PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 3:13 PM CST178
FXUS63 KPAH 012113
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
313 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through
next week.
- Rain returns to the forecast midweek through the weekend with
thunderstorms possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
Clouds have thinned out over much of the Quad State, lingering
over the southernmost portions along with covering much of
Arkansas and Tennessee. Areas that have cleared out have had
temperature rises to the upper 40s to near 50 while some cloudy
areas may land a bit below the high forecast. Winds shift to
southerly this evening, allowing for the low-level clouds to the
south to lift through the forecast area tonight into tomorrow.
The I-64 and northward drizzle potential tonight remains limited
enough in the models to stay left out, but is sufficiently
close by to the north that an adjustment could be needed. Breezy
SSW winds tomorrow will lift highs to the 60s as long as clouds
move sufficiently northward during the day.
Aloft, zonal flow strengthens this weekend and persists through
next week. A northern jet will take systems near the Canadian
border, while a southern track brings systems through the
middle or southern portions of the U.S. While upper levels
remain fairly steady, lower levels are variable and uncertainty
ramps up sooner than usual in the model output.
The simpler portion of the forecast is through Tuesday with dry
weather. Temperatures surge to the upper 60s to even some values
just above 70 on Monday. A dry cold frontal passage is projected
to move through Monday night with the surface low well into
Northern Ontario. Uncertainty increases as the west-east front
stalls and meanders around the region through much of the rest
of the week. South of the front, Gulf moisture and well above
normal temperatures will be present while north of the front
temperatures will still be slightly above normal as Arctic air
remains well to the north.
While model uncertainty exists on timing of systems, a midweek
period of higher PoPs is narrowing slightly Tuesday night
through Thursday as a disturbance moves across the Central
Plains, picking up moisture from the Gulf. Elevated convection
has the potential to produce storms, and severe weather may
eventually be a consideration with this midweek system.
Depending on track, QPF may well exceed the half inch to an inch
that is currently in the forecast for the midweek storm.
Heading into next weekend, models suggest an upper-low across
the Northern Plains and a surface low in the Central or Southern
Plains may form and interact, potentially bringing an
additional round of showers and storms, though ensemble spread
is high.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
MVFR cigs are beginning to thin out early this afternoon, with
the most persistent coverage expected in the south. Winds shift
towards southerly by evening around 5-9 kts. Cloud coverage
increases overnight, spreading northward. Winds become breezy
tomorrow out of the south, with cloud cover decreasing late in
the TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 3:13 PM CST---------------
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