IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 29, 12:28 PM EST485
FXUS63 KIND 291728
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1228 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind gusts 20-30mph through this afternoon
- Above average highs mostly in the 40s to low 50s through the
weekend
- Rain expected Thursday evening into Friday, rain amounts 1-1.5
inches likely
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
No significant changes required to the going forecast this morning.
Clear skies expected today aside from a small amount of mid and high
cloud associated with passage of a weak, dry surface trough.
Otherwise, surface high pressure will build into the region this
afternoon into tonight, with an increase in surface pressure
gradient this afternoon producing some slight breeziness. These
gusts will dissipate in typical diurnal fashion this evening.
Going highs in the mid 40s to around 50 look good and were left
intact.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
A stretch of mild weather continues as the overall pattern undergoes
a significant shift from the past few weeks. Surface analysis over
the Eastern CONUS features high pressure along the Gulf coast with a
progressive northern stream jet across the Great Lakes with multiple
surface lows tracking north of the region. Indiana will be placed
right in the middle of these two regimes over the next few days
resulting in mainly dry, yet breezy and mild conditions.
For today, an area of low pressure treks through eastern Ontario
while pushing a weak, moisture starved cold front southward into
Indiana later this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient between
the high to the south and lower pressure to the north will keep
winds elevated through the day. Currently a 50 kt low level jet
exists overhead and will be slowly weakening through the
afternoon. The nocturnal inversion in place is preventing these
strong winds from mixing down to the surface during the early
morning hours. Mainly just gradient winds 10-15 mph with gusts to
20 mph expected through the morning. Surface heating later today
will lead to increased mixing and steepening low level lapse rates
which could help bring higher gusts to the surface. During that
same time, the LLJ weakens, so expect max wind gusts 20-25 mph
through the mid afternoon hours before winds significantly
diminish tonight.
Despite a frontal boundary approaching from the north, breezy
conditions, a well mixed boundary layer, and ample sunshine will
help surface temperatures rise into the mid to upper 40s once
again. Center of the surface high slides by to the south tonight,
briefly causing the pressure gradient to collapse and winds to go
calm in portions of Central Indiana. Good conditions for
radiational cooling will likely lead to tonight being a few
degrees cooler than the past few nights, in the mid to upper 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
Thursday Through Friday.
Southerly surface flow is expected to return Thursday morning ahead
of the arrival of a rain producing system that is expected to impact
central Indiana Thursday night into Friday. Cloud cover is expected
to gradually increase through the day which will limit the solar
heating, but as the southerly flow ramps up, advection of warmer air
should still allow for another day with highs in the upper 40s to
low 50s.
The pattern then will begin to shift late Thursday into Friday as
the aforementioned strong upper level low exits the Four Corners
region and begins to track to the northeast. Models continue to have
a solid handle on the overall synoptic pattern with details in the
exact timing/strength of the low remaining uncertain. Confidence is
high in a widespread moderate to locally heavy rain event beginning
late Thursday through Friday with temperatures warm enough to keep
rain as the only precipitation type.
Total rainfall amounts of 1-1.5 inches look reasonable with the
strong forcing collocated with widespread moisture advection. There
remains some uncertainty as to the position of the dry slot which
would bring isolated lower amounts along with a frontogenetically
driven band along the TROWAL axis that currently looks to straddle
the northwestern portions of the area.
These rain amounts will lead to additional rises on area rivers and
streams, especially across southern Indiana where the highest total
rainfall is expected. River ensembles show at least a low threat for
minor flooding along the lower White River with action stage likely
along the White River south of Bloomington along with much of the
East Fork White River.
Saturday Through Tuesday.
Cooler but still above normal temperatures are then expected for the
weekend with a low end threat for a few snow showers on the backend
of the Friday system. Dry weather is likely for much if not all of
the weekend with only very low rain chances Sunday as another weak
system passes through the Great Lakes. Another weak cold front looks
likely towards the start of next week, but little to no forcing is
expected along the front which should keep conditions dry. Surface
flow then becomes northerly by Tuesday which will bring the coldest
temperatures of the long term period with morning lows in the 20s
and highs in the 30s.
Looking beyond further into the work week the pattern looks to
remain wetter than normal with additional precipitation likely.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
Impacts:
- Sustained winds 11-16KT gusting to 17-24KT from 280-300 degrees
through late afternoon
Discussion:
High pressure building into the region from the southwest through
the day into tonight will lead to clear or mostly clear skies and
unrestricted visibility.
Winds this afternoon will generally be from 280-300 degrees, with
sustained winds in the range of 11-16KT. While gusts may not be
constant, frequent gusts of 17-24KT depending upon the site can be
expected through late afternoon, dissipating by around 23Z.
Winds overnight will begin to back to the west and then south by
Thursday morning. Sustained winds overnight will go light to
possibly calm at times, with some variability. Sustained winds will
strengthen back toward 8KT or so by mid morning.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Nield
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 29, 12:28 PM EST---------------
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