LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 12:09 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...634
FXUS63 KLMK 250509
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1209 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Milder temperatures and mostly dry weather is expected from this
weekend into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2025
Temperature across the region are sitting in the low 20s, with
typical cool spots already in the teens. GOES Nighttime Microphysics
shows mostly clear skycover overhead, though some light cirrus along
and north of I-64 will continue tonight, as mentioned in the
afternoon forecast package. Light southerly sfc winds and weak WAA
will likely support temps remaining steady or even a slight gradual
rise by dawn tomorrow morning. The coldest temps for tonight will be
over the Bluegrass where partial snow cover remains, which the
forecast remains unchanged with low teens expected there. Overall,
the entire forecast remains in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 302 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2025
At this hour, the last of the stratus clouds and flurries is exiting
the Lake Cumberland region with sunny skies over most of central KY
and southern IN. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 20s across
much of central KY and southern IN, with low 30s across southern KY.
With sfc high pressure extending from the lower Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio Valley this afternoon, clear skies and light westerly
winds are expected for the rest of this afternoon and evening.
This evening into tonight, an upper level shortwave trough will
descend from the Canadian Prairies toward the upper Midwest. Mid-
level height falls over the middle and upper Mississippi valley
combined with developing southeast US ridging will result in the
development of a southwesterly H85 jet early Saturday morning,
though the core of the jet will remain from the Wabash Valley to the
north and west. While sfc winds should be light and variable across
most of the area this evening, a strengthening sfc pressure gradient
should lead to the development of persistent light S/SE winds late
tonight into early Saturday morning. While mid- and high-level
clouds should increase along and north of I-64 tonight into tomorrow
morning, forecast soundings show dry air in the lowest 10-15 kft, so
would expect rural areas and valleys to still be able to decouple
overnight. Temperatures tonight should fall quickly after sunset,
remaining steady or even rising slowly by dawn tomorrow morning.
Currently forecasting lows ranging from the lower teens across the
snow covered portions of the Bluegrass to the low 20s along and west
of the Natcher Parkway.
Tomorrow, the mid- and upper-level trough will slide across the
Great Lakes region as a weak sfc front approaches the area from the
NW. Some of the SW flow from the H85 jet aloft tonight should
translate down to the surface as low-level lapse rates steepen
tomorrow morning, and tomorrow should be a breezy day with S/SW
winds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph. This SW breeze,
combined with low-level height rises, should help temperatures surge
upwards tomorrow. Lingering upper sky cover and snow pack may hold
temperatures down a bit over north central KY and southern IN;
however, highs tomorrow should still be 15-20 degrees warmer than
today.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2025
Quasi-zonal flow over the Ohio Valley through the bulk of the long
term will feature dry weather and near normal temperatures. Other
than a few embedded systems passing by to our north on Monday and
again Tues. Night into Wed., continuous areas of sfc high pressure
will keep our weather quiet.
A weak, moisture starved cold front will work across the area Sat.
night into Sunday. While temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
than on Saturday, highs will still range in the low/mid 40s with
upper 30s across southern IN. Winds become more southwesterly Monday
through the middle of the week increasing WAA. Highs will slowly
increase from the low/mid 40s on Monday, to the low/mid 50s on Tues
and Wed with upper 40s across southern IN.
The system on Wednesday is a quick moving clipper that will cross
the Great Lakes and push a cold front across the region. Models
continue to keep the best moisture and lift south into TN just up
into the KY/TN border Wed night into Thur. These PoPs are currently
around 10-20 percent. Sfc high pressure will builds in over the Ohio
Valley for Thursday with slightly cooler temperatures as high fall
back into the low/mid 40s.
A cutoff low will setup over southern CA at the start of the week
and remain over the Desert SW through of the week as a split flow
sets up over the CONUS. Late Friday into the start of the weekend
this low will get absorbed by the northern flow of the jet. This
will develop a sfc low over the TX panhandle that will lift
northeast into the Upper Midwest by the weekend. Deterministic
models continue to have significant different solutions on timing
with the EURO being quicker than the GFS, spreading rain and
possible snow into the area by Friday, while the GFS is slower. For
now, have increasing PoPs for Friday with just a chance of rain/snow
early Friday morning. Confidence is low given the model discrepancy.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
Winds will increase out of the southwest today in our position
between high pressure over the Carolinas and a weak cold front
approaching from the northwest. The front will weaken as it enters
the region tonight, accompanied by broken cirrus.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...13
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 12:09 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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