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360 FXUS64 KMOB 272151AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL351 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Tuesday night)Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025Dry and mild conditions will persist as northwest flow aloft prevails between an upper longwave trough over the northeast/mid-Atlantic states and an upper ridge building over the southern/central Plains. A weak cold front currently passing through the forecast area will move entirely offshore by early evening, with some light post-frontal fog forming by late tonight, followed by decreasing clouds on Tuesday.Temperatures should remain near to slightly above normal through the period, with lows tonight ranging from the mid 30 to lower 40s over interior communities to the mid 40s at the beaches. Highs on Tuesday will range from 60 to 65 degrees. Lows Tuesday night trend upward a bit into the lower to mid 40s most areas, with upper 40s at the beaches. /22&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025A closed upper low over the Southwestern Conus will push east over Plains to over the eastern Conus into the weekend, opening after it crosses the Mississippi River Friday night. The latest guidance is advertising an associated weak cold front crossing the forecast area beginning before sunrise Friday and moving east of the forecast area shortly after noontime. This is significantly faster than yesterday guidance. The majority of the rain should be well east of the forecast area by midnight Friday night, according to the models. Ensembles are still holding onto a bit slower solution, with frontal passage and rain ending about 6-12hrs slower. The ensembles are also showing a slowing trend, so have went that way with the forecast instead of jumping on the model physicals solution.Guidance is still advertising strong upper dynamics, with 60kt 850mb and 120kt upper level jets passing, along with 60-70kt 0-6km Bulk Wind Shear. Instability over land areas remains the limiting factor, even with slowing the frontal passage into the morning hours. Any strong to severe storms with this package area long or south of the coast, with a few strong to marginally severe possible.High temperatures remain well above seasonal norms, topping out generally in the around 70 to low 70s range most days. A bit of a post frontal cool down does bring high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s Saturday. Low temperatures are more variable. Upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday night rise into the mid to upper 50s Thursday night. A post frontal cool down brings low temperatures in the low to mid 40s Saturday night. With onshore flow over the Gulf returning Wednesday and increasing into the weekend, a Low risk of rip currents mid week becomes High by Friday, and lasting into the weekend./16&&.MARINE...Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025Light to occasional moderate offshore flow returns this evening behind a cold front. Winds become light and variable Tuesday afternoon through midweek, followed by an increasing east to southeast flow on Thursday. Moderate to occasional strong onshore flow sets up on Friday ahead of a strong front, shifting to an offshore flow as we head into the weekend, and a Small Craft Advisory may be required ahead of an behind the front. /22&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 42 65 47 70 52 71 58 72 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 20 70 Pensacola 45 62 49 68 54 68 62 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 60 Destin 47 62 52 68 55 68 61 72 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 60 Evergreen 38 63 42 70 47 73 55 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 20 70 Waynesboro 37 62 43 69 49 73 56 70 / 0 0 0 10 10 10 40 70 Camden 34 60 40 67 47 71 54 70 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 30 70 Crestview 42 65 44 72 48 72 56 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 60 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
