IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 5:43 AM EST483
FXUS63 KIWX 011043
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
543 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain is possible mainly north of Highway 24 late tonight
into Sunday morning. Precipitation may begin as some brief
snow but little to no accumulation is expected.
- It will be dry late Sunday through late Tuesday with the next
chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday.
- Temperatures through the next seven days will remain generally
at or above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
CAA in the wake of departing low will result in 850mb temps dropping
to around -7C this morning. Core of the thermal trough bypasses us
to the NE though and flow already starts to whip around by late
afternoon. Forecast soundings also suggest any morning stratus will
largely dissipate by the afternoon with just some high clouds by
then. Therefore leaned on the higher side of guidance and in line
with previous forecast for highs in the upper 30s SW to near 30F NE
today. WAA quickly ramps up tonight with increasing surface winds
and cloud cover. Temps may drop into the 20s during the evening but
will then slowly rise through the late overnight into Sun morning.
The shortwave responsible for this strong WAA will cross the central
Great Lakes on Sun. How far south the associated precip shield
develops remains a point of contention in the guidance. General
preference for more northern solutions given track of midlevel
trough/CVA. There is some broad/gentle 285-295K isentropic upglide
over Indiana that could generate a few stray sprinkles early Sun AM
but far better ascent and moisture remains over MI and only clips
our northern counties. Precip could begin as some very brief snow
early Sun AM but will quickly transition to just rain and little/no
accumulation or impacts are anticipated. Highs on Sun surge near 50F
under continued WAA.
Early portions of next week remain relatively quiet with just a few
weak shortwaves passing to our north in strong zonal flow. Held dry
late Sun through late Tue though it's not impossible our far
northern zones could get clipped with some light precip during this
time. Far better precip chances arrive Wed/Thu but there is still a
very high degree of uncertainty in how this period plays out. In
most scenarios though thermal profiles are warm enough for primarily
rain and continued that trend in the latest forecast. However did
keep a slight chance freezing rain mention for late Tue night if
precip arrives that early (which is doubtful). Also maintained some
dubious thunder chances in our CWA Wed night. Relatively low
confidence in temps through the period with some wild swings in NBM
guidance but generally holding at or above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
Small areas of MVFR were still spreading into northern Indiana
near and just under a weak inversion. Given the latest
satellite images and some high res guidance, have kept ceilings
mainly VFR except for a short TEMPO group at FWA early in the
TAF period. A light rain and snow mix is possible near the end
of the TAF period just before 12Z at SBN as the next system
arrives.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 5:43 AM EST---------------
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