CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 6, 7:31 PM EST838
FXUS61 KCLE 070031
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
731 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight. High will will build
from the west on Friday and become centered across the area on
Friday evening. A low pressure system will move through the
region Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
6:30 PM Update...
Added chance PoPs for the northern tier of counties over the
next few hours as a few flurries and light snow showers traverse
the lakeshore as the cold front drops southward. These will not
amount to much, with dry conditions likely after 03Z. Another
shortwave will cross eastern Lake Erie late tonight followed by
stronger cold air advection and 850 mb temps dropping to -18 C.
This combined with NW flow across Lakes Huron and Erie will
generate a few lake-effect snow showers. HREF guidance suggests
a band off Lake Huron could impact NW PA at times in the 08-11Z
timeframe before weakening and shifting east as the flow backs
Friday morning and drier air works in. With this in mind, added
high chance to likely PoPs in NW PA late tonight and early
Friday morning. Could see locally up to 0.5 inch of snow in the
higher elevations of NW PA.
Original Discussion...
Temperatures have remained fairly steady today with cloud cover
hovering over the region and all spots have stayed below 40
degrees. A cold front is over western Michigan this afternoon
and will progress eastward tonight, scouring out the low level
clouds and allowing for temperatures to fall back into the 20s
and perhaps upper 10s in NW PA. With the cold advection of the
front, there could be some lake clouds and very isolated snow
showers in NW PA late tonight but the quickly drying atmosphere
should make any of this very limited. Winds will pick up
tonight with the front and some gusts of 30 to 35 mph are
possible.
High pressure will build into the region for Friday and Friday
night. Weather conditions will be dry with decreasing west to
northwest winds. Highs will be in the 20s and lows will be a mix
of upper 10s and lower 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure enters the Ohio Valley from the south which will
provide the next chance for mixed precipitation across the region.
Precipitation chances will quickly increase Saturday morning and
afternoon while 850mb temperatures gradually warm throughout the
day. The potential for freezing rain across a portion of the region
remains possible as model soundings continue to indicate a warm nose
aloft. Highest confidence in ice accretion remains along a line from
Findlay to Youngstown and points south. Precipitation will likely
remain as snow north of this line with accumulation amounts of 1-2
inches along the lakeshore and 2-4 inches across Northwest
Pennsylvania. The low exits to the east on Sunday which will usher
in northwesterly flow and cold air advection into the region.
Maintained lake enhanced PoPs across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania despite the lake being ice covered. High pressure
approaches from the west later on Sunday which will clear out any
lingering snow showers.
High temperatures remain in the 30s Saturday and Sunday with
overnight lows in the 20s Saturday night dropping into the teens
Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly active weather pattern continues through the long term period
as multiple upper level shortwaves enter the Ohio Valley from the
south and west. High temperatures through the long term look to
remain in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Cigs will gradually improve to VFR the next few hours as drier
air works into the region behind a cold front. A few flurries or
snow showers are possible at KCLE and KERI over the next 3
hours or so as a cold front drops across the region, but not
confident enough to put in the TAFs. This will give way to VFR
tonight and Friday, except a band of lake-effect snow showers
could impact KERI at times in the 08-11Z timeframe, so added
VCSH there with cigs falling back to MVFR. It will take until
late Friday afternoon for more sustained VFR to develop at KERI.
WSW winds will gust to 20-25 knots at times tonight, with gusts
of 30-35 knots at KERI. W to WSW winds will then gradually
decrease to 5-10 knots on Friday.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in a wintry mix of freezing rain,
sleet, and snow on Saturday through early Sunday. Non-VFR may
return in snow across the southern half of the area on Tuesday
into Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure continues to glide east across the region while
dragging a cold front eastward across the lake. Southwest winds
increase to 25-30 knots across the entire lake, with gales of 35
knots or higher across the eastern basin overnight tonight. A Gale
Warning is in effect through 4 AM Friday for the waters offshore
Pennsylvania and New York.
A ridge of high pressure builds east over the lake behind the cold
front on Friday which will diminish winds below 20 knots early
Friday morning. As the center of the high builds east over the
region, wind speeds diminish and become light and variable for the
first half of the day on Saturday. Easterly winds increase to 10-15
knots Saturday afternoon as low pressure approaches the Ohio Valley
from the south. Winds back and become northwesterly as the low exits
to the east on Sunday, remaining between 10-15 knots.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
due to extensive ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ149-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...13
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 6, 7:31 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
