LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 11:38 PM CST ...New AVIATION...822
FXUS64 KLIX 270538
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1138 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
Currently not anticipating an update to the public forecast. Will
monitor marine areas for potential fog development later, but not
seeing any signs of significant development at this time. The CWF
evening update won't be carrying any significant changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through 12Z Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
There is a cutoff low over central coastal California directing
upper level southern flow across the area in a zonal flow pattern.
At the surface we are in a slight low pressure trough between
high pressure to our west over the southern plains and to the east
over northern Florida. This low pressure is combining with an
upper shortwave and acting as a funnel bringing moist gulf air
into the area and building a case for rain moving across the area
late tonight through tomorrow morning. The bulk of the rain will
be north of the I-10/12 line with most likely totals there just
shy of an inch and south of that line at a quarter inch or less.
With this setup of flow regimes high temps tomorrow should be in
the low 60s, normal for this time of year. As the shortwave moves
on past us winds will turn around coming out of the north and
bring slightly cooler temperatures into the 40s which is normal
for this time of year. About the only impact to be concerned about
is the possibility of some foggy conditions on Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(12Z Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
Models seem to agree that we will remain in largely zonal flow with
an upstream ridge axis across the southern plains on Tuesday and
Wednesday. That upstream ridge axis will keep a surface high draped
over the area Tuesday and Wednesday with the expected NVA across the
area. All of that indicated large scale sinking and a slight
increase in temperatures from Tuesday and Wednesday as the
ridge axis moves closer to the area while keeping us dry.
Beyond Wednesday, the forecast starts to become more uncertain,
especially with what happens with the trough over the SW CONUS.
Looking at ensemble clustering, there is a lot of variability in the
timing of the shortwave as well as the overall orientation of the
shortwave. Much of the differences actually seems to be with the
preceding ridging mentioned in the prior paragraph out ahead of the
shortwave with its strength. The stronger the ridge is, the slower
the shortwave will be, but the weaker the ridge, the faster the
shortwave. Although, the forecast is pretty uncertain, the trend
seems to be a stronger ridge and a slower trough with the newest
guidance. This goes without saying, but timing and placement is
everything in these dynamic setups. Diurnal times matter for
instability and placement of the associated low-level jet (LLJ) is
key to for shear purposes. With the uncertainty, can't get into
specifics at this time, but expect showers and thunderstorms from
Thursday evening through Friday night. Hopefully guidance will start
to come to a consensus in the coming days so we can get into the
timing and severity details.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
There's been a cloud deck with bases near FL030 that has been in
and out of several terminals this evening, and expect that trend
to continue for the next few hours before ceilings gradually lower
into the MVFR range and become more widespread. To this point of
the evening, -RA has been mostly limited to southwest
Mississippi...and briefly at KMCB. The most likely terminals to be
impacted aside from KMCB would be KBTR and KHDC. Can't entirely
rule out TSRA, as there have been a few lightning strikes over
southwest Louisiana near KLCH, but the threat is way too low to
carry as a prevailing condition over the next 6 hours.
IFR ceilings will be possible from around sunrise Monday until
midday before returning to MVFR. There will be some potential for
IFR or lower conditions in the 06z-12z Tuesday time frame.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
Winds out of the south at 5-10 kt will become northerly with the
passage later monday of a weak front. Later in the week we see
further change to winds form the east and building gradually to 15
kt. It is possible that some low-grade headlines will be
necessary by the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 51 60 40 64 / 90 60 0 0
BTR 55 67 45 68 / 80 50 0 0
ASD 54 68 45 65 / 50 60 0 0
MSY 54 66 48 63 / 40 50 0 0
GPT 52 65 45 63 / 50 60 0 0
PQL 52 68 43 67 / 50 60 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...DS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 11:38 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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