LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 5:46 PM EST129
FXUS63 KLMK 202246
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
546 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Frigid temperatures through Wednesday morning with wind chills
occasionally dipping into the single digits below zero.
* Scattered flurries late tonight into Tuesday. Isolated light
snow showers possible in the Bluegrass Tuesday afternoon.
* Spotty flurries Thursday into Friday. Rain/snow chances returning
on Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
Clouds over the central and southern Plains today will sweep
eastward ahead of a digging upper trough tonight, bringing mostly
cloudy skies to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ceilings will
gradually lower through the night, eroding the initially very dry
low level air. In temperatures this cold it's not difficult to
squeeze out some flurries, and there will be a weak cold front
coming in form the northwest in addition to the upper trough, so
will continue to carry flurries in the forecast after midnight
tonight as the clouds thicken and lower enough to produce flakes
that can make it to the ground.
Temperatures may drop quickly this evening, but then level out as
clouds move in by mid-evening and become thicker and more widespread
overnight. Though apparent temperatures likely won't *quite* make it
to strict advisory criteria tonight, it will still be a very cold
night and with snow on the ground temps could fall a bit farther
than forecast even with the blanket of clouds moving in. There may
also be a greater societal impact Tuesday morning with schools
back in session after the holiday. After chatting with neighbors
will go ahead and hoist another Cold Weather Advisory. Since
Tuesday night should a a few degrees colder than tonight, will
just let the headline ride right through Tuesday night.
On Tuesday the overnight clouds will push off to the east in the
morning, with scattered cu developing in the afternoon. Though
moisture will not be deep, high RH is progged in the 3-6k' layer to
support those scattered afternoon clouds. A narrow band of weak
forcing passing through may be enough to spark isolated very light
snow showers in the Bluegrass. HREF grand ensemble is indicating a
small chance of a few showers managing to put down a very light
dusting around a tenth of an inch. Will go ahead and include a very
low mentionable PoP, around 15-19%, for a low confidence chance of
isolated light snow showers in the Bluegrass Tuesday afternoon,
which meshes well with offices to our northeast and east.
Tuesday will be another cold day with highs generally in the teens;
low 20s possible near the Tennessee border if the morning clouds
move out as expected. Breezes coming in from the west will add to
the cold, and may become slightly gusty in the afternoon to around
15-20 mph. Afternoon wind chills will still only be in the single
digits above zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
Tuesday night, an upper ridge over the Ohio Valley will usher in
northwest flow that will push a surface high directly towards
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This will produce nearly calm
winds and clear skies, resulting in the coolest night of the current
cold stretch, and with temperatures expected to drop to single
digits above and below zero, any wind could easily push winds into
Cold Weather Advisory levels, so in coordination with surrounding
offices, we are issuing a Cold Weather Advisory that begins tonight
and lasts into Wednesday morning.
As soon as the surface high pushes through the Lower Ohio Valley,
warm air advection will begin flowing into the region. High
temperatures will increase close to 10 degrees both Wednesday and
Thursday with temperatures reaching the low 20s to low 30s on
Wednesday and low 30s to low 40s by Thursday. Temperatures will
remain in this area through Friday.
Friday, some in the area could see a few flurries or light snow
showers as a shortwave develops into a small upper trough with a
nearby surface low. The GFS places the surface low in the Tennessee
Valley Friday morning. This could produce some snow in southwest
Kentucky as profiles show fairly deep moisture saturating the
surface up through the DGZ, but model to model and run to run
consistency isn't there to fully count on this happening. Even if it
does happen, it isn't expected to be much with temperatures warming
to above freezing.
Saturday, ahead of an approaching cold front, the pressure gradient
over the Lower Ohio Valley will begin increasing between surface
high pressure over the Southeast and low pressure moving east from
the southern Plains towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. Warm air
advection is expected to lift highs into the mid 40s to low 50s
throughout the CWA. The isentropically lifted southern flow will
also usher in precipitation chances by late Saturday night into
early Sunday morning ahead of the cold front that is expected to
arrive on Sunday. Given that temperatures could be on either side of
freezing (depending on the time of day) there could be a mix of rain
and snow. Precipitation chances will likely remain through the
weekend as multiple rounds could work through the region from the
south along the front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 546 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period. Light winds
and clear skies expected initially, but warm advection pattern aloft
will bring in a mid-level ceiling after midnight tonight. Longwave
upper trof pushing into the region Tue morning will mainly bring a
lowering of cloud bases, but cigs will remain solidly VFR.
Confidence in cloud cover is limited, as this forecast leans toward
the pessimistic end. As the lapse rates steepen, look for winds to
pick up out of the west with gusts near 20 kt in the afternoon.
Can't rule out a few snow showers especially at LEX and RGA, but
probabilities are quite low and impacts will be limited if it does
happen. Most likely scenario seems to be virga given the low-level
dry air.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ Tuesday to 10
AM EST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday for KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ Tuesday to 10
AM EST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday for INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 5:46 PM EST---------------
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