CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 4:26 AM EST802
FXUS61 KCLE 030926
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
426 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northeast of the area tonight, followed
by a cold front late in the day Monday. High pressure briefly
builds in for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Low pressure moves
through the region Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still dealing with patches of dense fog across the area this
morning as low-level moisture remains trapped underneath a
strong temperature inversion between 950 and 900 mb. A surface
warm front will eventually lift northwards through the area
later this morning which will allow us to begin tapping into
some of that warmer air aloft, aided by gusty southwest winds
peaking into the 25 to 30 mph range by this afternoon.
Temperatures should reach into the low to mid-50s for most areas
with this brief period of strong warm air advection.
Unfortunately, the warm weather will not last long as a surface
cold front towards the north will sweep southeast through the
area later this evening and overnight. Models appear
sufficiently moist in the low and mid-levels for a brief period
of rain showers along and just behind the surface cold front.
Precipitation should initially remain all rain as warm air
advection persists in the mid-levels. Colder air aloft will
arrive overnight, and with the loss of mid-level moisture behind
the front, can't entirely rule out a brief period of light
freezing drizzle across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. However, confidence remains too low for any
mention at this time.
For the most part, Tuesday should be dry as surface high
pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes. However,
upstream lake moisture coupled with the cold air mass could
result in continued cloudiness, particularly for Tuesday
afternoon as temperatures remain chilly in the upper 20s to
lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A weak upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across
the central CONUS. In response, expansive isentropic lift leads to
the development of precipitation across much of the middle
Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, before it further
develops and moves northeastward across the forecast area Wednesday
night into Thursday.
The system is a little tricky to forecast for, especially for
precipitation type, though confidence in the general idea has been
increasing over the last few forecast cycles. Ambient air and
surface temperatures should be at or below freezing Tuesday night
through the day Wednesday. Light snow may initially be possible
during the day Wednesday into the afternoon/early evening hours,
though some models have been hinting at 700mb frontogenesis
producing a narrow band of snow initially, which is most
pronounced by the 06Z NAM (which is produces a band of 1-3" of
snow). The NAM is the outlier in the case though. Should see snow
transition to a wintry mix, including sleet and freezing rain, as
confidence is high in temperatures warming aloft Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. Should see a transition to all rain as the
warm front lifts northeast across the area, Wednesday night through
Thursday morning, with all rain expected by daybreak Thursday.
The most impactful part of this system is expected to be from ice.
There is very high confidence in at least 0.01" of ice accumulations
areawide with at least a winter weather advisory very likely at this
point. Greater accumulations are less certain with about 30-50% of
>0.1" and about 10-20% of >0.25" (which is ice storm warning
criteria). Best chance for greater ice accumulations and expected
impacts will be near the Toledo area, where easterly flow off of
Lake Erie may keep ambient temperatures lower for a bit longer.
Current deterministic forecast has about 0.05-0.1" areawide with
around 0.2" in and around Toledo.
There is some uncertainties, largely revolving around the evolution
of the surface low and how strong it gets as it gets absorbed into a
stronger low to the northwest. Some models have a weaker low,
resulting in a slower warm front and a more diffuse temperature
gradient (which is what the GFS is leaning towards). This would
result in ice impacts lingering more into the Thursday morning
commute and lower warm sector temperatures Thursday afternoon (maybe
not even in the 40s). Overall QPF would be lower with this solution
as well. Other models (such as the ECMWF) have a stronger low, which
would result in a faster warm front and the warmest part of the warm
sector reaching out forecast area (with temperatures potentially
briefly reaching 60 Thursday afternoon!). This would lessen the
freezing rain impacts for the Thursday morning commute (because of
the quicker transition to rain) with higher overall QPF, and maybe
even some potential for convective precipitation within the warm
sector.
Should see rain quickly end Thursday afternoon/evening, with a cold
front crossing the region. Should see temperatures drop down into
the 20s Thursday night as high pressure builds in.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A system similar to the Wed-Thu system is expected to traverse the
area Saturday into Saturday night, with similar potential for a
wintry mix. Current probabilities call for about 50% chance of 0.01"
of ice areawide. May see some light snow linger on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Mixed-bag of MVFR, IFR, and pockets of LIFR across the TAF sites
early this morning, associated with both lower ceilings and
vsbys from mist and/or fog. Conditions will gradually improve to
VFR from south to north across the region by mid to late
morning as stronger southwest winds begin to arrive. Non-VFR
conditions will return later this evening and overnight from the
north and northwest as a cold front sweeps southeast through the
area. Ceilings and vsbys are expected to fall back to IFR with
perhaps brief pockets of LIFR coinciding with the front.
Winds are generally light and favoring a southerly direction
early this morning, less than 5 knots. Southwest winds will
increase by late morning and early afternoon, 10 to 15 knots
with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Winds will then abruptly
shift towards the northwest and north behind a cold front later
this evening and overnight, around 10 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected across the region late Monday night
into Tuesday morning in low ceilings. Lingering non-VFR
possible in low ceilings from lake clouds on Tuesday. Non-VFR
expected to return late Wednesday into Thursday in widespread
rain and snow. A brief period of freezing rain is possible
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
due to extensive ice cover.
Relatively low impact winds expected over the next couple days as
wind speeds remain at or below 15 knots. Next best chance will be
when a low pressures system moves across the area Wednesday night
into Thursday. As the cold front moves across Lake Erie, should see
west winds of around 20 to 25 knots develop Thursday and Thursday
night.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142>145-
162>165.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 4:26 AM EST---------------
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