LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 2:27 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...229
FXUS64 KLIX 252027
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
227 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 105 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
High pressure will shift farther east of the local area tonight
with onshore flow resulting in a continued warming trend. For the
first time since last Monday, we have no freezing temperatures in
the forecast!
A weak cold front will move through the local area Sunday night
into Monday in response to a fast-moving shortwave embedded
withing the overall troughiness dominating the eastern CONUS.
While moisture will be fairly limited, the forcing from the front
should result in scattered to numerous showers Sunday night.
Instability will be rather limited, but can't rule out a few
thunderstorms here and there, so will continue to carry a slight
chance of thunder as the front moves through.
Overall rainfall totals should generally be one half inch or
less. However, anywhere thunderstorms do occur could see locally
higher totals with ensemble guidance indicating about a 10% chance
of reaching 1" of rain for all points roughly north of a line from
Morgan City to Covington to Saucier. Additionally, even rainfall
rates of around 0.5" per hour could result in enhanced runoff
owing to the hard ground after a week of morning temperatures
below freezing. Given the hard ground, especially across northern
portions of the forecast area, WPC continues to highlight areas
generally northwest of a line from Baton Rouge to McComb with a
marginal risk of flash flooding. Most likely impacts would be
localized street flooding in areas where runoff from even modest
rainfall rates may overwhelm local drainage capacity.
Rain quickly moves out of the area by Monday afternoon as high
pressure builds into the area behind the weak cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday night)
Issued at 105 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
Tuesday will be fairly quiet as Monday's front presses into the
Gulf and transient high pressure builds across the local area. The
surface high quickly shifts east of the local area by Tuesday
night, with return flow setting in. Onshore winds will result in
an increase in moisture, and it still looks like dense fog may be
a concern Tuesday night as warmer and more humid air advects
northward over cooler nearshore waters.
A weak front will slide through the local area late Wednesday as
a fast-moving upper level disturbance swings through the middle
Mississippi Valley around larger-scale troughing over the eastern
CONUS. This will result in isolated to scattered showers with the
best chances across northern portions of the local forecast area.
While a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out, instability looks
meager and thus will only carry a slight chance of thunder across
far northern areas where lift will be a little stronger due to
proximity to the main disturbance.
By Thursday and Friday a cutoff low located over the southwestern
CONUS will finally begin to lift northeastward. As the upper low
deepens and moves northeastward, a surface low is forecast to
develop over northern Mexico by Thursday, forcing a warm front
into the local area Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the low,
broad ascent across the old frontal boundary will result in
isolated to scattered showers, but once again instability as a
whole remains meager at best and thunderstorms currently look
unlikely.
The better chance of thunderstorms looks to be just beyond the
current forecast period going into Saturday as the trough axis
associated with the upper low takes on a negative tilt and the
surface low and associated fronts move into the local area. Will
need to keep an eye on trends and whether there will be enough
instability to support more scattered or widespread thunderstorms
as the next cold front sweeps through the local area Friday night
into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period under the influence
of high pressure. As the high slowly slides eastward, moisture
will gradually increase, with mid-level clouds moving into the
area overnight and Sunday. An approaching upper level disturbance
will bring a light to moderate showers and a few thunderstorms to
the area mostly beyond the current forecast period. However, a
prob30 group was included for lower cigs associated with showers
at MCB toward the end of the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
Expect generally benign conditions to persist through the first
part of the week with light onshore flow. The onshore winds will
gradually bring moisture into the area, and there is potential for
dense fog development by Tuesday night as warmer and more humid
air advects northward across cooler nearshore waters. A weak front
will pass into the coastal waters Wednesday night into Thursday
with winds shifting to the northeast/east. The tighter pressure
gradient will also result in stronger winds and exercise caution
headlines appear likely by late Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 40 65 49 60 / 0 40 70 50
BTR 45 72 53 66 / 0 20 50 50
ASD 42 68 52 66 / 0 10 30 40
MSY 46 68 53 66 / 0 0 20 40
GPT 41 65 51 64 / 0 0 20 40
PQL 41 68 51 69 / 0 0 20 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 2:27 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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