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273 FXUS64 KLIX 242206AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA406 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)Issued at 404 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025Gorgeous day across the region. Temperatures warmed across the region with just about everyone in the 50s and some getting into the upper 50s. Most if not all snow is gone unless it has remainedin the shade. Cold tonight and with the sfc high sitting directly over the area right now and slowly working ene should keep winds calm to light and vrb most of the night. Combine that with clear skies and very dry conditions and we have the conditions for an optimal radiational cooling night. Mid lvl clouds kept things much warmer last night but that won't be the case tonight. Given the position of the sfc high it will wedge to the sw and that is usually a good set up for over achieving in the drainage areas. With that we will see one last night of a moderate to light freeze across the area. No headlines issued for tonight as this is borderline and we are coming out of a historic cold and snow event. As mentioned yesterday the trough quickly swings through tonight and we immediately go to zonal flow and no northwest flow. This will allow us to start to recover tomorrow with moisture recovery and PWs recover to around an inch overnight Saturday and just off to our west will be over 1.5". This is setting conditions up for rain to return late Sunday and into Monday. Sunday and Monday we remain in zonal flow with multiple impulses expected to move through southern Plains and across the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley over the 24 to 36 hours. Rain will start to develop back to west of the area during the day Sunday as an inverted trough sets up across the TX coast and nne through the ARKLAMISS. The combination of increasing moisture, LL convergence, and favorable jet setup will allow showers and a few thunderstorms to become more widespread off to our west and northwest before sliding into the CWA Sunday evening. There could be brief moments of locally heavy rain as the we move under a coupled jet that will remain in place through the night and into Monday. Overall not anticipating a lot of issues but with the increasing moisture and very favorable jet setup combined with what will likely be dormant and hard ground which will lead to runoff quickly. This may cause some minor issues and a Marginal Risk has been placed over the northwestern sections of the area. Rain will continue into the day Monday and likely linger through much of the day before pushing off to the east and northeast. /CAB/&&.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday night)Issued at 404 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025Heading into the extended the pattern remains very progressive with zonal flow still in place and rain possible each day. Models diverge on how they will handle the system out west and how much activity it brings into the area late next week. Could be a lot ofrain, could be some possibility of severe weather. Otherwise we continue to moderate and will see the warming continue and moisture increase. /CAB/&&.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS)Issued at 404 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025Skies clearing and VFR conditions in place already and will remainso through the forecast. /CAB/&&.MARINE...Issued at 404 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025High pressure centered directly over the waters will slowly workeast-northeast tonight and tomorrow. Light winds will develop by tonight and remain in place through the weekend in response to this high. Early next week, the high will become centered to the east of the waters, and a light southerly wind will develop. These light southerly winds will continue into the middle of next week. /CAB/&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 23 56 39 61 / 0 0 0 40 BTR 26 60 44 67 / 0 0 0 30 ASD 22 58 42 66 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 30 57 46 66 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 26 55 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 22 58 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...CABLONG TERM....CABAVIATION...CABMARINE...CAB
