IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 6:24 PM EST042
FXUS63 KIWX 142324
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
624 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake effect snow showers will create reduced visibilities and
slippery travel for areas near Lake MI into the evening.
- Wind chills drop to near 10 degrees below zero tonight into
Wednesday morning.
- A round of light snow (60%) may create slippery travel Thursday
morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Transition to lake enhanced/effect snow showers and blowing snow
taking place this afternoon behind an arctic cold that should clear
our southeast zones by ~21z. Additional accums will be light, but
gusty nw winds and reduced visibilities with heavier snow showers
will continue to create travel headaches for the PM commute. Dry
arctic air with upstream obs in the single digits below zero will
limit inversion heights and LES coverage/intensity then into tonight
with minor additional accums/impacts near Lake MI. Cold air wraps in
under the lake plume otherwise tonight and Wed AM with wind chills
as cold as -10F.
The next quick moving clipper system drops southeast through the
Great Lakes late Wed night into Thursday morning. The associated WAA
surge under favorable left exit upper jet dynamics should support a
round of light snow during this time which could impact the Thu AM
commute. Brief ridging then follows in aloft in wake of this system,
with Friday milder with above freezing highs.
A shortwave ejects northeast from the Four Corners Friday night into
Saturday, while northern stream energy starts to work into the north-
central US. This will send a frontal wave through during this time
with rain and snow chances, though details (QPF/ptype) are lacking
at this forecast range given differences in the degree of phasing.
Renewed deep longwave troughing looks to return late this weekend
into next week with the next shot of arctic air. This will likely be
the coldest air of the season given increasing ensemble support for -
25C or colder 850 mb air wrapping in Monday-Tuesday with headline
worthy cold anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Multicell lake effect snow band is currently impacting KSBN.
Very dry/stable airmass upstream is limiting snowfall rates but
small flake size will likely contribute to visibilities of
1-3SM through 03Z. Lake effect snow will then gradually taper
off as winds back and high pressure settles in the region. VFR
expected by 06Z at the latest and continuing through Wed
evening.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 6:24 PM EST---------------
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