CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 6:23 AM EST803
FXUS61 KCLE 261123
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
623 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sweeps eastward through our area through about daybreak
this morning. Behind the front, a ridge attempts to build from the
central and eventually southern Great Plains as a trough lingers
over and very near the Great Lakes through Monday. The trough is
expected to expand to the rest of our region Monday night into
Tuesday as a cold front sweeps generally southward through northern
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6:23 AM EST Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary. The surface cold front
has likely exited our region to the east since winds were
exhibiting a large W'erly component at all of our surface
weather stations as of 6 AM EST. Please see discussion below for
further details.
Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect the Great Lakes region and Upper OH Valley
through Monday. At the surface, a cold front will continue to sweep
E'ward through our CWA through about daybreak this morning. Behind
the front, a ridge noses into our CWA from the central and
eventually southern Great Plains as net troughing persists over and
very near the Great Lakes. Net low-level CAA behind the cold front
will contribute to daytime highs reaching the 20's in NW PA and the
mid 20's to lower 30's in northern OH today. The aforementioned
weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will allow net
low-level WAA to develop over our CWA tonight and persist through
sunset Monday evening. Overnight lows are expected to reach mainly
the 15F to 20F range around daybreak Monday and be followed by highs
in the upper 20's to mid 30's Monday afternoon as daytime heating
amidst mainly clear to partly cloudy sky is complemented by the WAA
regime. A tightening synoptic MSLP gradient between the
aforementioned surface ridge and trough and diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer tapping into stronger flow aloft are
expected to allow SW'erly surface winds to gust as high as 35 to 45
mph late Monday morning through the afternoon. Will continue to
monitor forecast trends for the possible need for a Wind
Advisory, which has peak gust criteria of 46 to 57 mph.
As for precip potential, rather dry air at/near the surface is
expected to permit a dry cold front passage this morning. Behind the
front, primarily fair weather is expected through Monday as a
lowering and stabilizing subsidence inversion accompanies the
aforementioned surface ridge. However, the net low-level CAA behind
the cold front is expected to allow 850 mb temperatures to cool to
near -13C over 0C to ~1C Lake Erie toward daybreak this morning. 850
mb temperatures will then likely flirt with -13C through tonight as
the low-level atmospheric column remains quite dry. As a result,
appreciable upward heat and moisture fluxes through openings in the
lake ice cover should yield weak lake-induced CAPE and lake-induced
equilibrium levels (EL's) near 3kft to 4kft above the eastern-half
of Lake Erie through this evening. Accordingly, light and periodic
lake-effect snow (LES) showers are expected to impact far-NE OH
and NW PA amidst W'erly to WSW'erly mean low-level flow through
this early evening. Later this evening, the lingering LES is
expected to shift offshore our CWA as mean low-level flow backs to
SW'erly. The LES is expected to dissipate during the wee hours
of Monday morning as the aforementioned lowering subsidence
inversion causes lake-induced EL's to decrease toward 1kft
above Lake Erie and lake-induced CCL's disappear per BUFKIT
model soundings. LES accumulations are expected to be one inch
or less.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Strong low pressure will be wrapped up over eastern Canada Monday
night, with its associated (potent) upper trough diving into New
England. The low's trailing cold front will pass north to south
across the local area late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Ahead of the cold front and particularly before midnight, gusty
southwest winds will continue. Generally thinking 30-40 MPH gusts
will handle it, but potential will exist for some 45+ MPH gusts
across Northwest OH and along the lakeshore farther east before
midnight. Relatively shallow mixing depths in a warm advection
regime argue against stronger gusts, though with a 45-55kt+ 925mb
jet over Northwest OH and Lake Erie Monday evening it will still be
windy. Flow aloft starts weakening overnight, so while it will
remain on the breezy side until the frontal passage gusts will
gradually come down through the night.
The other item of note with the frontal passage will be some snow.
Synoptic snow will likely break out ahead of the front Monday
evening into Monday night across Northeast OH (especially east of I-
77), with confidence increasing to "categorical" levels (80%+ POPs)
from near the OH/PA line points east into Northwest PA. A forced
band of snow showers along the front itself, enhanced at least a bit
by the cold/icy lake, is expected to drop off of Lake Erie and into
Northeast OH and Northwest PA early Tuesday morning. Some snow
showers could occur as far west as North Central OH, though the
frontal circulation will be increasingly shallow farther west...so
any burst of snow with the front will be increasingly less
consequential the farther west of the primary snowbelt one heads.
Activity will quickly diminish to light lingering lake effect
flurries/snow showers Tuesday morning, as the cold advection behind
the front is rather short-lived and shallow, arguing against much
lake effect response behind the front (especially with so much ice
on the lake). There will be a narrow ribbon of higher low to mid-
level theta-e air ahead of the front, with this airmass being lifted
by strong isentropic lift ahead of the front amid a 60-80kt W-SW low-
mid level jet. This could lead to a period of moderate snow rates
across Northwest PA for a few hours ahead of the front before the
brief burst of snow along the front itself pre-dawn Tuesday. Have
snow totals of 2-4" across most of Erie/Crawford Counties (highest
amounts in the higher terrain of eastern Erie and northeastern
Crawford), tapering to an inch or two in the primary snowbelt of
Northeast OH and an inch or less into the Cleveland/Akron area. A
Winter Wx Advisory may be needed for Northwest PA, especially
considering winds will be gusting over 30 MPH most of Monday night,
which could cause some blowing/drifting and lower visibility. The
short duration of the event, limited lake contribution, and
relatively low snow to liquid ratios (most of the lift looks focused
below the dendritic growth zone) should keep snow amounts from
getting too out of control, so no rush on any headlines yet.
Another shortwave and associated low pressure will drop southeast
across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, pushing
a trailing cold front across the local area Wednesday morning. This
will be a tamer version of the Monday-Tuesday system, with some
increase in breeziness and some snow showers along and ahead of the
cold front, especially from far Northeast OH into Northwest PA. Some
lake enhanced/effect snow showers are likely along and behind the
frontal passage Wednesday into Wednesday night with west-northwest
wind, though with only a glancing blow of deeper cold and quite a
bit of ice on the lake am not expecting too much accumulation...both
with synoptic snow with the front or with the lingering lake effect.
Lows Monday night are expected to be in the 20s, with highs in the
30s on Tuesday (perhaps a few upper 20s in the higher terrain of
Northwest PA). Lows should range from the mid 20s to lower 30s
Tuesday night with highs on Wednesday reaching the 30s before noon,
before starting to slide through the afternoon behind the cold
front. Lows Wednesday night fall into the 10s to lower 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Troughing over the Northeast to start the long term is expected to
give way to a more zonal and mild pattern to end the week and start
the weekend. There is good agreement that a closed low in the sub-
tropical jet will eject out of the Southwest US on Thursday and
drift east into the weekend. The exact timing, track, and intensity
of this feature are not agreed upon yet, which is typical for this
distance out. The 0z GFS represents a faster solution, limiting time
for warm air to build ahead of the system and allowing for a bit
more interaction with the polar jet stream. This leads to a rain to
snow scenario arriving Friday and lingering into Saturday. The 0z
Euro and CMC models offer a (more reasonable) slightly slower
solution, with more warm advection ahead of the approaching low and
less interaction with the polar jet. This leads to a rainier system
arriving late Friday or Friday night, lasting into Saturday. Plenty
of time to iron out details with this system, with the current
forecast having an increase in POPs for more rain than snow Friday
and Saturday. A more zonal and generally milder pattern should
persist into the start of February behind this system.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded/weak
disturbances affect our region through 12Z/Mon. At the surface,
a high pressure center shifting S'ward over the central and
southern Great Plains will extend a ridge to the Upper OH Valley
and vicinity as a trough lingers over and very near the Great
Lakes. Our regional surface winds trend SW'erly to W'erly
around 5 to 15 knots. Occasional gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are
expected, especially at/near KERI and through this evening.
Primarily few to scattered and periodic low clouds are expected
through 12Z/Mon. Farther aloft, scattered to widespread upper-
level clouds are expected through the TAF period. Mainly fair
weather and VFR are forecast. However, lake-effect stratocumuli
and associated MVFR ceilings are expected to impact far-NE OH
and NW PA through ~23Z/Sun before shifting N'ward and offshore.
These lake-effect stratocumuli are expected to produce periodic
light snow, including at KERI. Visibility is expected to vary
between VFR and IFR in the snow.
Outlook...Periodic snow with non-VFR expected this Monday night
through Wednesday night, especially in NE OH and NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
Brisk west-southwest winds are slackening early this morning, with
generally 10-20kt winds expected to be common today...perhaps
briefly dipping below 10kt over the western basin. Winds begin
increasing out of the southwest tonight to 15-25kt by early Monday.
Southwest winds increase further ahead of an approaching cold front
Monday and Monday evening, peaking at 25-30kt in the western basin
and at 30-40kt gales over the central and eastern basins. A Gale
Watch remains in effect for Monday and Monday night from Vermilion,
OH east. Winds veer more northwesterly and decrease to 10-15 knots
into Tuesday morning behind the cold frontal passage. After brief
high pressure Tuesday afternoon, winds shift southwest and increase
to 20-25kt Tuesday night ahead of the next approaching cold front.
Winds shift west-northwest on Wednesday behind the front and linger
at 15-25kt. Winds gradually subside Wednesday night and Thursday.
Lake Erie is primarily ice covered, minus a larger patch of mainly
ice-free water east-northeast of Long Point. Visible satellite loops
from Saturday suggest the ice is thin and not locked in east of the
islands, with lots of cracks and some ice movement clearly evident.
Ice is thicker from the islands points west, but even there some
thinner spots are obvious on satellite and a bit of ice movement was
evident on loops from Saturday. The potential for ice floes and
shifting of ice will continue to pose a hazard to anyone thinking of
venturing on the ice and to shipping. Of particular concern will be
during the day Monday and Monday night, when the strongest winds and
a third day of relatively milder daytime temperatures will cause the
greatest risk for significant ice movement east of the islands,
which could impact shipping, along with ice floes breaking off from
the shoreline, which would strand anyone on the ice.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley NY due to extensive
ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
LEZ145>149-165>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 6:23 AM EST---------------
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