PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 22, 9:53 AM EST956
FXUS61 KPBZ 221453
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
953 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-zero wind chills continue today, and the Cold Weather
Advisory and Extreme Cold Warning remain in effect across the
region until early afternoon. Dry weather today with light snow
returning Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cold Weather Advisory/Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect.
- Dry with increasing mid/upper cloud coverage.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
A very cold, record-setting cold in some cases, morning continues
across the area, though it looks nicer out than it feels with plenty
of sunshine. Morgantown, WV bottomed out at a record low of -6F and
Wheeling, WV dipped to a record low of -7F. PIT reached -9F
which is 6 degrees warmer than the record low of -14F. Our
morning sounding depicts a bone dry 0.09" PWAT with an inversion
all the way up to ~600 mb providing a warmer temperature at
15kft than at the surface. The ongoing Cold Weather Advisory and
Extreme Cold Warning remain in effect until 1PM this afternoon.
Aside from the cold, some high clouds are approaching through the
Ohio Valley downstream of an approaching upper wave, but strong 1036
mb high pressure centered overhead will maintain a dry day today.
Southerly flow will usher in some weak "warm" advection as 850 mb
temperatures increase to -12 to -13C and NBM suggests a good chance
for highs to reach into the teens south of I-80 whereas up that way
we'll likely hold in the upper single digits. Wind chills this
afternoon under a 5-10 mph wind will still remain in the upper
negative to positive single digits.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Temperatures will begin to moderate Thursday.
- Light snow returns Thursday evening with minimal accumulation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight and early Thursday morning will again be cold with wind
chills dipping below zero again overnight. However, with light wind,
wind chill values should stay above Cold Weather Advisory criteria (-
10F). Latest ensemble guidance shows 20% or lower chance for wind
chills to hit -10F or below overnight.
The aforementioned shortwave will introduce a slight chance of snow
showers into portions of the region later in the afternoon, mainly
north of Pittsburgh. Ensemble soundings show some mid- level
moisture advection, but still dry low levels from ~800 mb down. This
is going to make it tough for snow to reach the ground. The NAM is a
bit more aggressive with saturation occurring and suggests a couple
tenths possible, though this is likely more representative of the
worst case scenario. As a whole, HREF probability for measurable
snowfall through Thursday night is <20% areawide. The best shot
for a couple tenths would be the ridges where orographic ascent
may aid in enhanced forcing, though the moisture issue still
remains.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Below average temps are expected to linger through early next
week
- There is the potential of a large-scale disturbance to impact
portions of the region Monday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
A passing shortwave over the Great Lakes will introduce a slight
chance of snow showers into portions of the region late
Thursday into early Friday; most likely north of Pittsburgh.
Ridging towards our zone will eject the shortwave north early
Saturday and zonal flow will likely persist. However,
temperatures will continue to remain cold (afternoon highs in
the 20s/teens to single digits overnight) through Saturday.
Long range models are struggling if temperatures will reach
near or above freezing Sunday into Monday due to the strength of
a trough over the Great Lakes/Northeast. The NBM 25th to 75th
percentile ranges between low-30s (25th percentile) to mid-30s
(75th percentile) on Sunday, upper-20s (25th percentile) to
mid-30s (75th percentile) on Monday.
A few long range ensemble models project a shortwave ejecting out
of the Great Plains on Monday. This could impact our
precipitation/snow potential. However, confidence is still very
low o the occurrence.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with high
confidence. Clear sky this morning will be replaced by mid and
upper level cloud cover by the afternoon hours as (welcome) warm
advection take place. Light wind with a southerly direction can
also be expected.
Outlook... Restriction and precipitation chances increase
Thursday with the likely approach/passage of the next upper
level trough. Periods of lower cloud cover may then linger into
the weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Anomalously cold weather continues today with some locations
approaching record values. Attached below are the standing
climatology for local sites. Pittsburgh has a full record, while
other sites are partial records and may not be fully reflective
of historical temperatures:
January 22nd: High Minimum Low Minimum
Pittsburgh, PA 10F (1961) -14F (1936)
Wheeling, WV 11F (2014) -4F (2014)
Morgantown, WV 11F (2014) -5F (1984)
New Philadelphia, OH 5F (1984) -15F (1994)
Zanesville, OH 13F (2014) -11F (2011)
DuBois, PA 8F (2013) -11F (1984)
Below is the lowest daily high and daily low temperatures of the
21st century. This encompasses all days of all months running
from January 2000 to present:
High Minimum Low Minimum
Pittsburgh, PA 4F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/17/2009)
(02/20/2015)
Wheeling, WV 5F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/07/2014)
Morgantown, WV 7F (01/07/2014) -9F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014) (01/29/2014)
New Philadelphia, OH 6F (01/16/2009) -18F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014)
(02/15/2015)
Zanesville, OH 6F (01/28/2014) -20F (01/29/2014)
DuBois, PA 0F (01/07/2014) -17F (02/16/2015)
In addition, Pittsburgh has not seen a daytime high below 4F
since January of 1994. The last time Pittsburgh's minimum
temperature was less than or equal to -5F was December 2022.
Last time it was below or equal to -10F was February 2015.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ074-
076-078.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511.
Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/MLB
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...22/CL/AK
CLIMATE...Milcarek
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 22, 9:53 AM EST---------------
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