JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 28, 2:44 PM EST858
FXUS63 KJKL 281944
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
244 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will gradually trend well above normal through the
end of the work week.
- A system will approach the area towards the end of the work
week, bringing a soaking rain.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 134 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
Temperatures have warmed a bit more rapidly than the prior
forecast, warranting a small increase in today's high
temperatures -- now expect maximum values to range from ~44F in
northern Fleming County to ~54F in the Middlesboro Basin.
However, temperatures will be cooler over the higher elevations
above 2,500 feet, generally peaking in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
UPDATE Issued at 1045 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
Brought the hourly temperature forecast in line with the
observations. Near-term forecast is otherwise on track.
UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
satellite trends. This led to some minor updates for the cloud
cover associated with the passing disturbance. Other changes were
adjustments to hourly temperatures where the mid and thicker high
clouds had arrived. Overall, the band of clouds should move east
and southeast with mostly sunny skies in all areas by mid morning
and continuing in the afternoon. Temperatures should average near
to slightly above normal for highs today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 510 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
Early this morning, an upper level low was centered over Quebec
with an associated trough, the axis of which extended south
across the eastern Great Lakes and mid Atlantic states and into
the Southeast. A shortwave trough extended from the eastern Great
Lakes to the mid and Lower OH valley with another shortwave
trough working southeast across Manitoba and Saskatchewan in
northwest flow between the troughing and upper level ridging
extending from the eastern Pacific into the Northeast Conus to
northern Rockies. A shortwave ridge axis extended north from
Mexico into the Southern Plains with a closed low in between
centered over the southwest Conus. At the surface, a cold front
extended from an area of low pressure in the Maritimes vicinity
and into the Northeast Conus to the eastern/southern Great Lakes
to a wave of low pressure over the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border
vicinity. Meanwhile, a ridge of sfc high pressure extended from
the Southern Plains into the Southeast with ridging extending
into the Commonwealth. Locally, more southern locations were
either clear or had just some high clouds while some mid and even
patchy low clouds associated with a passing shortwave extended
from WV into northeastern and northern Ky to IN. There were some
radar returns from this, but sfc dewpoint depressions are quite
large at present and this is probably largely virga with possibly
a few stray flurries reaching the surface. Temperatures ranged
from the upper teens to lower 20s in the more southern sheltered
valleys that were decoupled to the low to mid 30s on ridges and in
more open terrain areas and areas that are no longer decoupled.
Today and tonight, the shortwave trough will cross the region
through midday with a gradual increase in heights across the
Commonwealth as shortwave upper ridging builds east toward the MS
Valley. The axis of this shortwave ridge should reach the lower
to mid MS Valleys to end the period. At the same time, the axis of
the troughing from Canada into the eastern Conus will shift east,
but the region should remain in west to northwest flow aloft. In
fact the next shortwave working into the trough will reach Ontario
to the upper MS Valley later today and then rotate across the
Great Lakes to St Lawrence Valley and northeast from this evening
to early Wednesday evening. A sfc trough or weak cold front will
work toward the region as this system passes to the north with the
sfc trough/front crossing the area on Wednesday. This should keep
the 850 mb temperature trend from today to Wednesday similar if
not a degree or two colder. Thus, the continued warming trend will
be rather gradual across eastern KY.
Overall, the band of clouds with the passing shortwave to begin
the period should work southeast across the area through around
dawn and for a couple of hours after. Otherwise, mostly sunny to
sunny skies will prevail today with highs similar if not a degree
or two warmer than what was observed on Monday. Daytime mixing and
heating should also result in some late morning and after wind
gusts into the 15 to 20 mph range as well. The sfc high pressure
ridge should remained nosed into eastern KY tonight in advance the
approaching front/sfc trough. This scenario should result in
another ridge/valley temperature split and following anticipated
afternoon min dewpoints in the low to mid 20s today, sheltered
valley locations south of I 64 and east of I75 should reach the
mid 20s and perhaps the low 20s again in some cases. Meanwhile,
more open terrain locations and coalfield ridges should be
somewhat mixed ahead of the approaching front and not fall below
the low to mid 30s. With the passing front to be very moisture
starved with few if any clouds of note on Wednesday, temperatures
should moderate a bit more. More active weather should arrive as
we move into the long term period, though rather mild weather
should persist.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
Currently, snowfall is falling across Arizona and the Desert
Southwest due to an upper level low over the region. By Thursday
this low will track westward, across the Rocky Mountains and into
the Southern High Plains. Rain will form out ahead of an occluded
front, warm front, and cold front extending across an area from the
Ohio River Valley and the Till Plains, southwest to the Gulf over
southern Texas.
For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, on Thursday, expect
increasing clouds through the morning, along with an uptick in
southerly winds in heading into the afternoon. As the above system
approaches eastern Kentucky, rain chances will increase heading into
the later afternoon and evening. Current models suggest heaviest
rains will occur overnight Thursday into Friday, with the heaviest
amounts north of the Mountain Parkway. Highs on Thursday will see
temperatures getting into the mid to upper 50s for most areas. With
overcast and rain overnight, lows are only expected to drop into the
mid to 40s.
Friday, rain showers will continue with the steadiest occurring in
the morning hours, tapering off in coverage and intensity heading
into the afternoon. However, while some dynamics such as surface and
upper level forcing is marginal, in some model data, CAPE and
steepening lapse rates support the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Freezing levels look particularly low
in model guidance suggesting any thunderstorms that were to develop,
may produce sub-severe hail. With a strong push of warm air from
southwesterly winds, highs on Friday will attempt to break into the
low 60s. Winds will be breezy, with gusts up to 20-25 mph in spots.
As the system departs Friday evening, lows are expected to drop into
the mid 30s.
Saturday through Monday night, zonal flow will allow for quiet
weather to return during this stretch of time. Highs are expected to
be in the upper 40s on Saturday, with lows dropping into the low to
mid 30s at night. Highs Sunday will approach 60 across eastern
Kentucky, however, with cloudy skies an southwesterly winds expected
to stay somewhat elevated during the night; lows Sunday are expected
to trend warmer during the overnight, dropping into the low 40s.
Monday, some clouds may dissipate, with highs in the 50s during the
day, before cooling into the upper 20s to low 30s at night.
Tuesday, should remain dry, with a possibility of the next system
developing just west of the state during the day. If this were the
case, some shower activity may be move into the area later Tuesday
evening. Models are split on this solution, so rain chances have
been left out of the forecast at this current time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR conditions were reported at TAF issuance time and VFR will
prevail through the period. Southwest to west winds generally
between 5 and 12KT, with daytime mixing resulting in some gusts
into the 15 to 20KT range, should continue through 23Z. Winds
will tend to slacken later in the evening, while winds aloft
should increase ahead of another approaching disturbance. This
will lead to a threat of LLWS during the overnight period. Winds
will become gusty again on Wednesday out of the west at speeds
similar to today.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 28, 2:44 PM EST---------------
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