ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 10:11 PM EST620
FXUS61 KILN 020311
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1011 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off to the east this evening allowing a
warm front will lift across the area late tonight into Sunday
morning. Southerly flow will bring very warm temperatures until
a cold front moves through late Monday into Monday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface high continues to drift off to the northeast. High level
clouds overspread the region tonight. Eventually, low level
moisture increases as southerly flow develops. Not anticipating
any precip before daybreak, but some CAMs still show weak echoes
trying to develop early Sunday morning near the Tristate,
eventually shifting northward through the day.
Overnight lows will dip into the lower to middle 20s near
central OH, increasing to around the freezing mark near the
Tristate.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A short wave will track across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday.
As it does, the low level jet will continue to track off to the
east. Low level moisture will be abundant and there could be
enough forcing for a little bit of very light precipitation
along the northern and eastern counties during the morning into
the early afternoon. Thermal profiles are such that there could
be a bit of light freezing rain or snow. With this being a low
probability event and amounts being very light, the chance of
any hazardous conditions developing is quite low (less than 10
percent), but will be something to monitor.
Clouds are forecast to start to erode during the afternoon from
the south and west, so temperatures will be able to warm into
the 50s generally along and south of I-70. Clouds may be more
stubborn north of there keeping highs in the mid 40s. Light
southerly flow will persist into Sunday night with lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak cold front will sag southeast across the area Monday
afternoon through Monday night. It will be tough to rule out a few
spotty showers along the front Monday night but with moisture
remaining fairly limited, will maintain a dry forecast at this point.
Breezy southerly flow ahead of the front will lead to well above
normal temperatures during the day on Monday with afternoon highs
ranging from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south. A somewhat
cooler airmass will move in behind the front for Tuesday with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 30s north to the lower 50s
south.
Zonal flow will then be in place across the CONUS through the
remainder of the upcoming week. This will lead to a more progressive
pattern through the end of the long term period. Mid level energy
and an associated surface low will ride east along a boundary
stalled out across the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. This
will lead to widespread rain with even a few thunderstorms possible
across our south. Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 40s and
50s both Wednesday and Thursday.
Another mid level short wave and surface low pressure system will
approach from the west late in the period. This will bring an
increasing chance for showers through the day on Saturday. Highs
Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High level clouds continue to traverse the region this evening. Low
level saturation will occur tonight, eventually leading to lower
CIGs developing. MVFR CIGs are expected to arrive near or just
before 12z Sunday. Some hi-res models do hint at the potential
for light pcpn during the morning and early afternoon. However,
given low confidence in coverage, have not included a mention in
the tafs yet.
MVFR CIGs gradually improve Sunday afternoon, with most
terminals expected to return to VFR by the evening.
Winds will will begin to shift from the ENE to the SE tonight.
By mid to late morning Sunday, winds will now be from the SSW,
increasing to around 10-14 kts sustained.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Monday night into Tuesday and
then again Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 10:11 PM EST---------------
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