JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 4:46 PM EST950
FXUS63 KJKL 142146
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
446 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow showers may bring localized accumulations of less than an
inch this evening. Light accumulating snow is also possible late
in the weekend.
- Aside from near normal temperatures Friday and Saturday, below
normal readings are expected for the next week. Apparent
temperatures could fall to near zero for a few locations
tonight-- primarily north of the Mountain Parkway. Apparent
temperatures are also forecast near or below zero for much of
the area on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 446 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
A cold front is entering the forecast area from the northwest late
this afternoon. Associated moisture is very limited and shallow--
generally below 8K ft. However, the top of the moist layer is
extending to temperatures colder than -10C at times, enabling ice
production. Forecast soundings suggest the most favorable
conditions for snow showers will shift southeast across all but
the far southwest part of the forecast area between 22Z and 06Z.
Have used a 20 percent POP for measurable precip, with flurries
being the more likely outcome for most places. Decreasing clouds
are expected to arrive from the northwest overnight. Although
gusty winds will accompany the cold fropa (with some potential
for blowing/drifting snow over open terrain), the winds will
slacken during the night. That sets up a question for low
temperatures. The cold air advection would normally not be
favorable for decoupling from the flow. However, with winds dying
down and snow on the ground for much of the area, there is concern
that some valleys may decouple overnight, which would send low
temperatures near or below zero in snow covered valleys. Aside
from decoupling, upper single digits and teens could be expected.
Have compromised and went with the coldest locations in northern
valleys near zero, but confidence is not high.
Surface high pressure passing through beneath benign west to
northwest flow aloft will result in ample sunshine on Wednesday.
Even so, temperatures in the cold air mass will probably remain
below freezing for all but a few places near the TN border.
On Wednesday night, warm air advection will return to our area in
a very large flow regime around a deep low crossing Hudson Bay.
This will eventually bring an increase in clouds and an increase
in low level flow during the night. Before that happens,
temperatures will probably fall of steeply in the evening. Where
they settle before beginning to rebound in the night will
determine our lows, and once again, confidence is not high.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
The flow pattern aloft to begin the extended will feature general
troughiness in place across the eastern third of the country on
Thursday. The GFS and NBM solutions both have a small clipper system
moving quickly through the region Thursday and Thursday night, with
the system producing isolated to scattered snow showers across
eastern Kentucky. Little if any snow accumulation is expected from
this system. Once the clipper moves off to our east late Thursday
night, a ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface, will move
into behind it to end the week. Flow associated with this ridge will
bring a brief period of much warmer temperatures to the area heading
into the weekend. In fact, we could see highs reaching the 40s
Friday and Saturday. However, another strong area of low pressure
will be right on the heels of the ridge, and will bring cloud skies
and widespread rain to eastern Kentucky by as early as late Friday
evening. The rain will spread across the entire area late Friday
night and Saturday. Some snow may mix with the rain along the
highest terrain along the Virginia border Friday night and early
Saturday morning. We should see a quick transition from rain to
rain/snow mix Saturday night. The mix should finally change over to
all snow very Saturday night and early Sunday morning, as colder air
spills into the area behind the departing upper trough. Scattered to
numerous snow showers will be possible on Sunday, with light
accumulations possible. The primary push of this colder air mass
will take place Sunday night, with lows ranging from the high single
digits along I-64, and the lower to mid-teens south of there.
After seeing highs in the 40s on Saturday, daytime maxes will
steadily decrease Sunday through Monday, with highs on each of those
days only reaching the upper 20s to lower 30s Saturday and the upper
teens to lower 20s Monday and Tuesday. The latest NBM data suggests
that persistent moist northwesterly flow will set up over the area
Sunday through Tuesday, and will bring periods of scattered snow
showers to eastern Kentucky. Should this part of the forecast
verify, we could see another bout of accumulating snow heading into
the first of next week. For now, however, due to model uncertainty
we will take this all with a grain of salt for now. Weather hazards
in the extended will include the possibility of very cold
temperatures and low wind chills Sunday night and Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR conditions persisted at the start of the period. A cold front
and an area of lowering clouds associated with it was moving
toward the area from the northwest. An initial ceiling of 3.5-7K
ft AGL should arrive and then drop to MVFR for a time this
evening. A few snow showers are also expected, mainly northeast of
a line from McKee to Harlan. The snow and most of the clouds
should dry up overnight, with the last of the MVFR ceilings
breaking up in southeast KY by around dawn. That will leave VFR
conditions to finish the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 4:46 PM EST---------------
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