LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 18, 3:55 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...277
FXUS64 KLIX 182155
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
355 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Light rain showers and a couple embedded thunderstorms remain
across the area, mainly along the coast up to the lake. These will
hang around through the afternoon and possibly into the early
evening before they taper off. Our first frontal boundary should
push completely through the area sometime this evening with the
arctic front likely making its way in late tonight through Sunday
morning.
If you stepped outside today you likely felt the unseasonably warm
temperatures, as afternoon highs today reached the low to mid 70s.
We will see a drastic change in the temperature over the next
several hours with overnight lows already dropping into the 30s
for northern areas and the low to mid 40s for southern areas.
Sunday high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s for a
good portion of the area. Sunday night will be our first bitterly
cold night, with lows into the teens for far northern areas. Most
of the northshore sits in the low to mid 20s while the southshore
reaches the upper 20s. This brings pipe concerns, so consider
doing what you can to cover those. Wind chill values fall into the
teens for the majority of the area and even could dip into the
single digits for far northern areas. With all of this, a Cold
Weather Advisory is in effect from 6pm Sunday through 9am Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
We'll continue to touch on the cold before getting into the
precipitation. A Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect for
Monday night into Tuesday for similar conditions to Sunday night.
Lows will dip into the low to mid 20s for northern areas and the
upper 20s to low 30s for southern areas. This gives wind chill
values into the teens for the majority of the area. Tuesday's high
temperatures may not even reach up above freezing for some areas,
while others only reach the low to mid 30s at best. Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning looks to be the coldest of the week with
northern areas dropping into the teens and southern areas not
getting above 25 for most. This will cause many northern areas to
reach wind chills in the single digits. Cold Weather Advisories
are likely to continue through mid week, with Extreme Cold
Warnings not out of the question.
Now getting into the precipitation side of things. Snow
probabilities have once again come up since yesterday, though
we've seen some fluctuation throughout the day today. Currently,
snow totals look to be in the 3 to 6 range for areas along and
north of the I-10 and I-12 corridor, with totals around 1 to 3 for
areas south of this corridor. Given the confidence after having
good model consistency over the last 24 to 36 hours a Winter Storm
Watch has been issued for the entire area outside of areas right
along the LA coast. Areas along and south of the lake also have a
low chance of seeing minor ice accumulations. This will really
just depend on how far north the Gulf low makes it. This is
something to watch closely as even minor ice accumulations can
cause extreme impacts. Regardless of what precipitation falls,
travel will be hazardous and everyone should consider delaying
travel unless absolutely necessary.
It is worth noting that we will be very cold far enough in advance
of the precipitation to allow it to stick to the ground
immediately. We should see any precipitation melt towards the end
of the week, but it could take until as late as Thursday for all
of it to melt given some shaded areas may not warm enough on
Wednesday. Thursday is when we should really see conditions start
to improve as highs reach the mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
MVFR ceilings remain for some areas this morning, but we will see
the return of VFR countdowns by this afternoon and evening. Some
MVFR ceilings may return later into this evening, but these
shouldn't hang around too long and VFR would likely return by
morning. SHRA continue for many southern terminals and chances for
additional SHRA for all terminals this afternoon, but these will
be very light.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Winds have eased throughout the day today, but won't remain that
way for long as they turn towards the north and pick back up
following our front. Small Craft conditions return by midnight,
with winds up to 20 to 25kts and gusts up to 30kts. The current
Small Craft will likely end up being extended as winds don't
really come down at all through early week. Will also need to look
at potentially going with a Gale as conditions ramp up even more on
Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 33 42 19 37 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 39 47 24 42 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 40 48 23 42 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 42 48 28 40 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 41 48 24 40 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 42 52 23 43 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-
076>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 18, 3:55 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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