LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 5:27 AM CST ...New AVIATION...229
FXUS64 KLIX 021127
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
527 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2025
Northern stream upper trough over the western Great Lakes and
upper Mississippi River Valley. Southern stream trough over Mexico
and far south Texas. Upper ridging centered over Cuba. At the
surface, high pressure over the Atlantic Coast had a westward
extension over the northern Gulf Coast. Satellite showed some high
clouds over lower Plaquemines Parish and much of the coastal
waters. There are a few patches of ground fog noted in
observations and web cameras, but nothing widespread at this time.
Temperatures at 3 AM CST were generally in the 40s, except for 52
degrees at Lakefront Airport with the warmer water temperatures in
Lake Pontchartrain nearby, and 39 at Pascagoula, which tends to
run cooler than most areas in this surface pattern.
The nearby upper features aren't really going to move much by
Monday evening, and surface high pressure will remain over the
northern Gulf Coast. This will keep the weather dry across the
area through Monday. With daytime winds gaining an onshore
component the next couple of days, we'll see moisture levels
gradually increase. Precipitable water values that were near 0.40
inch on the 00z LIX sounding last evening will be close to an inch
by Monday evening, and dew points will increase from the 40s to
the mid and upper 50s. There could be a few patches of radiation
fog both this morning and Monday morning. High temperatures are
expected to get into the 70s today, with the possible exception of
right at the beach on the Mississippi coast, where cooler water
temperatures may hold highs in the upper 60s. Low temperatures
Monday morning will be a bit warmer than the last couple mornings.
Highs Monday will generally be in the mid 70s. The GFS and ECMWF
temperature guidance is generally within a couple degrees of each
other, which gives more credence to the NBM deterministic numbers
in the same ballpark.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2025
At least through Wednesday, the medium range operational runs are
pretty similar with the upper trough/low to our southwest
remaining nearly stationary. Beyond that point, the GFS solution
diverged from what we were looking at 24 hours ago, forcing it
back westward over Mexico by next weekend, while the ECMWF
continued previous trends by opening it up, weakening it, and
taking it eastward across the Gulf. Somewhat surprisingly, the
difference between the two exhibited little to no impact on the
forecast locally, as both continue zonal flow across the northern
Gulf Coast. Weak onshore flow will continue through the end of the
work week with warm, moist air continuing over the area. With no
strong forcing mechanism, it is going to be difficult to get much
more than isolated to scattered afternoon showers or
thunderstorms. If there is going to be a "most favored" day for
convection, it would be Wednesday, when precipitable water values
are a bit higher than the surrounding days. Even then, 30 PoPs may
be overstating things. Fog will continue to be at least a minor
concern. However, wind speeds may not be sufficient to produce
widespread advection fog until perhaps Thursday or Friday morning.
Prior to that point, any fog development would be more likely
radiation type fog.
Overnight lows will continue to modify the next couple nights as
moisture levels slowly increase. For most of the area during the
long term portion of the forecast, temperatures are likely to
average 15 degrees or more above normal, with the possible
exception of the immediate coastline where cooler offshore waters
could limit warming during the afternoon hours. Expect some
locations to crack the 80 degree mark on multiple afternoons, with
at least some potential for daily record highs to be broken,
especially on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2025
A few localized patches of radiation type fog could produce brief
conditions near airfield minima for the next few hours, primarily
at KASD/KHUM/KGPT. This fog should mix out rather quickly by
14-15z. Little in the way of cloud cover other than some cirrus is
expected for the remainder of the day. Most of the overnight hours
should also see little in the way of cloud cover, but there will
be the potential for some patchy fog development again around
sunrise Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2025
Any weather concerns for marine interests should be limited to the
potential for fog development, and that probably wouldn't be any
sooner than Tuesday or Wednesday. Forecast winds look to remain
below 15 knots through the end of the week, even over the outer
waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 48 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 75 52 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 72 49 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 71 53 77 59 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 67 49 69 54 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 73 45 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 5:27 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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