MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 11:30 AM CST ...New AVIATION...796
FXUS64 KMOB 141730
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1130 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
VFR conditions remain through noon Wednesday. North to northeast
winds at 5 to 10 knots diminish to around 5 knots or less
overnight. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
An elongated upper trof stretching from the northeastern states to
the 4 Corners region evolves into a meridionally oriented upper
trof over the eastern states. While a ridge of surface high
pressure generally remains over the region through the period,
some modest moisture return with the amplifying upper trof could
allow for a few patches of rain to occur Wednesday night mainly
near the Alabama coast. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected.
Highs today will be mostly in the mid 50s, then highs on Wednesday
will be in the mid to upper 50s. Lows tonight range from the
lower 30s well inland to the upper 30s at the coast, then
Wednesday night will have similar temperatures except for a tad
warmer near the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents today will
be followed by a low risk through Wednesday night. /29
SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
An upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast moves off, with
more shortwave energy moving through a weak upper ridge centered
over the Mississippi River. Between the shortwave systems, surface
high pressure passes over the forecast area, bringing southerly
low level flow to the Lower Mississippi River Valley, then
Southeast Thursday night into Friday. Isentropic upglide
rainshowers spread east over the forecast area beginning late
Friday ahead of a surface low forecast to move over the forecast
area late Saturday into Saturday night. Northwest to northerly
flow returns to the forecast area by Sunday morning, and the
precipitation shifts south of the coast Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. A significantly colder airmass moves over the
Southeast with the return of the offshore flow and temperatures
well below seasonal norms move back over the forecast area.
A surface boundary forms south of the coast ahead of the advancing
surface low. Guidance is advertising any significant instability
remaining well south of the coast, except for a bit of elevated
instability over southern portions of the forecast area. Even with
limited instability, guidance is advertising a 50-60kt 850mb jet
moving over the forecast area later Friday night into Saturday
morning, with an upper level jet bringing modest upper divergence
in the same time period. If the surface boundary does work its way
north, strong to marginally severe storms are a possibility over
southern portions of the forecast area. The upper support may
enhance the upglide rainshowers and bring embedded thunderstorms,
with water issues a possibility. Will continue to monitor.
With the upper ridge, modest as it is, and a return of southerly
flow to the forecast area, temperatures rise to above seasonal
norms. High temperatures around 60 Thursday rise into the mid to
upper 60s Saturday. As colder air moves in, temperatures drop to
well below seasonal norms, with upper 30s to mid 40s expected by
Monday. Low temperatures see the same upper and down pattern, with
30s expected Thursday night rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s
Friday night. From there, the colder airmass moving over the
forecast area will bring a return of mid to upper 20s along and
north of Highway 84 with low to mid 35s south Sunday night. Even
colder temperatures are indicated for Monday night. Cold Weather
Advisories are likely the end of the forecast.
With onshore flow returning Friday and increasing into the
weekend, a Low risk of rip currents mid week becomes High late
Friday into the weekend. /16
MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Moderate to strong northeasterly winds gradually diminish through
Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Mobile
Bay, the Mississippi Sound and Pensacola Bay until 9 am, and for
the open Gulf waters until noon as the offshore flow gradually
subsides. A light to moderate easterly flow develops Thursday
night then turns southerly and increases Friday into Friday night.
Another Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for Friday
night into Saturday. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 36 57 39 60 36 63 54 67 / 0 0 10 10 10 20 70 70
Pensacola 39 58 43 60 40 64 57 67 / 0 0 20 10 10 20 60 80
Destin 42 59 44 62 43 65 58 70 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 60 80
Evergreen 33 57 32 61 31 63 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 70 70
Waynesboro 33 56 32 60 31 62 50 68 / 0 0 0 10 0 20 80 50
Camden 32 55 30 59 31 61 49 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 80 60
Crestview 33 58 35 61 33 64 50 70 / 0 0 10 10 0 10 60 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 11:30 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
