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419 FXUS64 KMOB 140929AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL329 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday night)Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025An elongated upper trof stretching from the northeastern states to the 4 Corners region evolves into a meridionally oriented upper trof over the eastern states. While a ridge of surface high pressure generally remains over the region through the period, some modest moisture return with the amplifying upper trof could allow for a few patches of rain to occur Wednesday night mainly near the Alabama coast. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected. Highs today will be mostly in the mid 50s, then highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 50s. Lows tonight range from the lower 30s well inland to the upper 30s at the coast, then Wednesday night will have similar temperatures except for a tad warmer near the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents today will be followed by a low risk through Wednesday night. /29.SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS...(Thursday through Monday)Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025An upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast moves off, with more shortwave energy moving through a weak upper ridge centered over the Mississippi River. Between the shortwave systems, surface high pressure passes over the forecast area, bringing southerly low level flow to the Lower Mississippi River Valley, then Southeast Thursday night into Friday. Isentropic upglide rainshowers spread east over the forecast area beginning late Friday ahead of a surface low forecast to move over the forecast area late Saturday into Saturday night. Northwest to northerly flow returns to the forecast area by Sunday morning, and the precipitation shifts south of the coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A significantly colder airmass moves over the Southeast with the return of the offshore flow and temperatures well below seasonal norms move back over the forecast area.A surface boundary forms south of the coast ahead of the advancing surface low. Guidance is advertising any significant instability remaining well south of the coast, except for a bit of elevated instability over southern portions of the forecast area. Even with limited instability, guidance is advertising a 50-60kt 850mb jet moving over the forecast area later Friday night into Saturday morning, with an upper level jet bringing modest upper divergence in the same time period. If the surface boundary does work its way north, strong to marginally severe storms are a possibility over southern portions of the forecast area. The upper support may enhance the upglide rainshowers and bring embedded thunderstorms, with water issues a possibility. Will continue to monitor. With the upper ridge, modest as it is, and a return of southerly flow to the forecast area, temperatures rise to above seasonal norms. High temperatures around 60 Thursday rise into the mid to upper 60s Saturday. As colder air moves in, temperatures drop to well below seasonal norms, with upper 30s to mid 40s expected by Monday. Low temperatures see the same upper and down pattern, with 30s expected Thursday night rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s Friday night. From there, the colder airmass moving over the forecast area will bring a return of mid to upper 20s along and north of Highway 84 with low to mid 35s south Sunday night. Even colder temperatures are indicated for Monday night. Cold Weather Advisories are likely the end of the forecast. With onshore flow returning Friday and increasing into the weekend, a Low risk of rip currents mid week becomes High late Friday into the weekend./16&&.MARINE...Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025Moderate to strong northeasterly winds gradually diminish through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound and Pensacola Bay until 9 am, and for the open Gulf waters until noon as the offshore flow gradually subsides. A light to moderate easterly flow develops Thursday night then turns southerly and increases Friday into Friday night. Another Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for Friday night into Saturday. /29&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 57 36 57 39 60 36 63 54 / 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 70 Pensacola 57 39 58 43 60 40 64 57 / 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 60 Destin 58 42 59 44 62 43 65 58 / 0 10 0 10 10 10 10 60 Evergreen 57 33 57 32 61 31 63 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 70 Waynesboro 55 33 56 32 60 31 62 50 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 20 80 Camden 54 32 55 30 59 31 61 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 80 Crestview 58 33 58 35 61 33 64 50 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 10 60 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ650-655-670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
