern parts of
the CWA. This complicated set-up has a northern disturbance
moving eastward across the northern Great Lakes and a southern
disturbance moving eastward across the southern Great Lakes. Our
area will be affected by the southern disturbance and is
beginning to move into the area now and will continue to move
eastward through the day into this evening. A wintry mix is
expected with mostly rain for our far southern counties which
will be likely to start out as some freezing rain, even a few
rumbles of thunder would not be out of the question with decent
instability present. Current visible satellite also shows a few
embedded convective towers within the system.
As we move further north, there will be a transition of
freezing rain, sleet, and snow with all three occurring almost
concurrently in some locations. The better chances for the
freezing rain will be along the SR-30 corridor and especially
east of I-69. Up to about 0.15" of ice may accumulate. Snow
chances with some light accumulations will be expected across
southern MI counties with less than an inch snow totals
expected. Please take special precautions travelling this
afternoon and evening and if you do not absolutely need to
travel it would be advised to stay off of the roads as roadways,
especially untreated surfaces will become slick. If driving,
slow down and give yourself extra time to get to your
destination. Highs today will be in the low 30s with locations
over southern MI only getting into the upper 20s.
Tonight, temperatures will drop into the low to middle 20s. So
any areas that received some rainfall and residual moisture from
today's precipitation will re-freeze potentially causing
further slick conditions. This of course will be most likely on
untreated surfaces and it would be best to treat roads that look
wet as potentially icy. Use caution.
We get a break in precipitation Sunday and Monday with highs in
the upper 20s to low 30s with Monday just a smidge warmer ahead
of a weak disturbance that moves in Monday night and through
Tuesday afternoon this time bringing light snow across the area..
At this time, an inch or less of snowfall will be possible with
this system. Highs on Tuesday, in the upper 20s to low 30s, and
will be the theme at least through Friday. Another more
organized system originating in the Four Corners region and
swinging up northeastward out of northern TX into our area on
Wednesday night into Thursday. This looks to be a better
snowfall producing system and should bring higher snow totals.
Will be continuing to monitor this system over the coming days
to nail down the details and exact track of the system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
Extremely challenge start to the TAF period as onset of wintry
precip is already underway at KFWA and shouldn't be far behind
at KSBN. Leading edge of returns is reaching the ground in some
locations as low level continue to rapidly saturate. Observer at
KFWA reported very light FZRA ahead of the area of advancing
higher returns. At our office we have started to see some very
light snow with a similar start suspected at KSBN. Have started
KSBN at SBN with a transition to FRZASN, some concern that
warmer temps may not get too far north and could end up more
sleet/snow but will watch trends. At KFWA, ptype should be FZRA
or maybe even some sleet at times. Some lightning has been
observed, but likely will remain south of KFWA.
All precip should depart this evening, possibly ending as some
freezing drizzle or very light snow. Will keep focus on current
window for now but some changes may be warranted.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this
evening for INZ005>009-012-014-017-018-103-104-116-203-
204-216.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for
INZ013-015-020-022>027-032>034.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for
OHZ024-025.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 8, 12:51 PM EST---------------
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