LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 10, 11:42 AM CST ...New AVIATION...219
FXUS64 KLIX 101742
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1142 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025
A surface low continues to deepen just west of our region closer
to the upper Texas coast early this morning. This low has caused
winds, at least for now off shore to increase to around 40kts or
more at times. Locally, pressure gradient is tightening with the
low getting closer and expect some locations near the coast and on
the southshore to get some gusts close to wind advisory criteria.
Therefore, the wind advisory continues respectively. Think the
Florida Parishes and inland south MS will be just shy of making
the criteria, but it will be gusty.
Taking a look at the radar, widespread showers are moving north
and east into the western tier of the forecast area this morning.
As low level moisture continues to increase (it really needs to
increase soon looking at the 00z LIX RAOB...and it will), the rain
shield will continue move toward our region and perhaps expand a
bit through the morning. Rainfall may at times be heavy,
especially where the best low level convergence and/or upper
support develops/resides...at this juncture this appears to be
over SW MS and the Florida Parishes. But given the ample moisture,
urbanized locations in New Orleans and Baton Rouge may experience
localized flooding at times.
Later this afternoon the western tier begin to find themselves
within the dry slot that develops...then pushes eastward at a
decent clip. In fact, the shield of rainfall looks to exit most of
the CWFA by mid evening as the dry slot punches north and
eastward. This could overall limit the precip numbers as a whole.
The low pressure should track east and east-northeast through late
Friday and end up along the Carolina coast late Friday night. As
it moves downstream, a surface cold front will move through
allowing for northerly winds and CAA to develop on the backside.
Behind the front Saturday morning, temperatures do tumble,
however, most locations look to stay above freeze outside of
southwest MS. For now, wind chill values are running about 5
degrees higher than cold weather adv criteria, so at this point
not expecting those products. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025
Overall, the main story to start and going through much of the
long term will be the below average temperatures both for
overnight lows and daily high temperatures. Going into Saturday
night and Sunday, surface high pressure will be over Cumberland
Plateau stretching southward all the way to the northern Gulf
Coast. This feature does move east allowing for a surface return
flow to begin by Sunday afternoon. At the same time another upper
level trough digs across Texas allowing for another trough or
closed Gulf low to form east of the mouth of the Rio Grande.
Among the globals, ECM and GEM are a bit more bullish with this
feature than the GFS. With the mostly zonal upper level flow over
our region, this feature should move generally east over the Gulf
or just south of our region, but some isentropic showers will be
possible, especially along the coastal areas Sunday and into early
Monday. Don't expect too much given the lack of modification from
the cooler and drier regime that sets up shop behind the system
in the short term period, so not expecting heavy precip.
Going beyond the weak system in the Gulf, zonal flow should
continue across the region. Toward the end of the week there could
be just enough warming that we climb back into the average range
out ahead of the next cold frontal boundary the globals are
suggesting to be due into the region late next weekend...or well
beyond the scope of this package. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025
IFR to LIFR conditions are expected for most of this forecast
period primarily due to very low ceilings and minor impacts to
visibility. In addition, light to moderate rain continues for
most of the area. This will slide eastward with westward terminals
clearing out in the next 1-2 hours and east terminals will be
later this afternoon. Conditions will improve to out of LIFR later
today but ceilings will still be very low. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025
Gale warnings have been issued for all local waters at least
through midday as a Gulf Low moves across the region bringing
wind gusts from 35 to around 40 knots at times, especially across
the outer waters beyond 20nm. As the surface low spreads east and
east-northeast, onshore flow will quickly evolve to a more
offshore flow as winds shift to a northerly direction. Hazardous
marine conditions will remain possible late Friday and into early
Saturday before some improvement takes place. We will also need to
watch the start of the next workweek as another Gulf low may try
to develop increasing winds to hazardous or cautionary thresholds
during this time as well. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 31 47 29 55 / 0 0 0 20
BTR 35 52 34 59 / 0 0 0 30
ASD 34 50 33 59 / 10 0 0 20
MSY 37 49 38 59 / 10 0 0 30
GPT 34 49 33 57 / 10 0 0 20
PQL 34 52 32 60 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ058>060-064>070-
076>078-080-082-087>090.
GM...Gale Warning until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536-538.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538.
Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ550-552-570-
572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Saturday for GMZ550-552-570-572.
Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ555-557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
for GMZ555-557-575-577.
MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ086>088.
GM...Gale Warning until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
538.
Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ552-570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Saturday for GMZ552-570-572.
Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
for GMZ557-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 10, 11:42 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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