PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 11:06 AM EST517
FXUS61 KPBZ 201606
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1106 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Potentially dangerous sub freezing wind chills is expected
through Wednesday; Cold Weather Advisory/Extreme Cold Warnings
remains in effect across the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Linger light snow along the ridges and near I-80 through this
afternoon
- Cold Weather Advisory/Extreme Cold Warning in effect
Residual moisture from an exiting low, south and east of
Pittsburgh, has create areas of lingering cloud coverage and
light snow showers. Isolated areas could measure 0.1 to 0.3
inches of snow within the lower elevations; higher terrain
could measure 0.5 inches to 1.0 inches.
Lake effect potential north of Pittsburgh will decrease as mid
and low-lvl winds shift from the west today. Forest, Clarion,
Jefferson, and Venango county may see an occasional snow
shower/flurries throughout the day but additional measurements
will be likely be less than 0.5 inches.
Temperatures will struggle to reach the low to mid-teens today
despite the sunshine as an arctic airmass continues to advance
into the Ohio River Valley from the west. With wind gust range
from 20 to 25mph, expected wind chill values to range from
-5F to -15F for the lower elevations through this evening; -15F to
-30F in the higher terrain. Therefore, cold weather headlines
will continue to remain in effect.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Arctic outbreak with dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills.
- Extreme Cold Warning for ridges and Advisory for lowlands in
effect.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
EXTREME COLD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
Dangerously cold temperatures are expected to continue into the
short term period as an anomalously deep trough over eastern
North America opens the door for arctic air to make its way from
northern Canada into the eastern CONUS.
Locally, temperatures will hover 20 to 25 degrees below normal
for this time of year, with Tuesday morning starting out near or
slightly below zero, increasing to the upper single digits to
low teens Tuesday afternoon, and then plummeting to around -10
degrees Tuesday night. Extreme Cold Warnings are in effect for
the ridges of southwest PA and northern WV where wind chills
will periodically dip to -20 to -25 degrees. A Cold Weather
Advisory is in effect for the rest of the area with wind chills
in the -10 to -20 degree range. However, we will need to monitor
trends for low temperatures and wind chills Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning when some lowland areas could exceed
Extreme Cold Warning criteria (-20 degrees south of I-80, -25
degrees north of the interstate) and upgrades may be needed.
Flurries will be possible during the day Tuesday if there is
enough low-level moisture, though with little to no accumulation.
We recommend preparing for these cold conditions. Unprotected
pipes can freeze and burst. Prolonged exposure to the cold may
lead to hypothermia. Frostbite can occur in as little as 30
minutes for exposed skin. Check in routinely with vulnerable
friends and family. Extreme care is encouraged for the
protection of pets and animals. Rescheduling any events,
especially those taking place outdoors, is also encouraged.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- There will be some warming by the end of the week but
temperatures remain below normal through at least Saturday.
- Precipitation chances may increase Friday into the weekend as
another upper trough approaches from the west.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Very cold temperatures hang on through Wednesday night, with
highs Wednesday afternoon in the upper single digits to low
teens and nighttime lows in the lower single digits to near
zero (wind chills near or slightly below zero). Gradual warming
is expected thereafter to close the week as global ensembles
are in fair agreement that the eastern CONUS trough departs and
we see weak height rises in response to another upstream trough
digging into the central CONUS. Temperatures rebound into the
20s Friday and 30s next weekend. Depending on the eventual
progression of the upstream trough, this warming could also be
accompanied by a round of increasing precip chances.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Morning lake enhanced showers are expected to taper off (while
lifting slightly NE) by this afternoon as dry advection and
subsidence increases, but brief IFR vsbys could still develop
in these bands. Otherwise, scattered to broken MVFR to low VFR
stratocu are expected (with some redevelopment possible between
14z-18z) amid strong cold advection before subsidence clears
stratus W to E by tonight.
Steep lapse rates and residual pressure gradients will yield
gusts between 15-25kts with wind exhibiting a slight backing
from the WNW to the W. There is high confidence (80+%
probability of VFR) with light WSW wind overnight.
Outlook...
A reinforcing trough returns MVFR cig restriction potential
Tuesday (60-80% probability of recurrence) along with scattered
light afternoon snow showers. VFR is likely (near 100%
probability) Wednesday as surface high pressure sits over the
region. Restriction and precipitation chances increase Friday
with the likely approach/passage of the next upper level trough.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A period of anomalously cold weather is expected to pass Monday
through Wednesday that will challenge many standing January
temperature records. Attached below are the standing
climatology for local sites. Pittsburgh has a full record,
while other sites are partial records and may not be fully
reflective of historical temperatures:
January 20th: High Minimum Low Minimum
Pittsburgh, PA 1F (1985) -18F (1985)
Wheeling, WV 13F (1940) -1F (1940)
Morgantown, WV 3F (1985) -17F (1985)
New Philadelphia, OH -3F (1994) -22F (1994)
Zanesville, OH -2F (1985) -17F (1985)
DuBois, PA -2F (1985) -19F (1985)
January 21st: High Minimum Low Minimum
Pittsburgh, PA 5F (1984) -18F (1985)
Wheeling, WV 12F (2000) -2F (1924)
Morgantown, WV 2F (1985) -18F (1985)
New Philadelphia, OH -8F (1985) -19F (1985)
Zanesville, OH 7F (1985) -22F (1984)
DuBois, PA 0F (1985) -22F (1985)
January 22nd: High Minimum Low Minimum
Pittsburgh, PA 10F (1961) -14F (1936)
Wheeling, WV 11F (2014) -4F (2014)
Morgantown, WV 11F (2014) -5F (1984)
New Philadelphia, OH 5F (1984) -15F (1994)
Zanesville, OH 13F (2014) -11F (2011)
DuBois, PA 8F (2013) -11F (1984)
Below is the lowest daily high and daily low temperatures of the
21st century. This encompasses all days of all months running
from January 2000 to present:
High Minimum Low Minimum
Pittsburgh, PA 4F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/17/2009)
(02/20/2015)
Wheeling, WV 5F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/07/2014)
Morgantown, WV 7F (01/07/2014) -9F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014) (01/29/2014)
New Philadelphia, OH 6F (01/16/2009) -18F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014)
(02/15/2015)
Zanesville, OH 6F (01/28/2014) -20F (01/29/2014)
DuBois, PA 0F (01/07/2014) -17F (02/16/2015)
In addition, Pittsburgh has not seen a daytime high below 4F
since January of 1994. Pittsburgh has also has not seen 2
consecutive days of high temperatures less than 10F since
January of 1997. If you extend this statistic to 3 days, you
would have to go back to February 1899.
The last time Pittsburgh's minimum temperature was less than or
equal to -5F was December 2022. Last time it was below or equal
to -10F was February 2015. For 2 consecutive days of lows less
than or equal -10F, you would have to go back to January of
1994.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ074-076-
078.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>511.
Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Cermak/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Cermak/Shallenberger/Lupo
AVIATION...Frazier
CLIMATE...
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 11:06 AM EST---------------
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