CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 11:10 PM EST093
FXUS61 KCLE 210410
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1110 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds through the Ohio Valley tonight. A re-
enforcing cold front crosses from west to east on Tuesday. High
pressure builds back in Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
1100 PM EST Update...
The band of lake effect snow over Lake Erie has shifted south a
bit more than expected which has allowed moderate snow to move
onshore. High res guidance doesn't have the wind shifting much
through the overnight so several inches of snow accumulation is
possible in northern Erie County, PA, primarily from roughly
Presque Isle State Park to North East. Moderate to periodically
heavy snowfall in addition to blowing/drifting snow will result
in slick travel and reduced visibilities. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued through 7AM/12Z, but can't rule out
needing to extend the advisory if the band is slow to shift
north Tuesday morning. There may be some light snow
accumulations from northeastern Lake County into northern
Ashtabula County, but expect impacts to be limited.
915 PM EST Update...
Overall, the forecast remains on track and no major changes
were needed with this update. Temperatures across most of the
area are in the single digits and a few spots are approaching
zero degrees. The band of lake effect snow that is impacting
western NY will generally stay offshore tonight, but can't rule
out light snow periodically grazing northern Lake, Ashtabula,
and Erie (PA) counties.
Previous Discussion...
Lake effect snow has just about lifted offshore of Erie County,
PA and should be able to let the Winter Weather Advisory expire
at 4 PM. This snow band will sit just offshore tonight into
early Tuesday and could graze the Erie County shoreline at
times. Otherwise, we should be done with LES for the time being.
High pressure and the cold, dry arctic airmass will lead to a
cold but quiet and clear evening and night. Interestingly
enough, some cumulus have developed this afternoon but will
quickly dissipate with sunset. Lows tonight are still expected
to generally fall to a -5 to 5 above range. It likely will be
hard for winds to decouple tonight, though a narrow surface
ridge axis will extend out of the Ohio Valley and towards
central and east-central Ohio. With at least some fresh snow in
that area, it's possible some lower-lying areas decouple and see
temperatures tank locally more than expected. Wind chills will
generally bottom out in the -14 to -22 range tonight, which is
solidly within the "advisory" realm.
A shortwave and surface cold front will move across the region
from west to east on Tuesday, bringing a modest increase in
synoptic moisture and some lift to the region. Some mid-level
clouds should spread in late tonight into Tuesday morning as
PVA/height falls ahead of the shortwave and modest low to mid-
level warm air advection/isentropic lift arrive. Some very light
snow could break out ahead of the cold front Tuesday due to the
isentropic lift. The more interesting feature will be the cold
front itself. Decent low-level convergence, along with
sufficient low-level moisture and steep low-level lapse rates,
will yield potential for snow showers along and just ahead of
the front. This forecaster was a bit amused to see forecast
soundings depicting just a little bit of CAPE ahead of the front
on Tuesday in such a cold airmass. In response, hit most of the
area with chance (30-50%) POPs for a rather brief window from
west to east on Tuesday. Have lower POPs (10-20%) in the Toledo
area and actually increase to likely (60-70%) from our eastern
couple tiers of Ohio counties into Northwest PA. Snow amounts
will generally be less than 0.5" west of I-77, with locally up
to an inch possible farther east. There could be a brief period
of travel annoyances on Tuesday with any snow. While amounts are
light, it will be quite cold and any measurable snow will stick
to roads. Also, there could be a convective component along the
front, leading to brief intensity with some snow showers. Given
the cold and dry arctic airmass, most or all of the clouds and
snow growth will take place above the preferred dendritic growth
zone on Tuesday. This will likely mean smaller flakes which
won't have an exceptionally high snow to liquid ratio, but could
effectively reduce visibility. Highs on Tuesday will generally
warm to a 5 to 12 degree range, with a bit of a non-diurnal
trend possible in Northwest OH with cold air advection kicking
in during the afternoon behind the frontal passage. Wind chills
recover a few degrees Tuesday afternoon, though will struggle to
warm above -5 to -15.
The front exits east Tuesday night with high pressure building
quickly out of the Ohio Valley, leading to a dry and mainly
clear night. Lake effect will try to briefly come back onshore
into Erie County, PA right behind the front before lifting back
over the lake. Don't want to entirely rule out a quick inch or
so of "dusty" snow if that happens. Otherwise, the big story
will be the cold. Clearing skies, rather fresh snow pack across
the eastern two-thirds of our area, a "refreshed" cold airmass
right behind the front, and slackening pressure gradient will
set the stage for surface temperatures to plummet Tuesday night.
Have air temperatures falling to -5 to -15 in general, slightly
warmer near the eastern lakeshore. Lighter winds will work
against extremely cold wind chills, though it may be hard for
winds to go completely calm. Wind chills will bottom out -20 to 25
across most of the area, and still can't rule out a potential
need to eventually upgrade parts of the area to an Extreme Cold
Warning (criteria is -25F). With dew points expected to drop to
the -15 to -20 range, room is there for low-lying and less-
urban areas to drop to near or below -20 degrees if they're able
to decouple. Hard to get this in the forecast grids, though did
lower temperatures from the prior forecast a bit, especially in
lower-lying areas where we have relatively lighter winds in the
forecast. Infrastructure issues caused by the cold will peak
Tuesday night-early Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Slowly will be coming out of the coldest air of the season for the
area, with teens Wednesday and a significant jump Thursday back into
the 20s with some brief low level warm air advection. 850mb
temperatures climb into the -10C range Wednesday as the Canadian
high pressure system that brought the cold airmass shifts east of
the CWA and a clipper system tracks into the northern Great Lakes.
Expecting a cold front shortly thereafter from the surface low over
the northern lakes on Thursday bringing a few snow showers with it
along with a weak reinforcement to the chilly air that has plagued
the region for the month of January. The pattern is very progressive
with that cold front off to the east very quickly and high pressure
back into play for Thursday night. Some questions in the forecast at
this point with the potential for lake effect behind the cold front.
Favorable lake effect snow wind directions are not a slam dunk and
might be a little more variable during the Thursday night period, so
only carrying low POPs/snow amounts at this time, but will be
something to watch going forward.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern aloft becomes more zonal, which will allow temperatures to
push towards the freezing mark heading into the weekend as more
moderate air that has been pinned well to the south is allowed to
creep back northward. No major systems on the horizon, but could see
a couple weak troughs aloft push through in the long term period,
largely benign. Still going to be largely below normal for
temperatures as we head into the last week of January.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR with some mid-level clouds will persist through tonight with
ceilings lowering to low-end VFR or MVFR as a cold front moves
east across the area Tuesday. A band of lake effect snow should
remain to the north of KERI through tonight, but can't rule out
light snow periodically clipping the terminal. Snow showers
associated with the cold front should generally remain east of a
line from KTOL/KFDY and will be relatively fast-moving. A brief
period of IFR visibilities is possible at eastern terminals,
but confidence in snow coverage is too low to include prevailing
sub-MVFR conditions. Opted for PROB30 for reduced visibilities
for the time being. Ceilings should improve relatively quickly
once precipitation ends.
Winds will be out of the southwest around 6 to 12 knots tonight
with winds becoming more westerly and increasing to 10 to 15
knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots Tuesday afternoon.
Outlook...Mainly VFR expected Tuesday night through early
Thursday. Non-VFR possible in scattered snow showers Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Freezing Spray in the open waters east of Avon Point continues to be
a potential hazard through Tuesday night with southwest wind gusts
reaching 25-35kts. The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in
effect during this period. As the lake becomes less turbulent
through mid week and into the end of the week, continued ice
coverage is favorable with the coldest airmass of the season
currently in place. Mainly iced over from Vermilion west, although
lots of ice shifting still taking place with wind direction changes.
Winds do not come down below 15kts until Thursday.
Small Craft Advisory issuance has been suspended until further
notice for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley due to
extensive ice cover.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Arctic air persists through Wednesday. The coldest temperatures
are expected late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning
with forecast temperatures approaching record lows for 1/22.
Below are the current record low temperatures for 1/21-22.
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
01-21 -20(1984) -19(1985) -17(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -16(1985)
01-22 -12(1936) -10(1936) -10(1936) -13(1936) -9(2022) -7(1970)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ001>003.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for
LEZ166>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Maines/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...26
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 11:10 PM EST---------------
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