JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 9, 5:52 PM EST014
FXUS63 KJKL 092252
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
552 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An active weather pattern will continue, with multiple weather
systems over the next week.
- The threat of heavy rainfall will return periodically, with the
greatest threats being Tuesday into Tuesday night, late
Wednesday into Wednesday night, and next weekend.
- The greatest potential for accumulating snow is from around dawn
Tuesday into Tuesday night, mainly for areas north of a line
from Mt. Vernon to Pikeville.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 552 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2025
A weak wave riding eastward along the north side of a surface frontal
boundary stalled well to our south may bring precipitation close
to our southern counties this evening. Late this afternoon, radar
is showing showers from our southern counties southward through
TN. However, this has been mainly virga in KY due to a very dry
layer around 850 mb. Although sprinkles or flurries may occur in
our far southern counties, outside of very isolated occurrences
it's likely that precip will remain below a hundredth of an inch.
As this wave moves on to the east tonight, any precip will end and
the mid level clouds associated with it will also depart. At that
point, our sky condition would be determined by the amount of
high clouds and lingering stratocu. High clouds would probably be
rather thin, but the confidence in coverage of low clouds is more
uncertain. The forecast will call for clouds breaking to the
greatest extent in our north and west, but confidence in the
degree of cloud cover left by morning is low. Whatever is left of
low clouds should finally dissolve on Monday, and sunshine
filtered through high clouds can then be expected.
The next system which will ride along the front to our south will
begin to take shape on Monday night. A longwave upper trough will
deepen over the western CONUS and warm/moist advection will begin
on the downstream side of the trough. The associated moisture
quickly gets carried east northeast atop the cold air on the north
side of the frontal boundary over the Deep South. Precip should
begin developing over our area from south to north before dawn on
Tuesday. Based on temperature profiles, the onset should be rain
in the far southern part of the forecast area and snow in the far
north. The big problem is in between. Models don't agree on
temperatures, and a model blend has been used as the best
estimate, but it is fairly low confidence.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 552 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2025
An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2025
Conditions at the start of the period are mostly MVFR (due to
ceilings), but there is some VFR present north of I-64 and near
the VA border. General improvement will occur through tonight,
with mostly VFR conditions expected by 00Z with the exception of
some locations in far south central and southeast KY. VFR is then
expected during the day Monday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 9, 5:52 PM EST---------------
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