IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 6, 9:04 AM EST229
FXUS63 KIWX 061404
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
904 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Road conditions to improve into early afternoon from both
salting operations and above freezing temperatures.
- Another wintry mix is possible Saturday into Saturday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
Visibilities have improved in many areas under the Dense Fog
Advisory, with just a few locations in NW Ohio indicating some
linger, patchy dense fog. Have opted to cancel the advisory a
bit early based on the trends.
As for the Winter Weather Advisory, untreated surfaces remain
slippery for many locations. Overall freezing line is resting
near the US-30 corridor and will slowly expand north as the sun
angle increases this morning ans some clearing arrives this
afternoon (especially west). Although we do climb above
freezing, it may take temperatures reaching 33 or 34 degrees to
see more substantial melting, so make sure to use caution when
out and about this morning. Have opted to just leave the
advisory in effect until 15Z. Otherwise, no new weather
concerns expected into tonight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
An area of vorticity pushes eastward through the area between 10 and
14z this morning allowing dry air advection to come in behind. This
should upset our lowered visibilities by 14 or 15z. Despite averaged
low to mid level cold air advection, surface temperatures are able
to rise given diurnal warming and some 850 mb warming by midday.
This should allow the area to warm above freezing and start melting
of the icing. A few additional shortwaves move through this
afternoon and evening to push cooler air into the area. Given drying
today and gusty winds, can see some of the wet areas dry out before
freezing, but a few areas of refreezing cannot be ruled out,
especially where residence time of above-freezing temperatures is
small north of US-6 and away from Lake MI.
Cooler air is around for Friday with temperatures in the upper 20s
to mid 30s. High pressure pushing through keeps the area dry though.
But it's not too long until our next trough pushes into the area
Saturday. Given dry air around Saturday morning, am hesitant to keep
chance PoPs in there and slight chance PoPs are also questionable.
Moistening will probably occur through the afternoon into the early
evening. Once moistening does occur there will be some question
about saturation in the DGZ. Much of the column is below freezing
aside from at 700 mb which is right near the 0 C line. As a result
could see drizzle, snow, and sleet at times. This initial batch is
out of here probably around 6z, but a transition to some lake
enhancement may allow a period of lake effect snow to form from then
into Sunday morning. Delta Ts are pretty meager at only 15C and
there's plenty of dry air below the inversion, which points towards
a weak event at least as portrayed on the GFS bufkit soundings. If
snow is able to fall uninterrupted by drizzle, initial estimates
are a 1 to 3 inch snowfall amount is possible north of US-30.
Whereas, some icing is possible south of the Toll Road and some
rain/drizzle will be possible south of a line from Winamac to Lima,
accumulating a tenth of ice or less.
High pressure returns keeping it dry Sunday and Monday, but phased
jets across the eastern half of the US helps invigorate a system
across the Appalachians and the southeastern US. There is some
uncertainty with this system, especially with it being 5 to 6 days
out, but models currently depict the northern portion of the
precipitation shield scraping our southern counties. This period
into the latter part of the next week bears watching for systems
that may affect the area.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
Freezing drizzle was diminishing at the start of the TAF period
over northeast Indiana. Visibilities have been gradually
improving over northern Indiana. Conditions will become VFR this
afternoon as the low pressure area lifts away from the area.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this
morning for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
Friday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 6, 9:04 AM EST---------------
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