IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 11:52 PM EST855
FXUS63 KIND 270452
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1152 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Decreasing Cloudiness tonight
- Mostly Sunny and Warmer on Monday
- Wind gusts to 35 mph possible Monday afternoon and evening
- Overall breezy through midweek, above normal much of this week
- Next chance for precipitation late Thursday into Friday
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025
GOES-16 RGB Nighttime Microphysics satellite loop was showing
patches of cirrus moving across central Indiana this evening, in the
fast WNW flow aloft. Hi-Res soundings and satellite trends both
support some clearing overnight from northwest to southeast and with
light winds under a temperature inversion, overnight lows are
expected to drop into the teens or near current dew points. With the
large temperature and dew point spreads, fog impacts are expected to
be absent or minimal.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure over the
southeastern states. Another area of high pressure was found over KS
and the plains. Between these two highs a weak cold front or cusp
was found stretching from Arkansas, through TN to VA. This resulted
in the high over the plains states controlling our weather with a
cooler NW flow in place. A surface ridge, extending from this high,
was nosing east into western IL toward Central Indiana. Aloft, water
vapor imagery showed a nearly zonal flow in place over Indiana, with
a steady stream of mid and high level moisture streaming across the
the plains and into the Ohio valley. However an shallow, elongated
upper trough was found stretching from the upper Midwest to WY.
Upper flow in the wake of the trough was northerly. Temperatures
were in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the forecast area.
Tonight -
Quiet weather is expected through Monday. More of the same is
expected this evening as the steady stream of high clouds pushes
across Central Indiana within the flow aloft. High pressure at the
surface will continue build and nose eastward across Central Indiana
late tonight. A change will arrive late tonight in the form of the
upper trough. As this trough passes, broader subsidence is expected
to begin and the northwesterly flow in the wake of the trough will
push the flow of high moisture south of Indiana. These two effects
will lead to clearing skies late overnight. Lower levels remain dry
per forecast soundings and time heights. Furthermore, preventing
precipitation is the arrival of the surface high which is quite an
unfavorable pattern for precip. Thus just decreasing clouds tonight.
Given the expected clearing overnight, lows on tonight should be
cooler than last night, in the teens.
Monday -
As mentioned above, quiet weather will continue. Strong subsidence
is suggested to be in place aloft as models show northwest flow in
place in the wake of the passed trough. Meanwhile at the surface,
surface ridging in place across Indiana in the morning will drift
south to KY/TN through the day. This will lead to a return of
westerly flow across Central Indiana. A moderate pressure gradient
will be in place, which could result in some gusty winds. Forecast
soundings and time heights show a very dry column on Monday,
indicative of a clear, sunny sky. Thus will expect a mostly sunny
day on Monday, with brisk winds in the afternoon due to the arrival
of the pressure gradient. The sunny skies will help heating on
Monday, allowing for a warmer day and highs in the upper 30s to
around 40.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025
Expect mostly quiet weather through midweek with a drier
airmass in place. Models shows a few upper level systems moving
across the Great Lakes region helping to push weak fronts through
central Indiana. Little to no forcing or available moisture will
limit any precipitation chances from these systems, but the
associated fronts should allow for breezy conditions to persist
during the week.
A noticeable warming trend is expected during the week within
predominately SW flow. Look for highs in the 40s Tuesday onward with
southern counties likely reaching the low 50s by late this week or
into the weekend. Cold air advection behind a weak cold front late
Wednesday should provide a brief cooldown before the warming trend
continues. Lows are forecasted to be in the mid 20s Wednesday night.
Surface high pressure overhead Wednesday night into Thursday will
allow for quiet weather to persist before a low pressure system
moves in towards the end of the week. Increasing moisture advection
and forcing will likely support precipitation at towards the end of
the period, but diverging model solutions leads to some uncertainty
in exact timing for onset of precipitation.
Given the tendency for NBM to increase rain chances too quickly with
an antecedent dry airmass in place, POPs have been delayed slightly
until Thursday night. Forecast soundings show a very dry airmass
during the day Thursday which will take time to saturate. Latest
model runs have trended quicker as yesterday it appeared
precipitation would not move in until late Friday.
A quicker system has also led to models keeping the disturbance
stronger supporting stronger WAA and slightly higher QPF values. The
stronger overall WAA is noticeable when looking at the latest
forecasted lows Thur/Fri night which are much warmer compared to
yesterday. Wintry precipitation is no longer expected as
temperatures should remain above freezing.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1152 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025
Impacts:
- Southwesterly wind gusts to 30kts this afternoon.
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with residual high
cirrus clearing after 08Z with additional high clouds arriving
tonight after 00Z. Southwesterly winds will increase through the
morning with gusts to 25-30kts by the afternoon as surface pressure
gradient tightens. Strongest winds will be at LAF. Surface gusts
will then drop to around 20kts through the overnight hours going
into Tuesday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...White
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 11:52 PM EST---------------
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