PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 10, 4:03 PM EST874
FXUS61 KPBZ 102103
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
403 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonable weather continues through tonight. An active
pattern will then bring several rounds of wintry weather this
week. Impactful snow accumulation is possible in the West
Virginia ridges Tuesday into Wednesday followed by a wintry mix
late Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and seasonable weather with high pressure through tonight.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Crossing high pressure and nearly zonal flow have allowed quiet
weather to start the week. Increasing subsidence with daytime
mixing and gradual low-level dry advection have allowed clouds
to scatter for PIT southwards. This has allowed for plentiful
sunshine this afternoon, and boosted temperatures a couple
degrees above forecast.
Clouds will increase again overnight with moisture advection
ahead of the next system. Despite calm winds, this will prevent
efficient radiational cooling. Lows will dip into the mid 20s
to the south and the upper teens to the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Accumulating snow Tuesday and Tuesday night, heaviest in the
ridges.
- Light freezing rain possible early Wednesday in the ridges,
but low certainty.
- Second system Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday will
bring mixed precip and freezing rain.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Two winter systems will impact portions of the area through the
short term:
Increasing moisture in southwesterly flow is expected Tuesday
with inverted troughing up the Appalachians and eventual
coastal low development Tuesday night. This system will be
supported synoptically by a period of right entrance region
upper level jet dynamics enhancing lift over the southern CWA.
Thus, most accumulating snow is expected south of Pittsburgh,
and impactful snow will mostly be limited to the ridges.
After slight decreases overnight, latest guidance has again
slightly bumped up snow totals across southern portions of the
area, and primarily in the ridges. Eastern Tucker county has a
greater than 70% chance of 6+ inches of snow, with a 40-70%
chance of at least 3 inches across the ridges and Laurel
Highlands. Lower elevations south of I-70 may see 1-3 inches,
with lesser snow farther north. Temperature profiles continue
to indicate an all snow event, though brief periods of rain may
mix in near/south of the WV/PA border Tuesday afternoon/evening
where warmer low- level air infiltrates. Precipitation begins
to taper from west to east later Tuesday night as coastal
transition occurs.
A Winter Storm Warning was issued for eastern Tucker County
Tuesday morning through Tuesday night where confidence in 6+
inches is high. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for other
ridge/highland locations.
There is some uncertainty about how quickly precipitation will
clear out of the ridges early Wednesday morning. Latest HREF
members suggest an earlier ending time, with lingering
precipitation quickly waning by 06z Wednesday. However, there is
a non-zero chance for lingering moisture and patchy freezing
rain or drizzle during the early morning hours. This threat will
continue to be monitored for possible Advisory/Warning extension
or quick Special Weather Statement for minor ice impacts in the
ridges.
A lull in precipitation is expected Wednesday morning before
increasing coverage again by Wednesday afternoon with the next
system. Ensembles generally agree that a 500mb trough will lift
from the central Plains Wednesday afternoon and into the
northeast CONUS by Thursday night, with a surface low riding
north near the Upper Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Model clusters
generally agree on this scenario with some minor
strength/timing differences; one lower-populated cluster
suggests an earlier handoff to a coastal low. In either case,
another round of widespread precipitation is likely. Given the
storm track and indications of a strong surge of warm 850mb air,
mixed precipitation including freezing rain is likely to be a
concern Wednesday afternoon into the overnight. Confidence in
significant ice accumulation is highest across eastern Tucker
County, where a Winter Storm Watch has been posted for Wednesday
afternoon through the overnight. However, an Advisory may be
needed across the ridges and north of I-80 where chances of at
least a glaze of ice are moderate.
Colder air spills in behind this system, with a change to snow
before precipitation ends by Thursday night. Precipitation
amounts with this system may need to be monitored for fresh
rises/impacts on some area rivers.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Precipitation wanes Thursday with dry weather on Friday.
- Another system this weekend will bring potentially-impactful
mixed precipitation.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Colder air spills in behind the Wednesday/Thursday system, with
a change to snow on Thursday morning before precipitation ends
by Thursday night. Precipitation amounts with this system may
need to be monitored for fresh rises/impacts on some area
rivers.
Another brief dry period appears possible later Thursday night into
Friday night with near to below-normal temperatures. This is before
another vigorous shortwave potentially takes aim at the Ohio Valley
next weekend. Strength and timing differences increase in the
ensembles as we approach Saturday and Sunday. Still, another
surge of temperature to above-normal is possible, along with
another possible round of mixed precipitation. Drier weather is
expected to kick-off the next work week.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Skies have begun clearing noticeably and VFR is making a welcome
return at area terminals. Scattered Cu fields have replaced more
widespread cloud coverage and those terminals that have not yet
reached VFR are expected to shortly. Winds are expected to taper
this evening and become light and variable overnight. High clouds
begin to filter into the region overnight ahead of our next low
pressure system.
The return of MVFR begins near the end of the current TAF period,
with clouds returning to terminals BVI on south. Snowfall is also
expected to begin near the same timeframe. With uncertainty of
timing and northward extent, MGW is the only site that has snow in
this current TAF suite.
Outlook...
A low pressure system is expected to travel south of the region
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Variations in low track will
dictate timing for onset of precipitation (snow), the extent of
the precipitation shield to the northwest, and degree of
restriction falls. Terminals southeast of KPIT are most likely
to experience higher snowfall rates and the lowest restrictions.
An active weather pattern will continue through next weekend that
leads to multiple rounds of precipitation and area restrictions.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST
Wednesday for PAZ074-076.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST
Wednesday for WVZ510>513.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday
for WVZ514.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
Wednesday night for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/MLB
AVIATION...AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 10, 4:03 PM EST---------------
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