IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 23, 2:59 PM EST009
FXUS63 KIND 231959
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow showers and flurries tapering off late this afternoon
into the early evening.
- Temperatures in the single digits tonight with near or slightly
below zero wind chills north of I-70.
- Temperatures warm into the 30s this weekend, with even warmer for
air for early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
Snow showers are beginning to taper off this afternoon as a cold
front continues to push eastward. Current KIND radar imagery depicts
isolated snow showers mainly across far eastern counties with light
snow or flurries lingering further west. Snowfall rates are much
lower now that the strongest forcing has shifted east which should
mostly limit the potential for additional accumulations. However, a
few tenths of an inch or less of snowfall accumulation cannot be
completely ruled across eastern counties though where light snow may
linger until the early evening.
Expect surface high pressure to then build in behind the departing
front this evening into tonight providing quiet weather conditions.
Cold air advection will keep abnormally cold temperatures in the
forecast through the short term period. Temperatures are likely
going to fall into the single digits for most locations. Winds
becoming light overnight due to a weakening gradient should limit
the threat for excessively cold wind chills, but northern counties
could still see wind chill values around or slightly below zero.
Look for quiet weather conditions to continue through Friday with
surface high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley. A drier airmass
settling over the region will help provide more sunshine to end the
work week. Forecast soundings show a strong subsidence inversion
during the day with a shallow saturated near surface layer. This
should help keep some low clouds around. Winds will remain light and
become southwesterly in the afternoon once surface high pressure
begins to shift east.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 259 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
A relatively quiet and significantly milder stretch of weather is
likely for the long term period, with minor exceptions.
The upper level pattern will be largely quasizonal to weakly
cyclonic, with broad surface high pressure generally in control
across the southeastern and north central CONUS. This will allow for
mostly dry conditions over the weekend into mid week next week, and
for temperatures to moderate significantly, with highs and lows much
nearer to seasonal normals.
A glancing blow from an upper level wave moving through the Great
Lakes Saturday morning may spark a few flurries or snow showers over
the northern half or so of the area, though chances are low with
moisture quality and depth in question, and any Gulf moisture
transport blocked by the aforementioned surface high.
The coolest day of the long term period is likely to be Sunday, with
highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s in the wake of the Saturday wave.
Otherwise, our next opportunity for precipitation will come toward
the very end of the forecast period in the middle of next week, as a
closed low, which will slowly drift through California and the
Desert Southwest over the weekend into the early week, begins to
pull northeast toward the Great Lakes and be reabsorbed into a
larger longwave trough shifting eastward into the central US.
Chances will remain low at this time due to model inconsistencies.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
Impacts:
- Scattered snow showers expected through this afternoon
- MVFR or worse visibilities possible in heavier snow showers
- MVFR ceilings expected to persist through this afternoon before
improving to VFR late this evening into tonight
- NW winds today and tonight becoming SW during the day Friday
Discussion:
MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through the day before
clearing out this evening into tonight. Scattered snow showers are
also occurring with MVFR or worse visibilities at times
Snow showers will likely continue through the afternoon at most
sites as a cold front moves through. Once the front passes later
this afternoon and into the evening, surface high pressure builds in
with drier air leading to clearing skies and diminishing winds from
west to east. VFR conditions will return early in the night.
Look for predominately NW winds through tonight before backing and
becoming SW on Friday. VFR conditions also persist into Friday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Melo
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 23, 2:59 PM EST---------------
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