ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 9:03 AM EST595
FXUS61 KILN 241403
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
903 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build east into the central Great
Lakes and middle Ohio Valley today. The high will then move east
of the area tonight. Another weak cold front is expected to
pass east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday into
Saturday night, followed by high pressure once again on Sunday.
Temperatures will increase to near normal levels this weekend,
then above normal heading into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will build into the region from the west
today. Shallow moisture will cause some patches of clouds (and
perhaps a few flurries), with the highest cloud coverage over
central Ohio. Temperatures will climb into the 20s today across
most of the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The ridge axis will shift east of the area tonight. Under a
west to northwest flow aloft, some mid and high level clouds
will spill east across the forecast area. Meanwhile, southerly
flow will increase overnight and into Saturday ahead of a weak
cold front. Clouds will thicken more on Saturday, particularly
in the north. In the broad isentropic/WAA regime ahead of the
cold front, a slight chance of snow will be possible in the
afternoon across our far northern zones. After lows in the
single digits to mid teens tonight, highs on Saturday will rise
into the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Slight chances of precip exist on Thursday and Friday. Rain on
Thursday will mix with and changing to snow as temperatures cool
overnight, then change back to rain during the day Friday.
Otherwise, the bulk of the forecast is dry.
In the upper atmosphere, zonal westerly flow is in store for
the region through Sunday night, then turns northwest early
Monday in response to the passage of s/w energy.
European and Canadian appear to be in good sync in the latter
part of the extended, with the GFS showing a significant
divergence. While differences begin to show on Tuesday, the
stark differences are notable early Wednesday. This ultimately
results in a low confidence forecast for the latter half of the
coming week. By 12z Friday, the Euro and GFS are polar opposites
with the Euro supporting a deeply stacked low in the plains and
the GFS having a broad high over the eastern half of the
country.
Tuesday night shows the Euro/Canadian have a strong surface low
in deep nw flow over the Great Lakes while the GFS is much more
broad with the surface low. The GFS's broad low is slowing down
building high pressure to the w/nw and has a stronger influx of
colder air in store for Thursday. The NBM sides with a warmer
Euro Thurs, the cooler GFS overnight, and the middle ground on
Friday.
High temperatures in the 20s and 30s on Sunday will warm into
the upper 30s and 40s by Tuesday, then fall to the 30s for
Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows in the 20s Saturday night
will drop to the upper teens Sunday night, then bump into the
upper 20s Mon and Tues nights. From there, a slow and steady
decline has readings bottom out from the mid teens to mid 20s
Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For today, surface high pressure will gradually build east into
the central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. This will allow
winds to back to a more west/southwest direction between 5 and
10 knots. We will still be in a CAA pattern, and with lingering
low level moisture some MVFR ceilings may redevelop for a period
across the eastern terminals. A flurry or two may linger in
this region as well. Overall, stratocumulus clouds should then
thin/dissipate toward 00Z Saturday.
For tonight, the surface ridge axis will move east of the
region. Winds will back to a southerly direction and sustained
speeds will increase between 6 and 12 knots (outside of
valleys). Winds may locally gust up to 20 knots across northern
sections. A low level jet now looks like it could be strong
enough to bring a period of LLWS late tonight to the western
terminals at least. This has been added to the forecast. In
addition, mid and high level clouds will increase from the
west overnight.
OUTLOOK...LLWS likely Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings possible
Saturday night into Sunday and again on Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 9:03 AM EST---------------
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