PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 9:23 AM EST499
FXUS61 KPBZ 011423
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
923 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns today with cooler temperatures, but above
average temperatures with intermittent rain chances are expected
into next week. Another widespread precipitation system is
possible by mid-to-late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather returns today with cooler temperatures.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Update...
Latest visible satellite imagery shows clearing skies this
morning as dry air makes its way into the region in the wake of
last night's cold front. Despite the ample sunshine, high
temperatures are still forecast to only reach the low to mid 30s
in most places (20s near and north of I-80) due to cold air
advection under breezy north winds. More information can be
found in the previous discussion below.
Previous discussion...
Patchy light snow showers and/or drizzle will linger in the
ridges early this morning, but dry weather has returned
elsewhere as surface high pressure begins to build across the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and colder/dry air filters into the
region. Regional satellite already shows cloud cover eroding
from the north, with portions of eastern OH and northwest PA
under clearing sky. This has also allow temperatures to rapidly
drop into the 20s behind the retreating cloud shield.
Plentiful sunshine for most will still struggle to overcome cold
advection, with below-average afternoon temperatures expected to
be in the 20s to lower 30s. High pressure will shift east
tonight into Sunday, with warm and moist advection ramping up
again by this evening ahead of our next shortwave. Clouds will
increase as a result, but overnight temperatures will still fall
into the lower 20s to upper teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasing warmth again Sunday
- Rain and rain/snow mix mainly north of Pittsburgh Sunday
afternoon
--------------------------------------------------------------------
A shortwave clipper system will graze the area on Sunday as
southwesterly surface flow increases warm advection. Light
precipitation will briefly return to the area by Sunday
afternoon, primarily north of Pittsburgh. Given warming
temperatures, precipitation will be rain for most, though snow
is possible in northwest PA before transitioning to rain by late
Sunday afternoon. Precipitation will quickly exit Sunday
evening.
Continued warm advection in southwesterly flow will promote warm
overnight temperatures into Monday, with much of the area in the
30s to lower 40s. A cold front will then drop across the area
on Monday, bringing a low probability rain chance.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather on Tuesday
- Rain and snow chances return Wednesday and Thursday with low
pressure
- Temperature remains above-average
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble clusters indicate generally zonal flow for the eastern
CONUS into midweek as a closed low sits over the PacNW. There
appears to be relatively high confidence in ridging developing
downstream of the closed low, with uncertainty for the ern CONUS
related mainly to the height field downwind of the ridge axis
interacting with the nrn jet stream across the nern CONUS.
Eventually, the ridge axis is likely to begin an ewd jaunt as
the PacNW closed low opens and phases into the broader flow.
Timing uncertainties dominate the cluster analysis in this
period, as a strong shortwave trough moves into south-central
Canada and attempts to sync with the opening nwrn-CONUS low.
This system is likely to affect the Upper Ohio Valley in the
Wed-Thu timeframe given the timing uncertainties mentioned
above. At this time, it appears thermal profiles will support
all rain, though a period of freezing rain is possible at onset
on Wednesday, and a changeover to light snow is possible on the
backside early Friday as cooler air moves in.
Temperatures will remain above-average with high confidence
through Thursday, with near seasonal temperatures returning by
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier than expected air following the cold front has allowed
clouds to erode faster than expected as terminals northwest of
a ZZV-PIT-DUJ line have already returned to VFR. Expect this
clearing to continue from north to south, with MGW returning to
VFR around Noon or slightly earlier according to latest hi-res
guidance. Scattered stratocu may redevelop later this morning
and afternoon with the onset of heating/mixing, but widespread
restrictions are not anticipated.
North to northwest winds around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots
continue this morning before subsiding this afternoon as the
local pressure gradient relaxes. Light winds then shift to
southeasterly overnight and begin to increase again towards
sunrise Sunday morning.
Outlook...
Weak shortwave movement in zonal flow to the north may lead to
a period of MVFR cigs (40-60% probability of occurrence) and
light rain/drizzle Sunday favoring northwest PA.
Periods of gusty winds may also develop as low pressure crosses
north of the region through early next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Cermak/Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/Milcarek
AVIATION...Cermak/Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 9:23 AM EST---------------
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