MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 9, 11:33 PM CST ...New AVIATION...652
FXUS64 KMOB 100533
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1133 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
A potent upper level disturbance, combined with a surface low
moving along the northern Gulf Coast will bring IFR to MVFR
conditions for much of the forecast cycle. Low clouds will impact
the terminals beginning around 09Z, with conditions deteriorating
through the day. Cigs will lower to around 800 feet this
afternoon, with IFR conditions expected to persist through the
remainder of the period. Winds will increase later this morning,
with breezy conditions expected. Southerly winds will gust up to
30-35 kts between 14Z and 20Z. Low level wind shear increase
during this time, with wind shear through 2kft in the 40 to 50 kt
range. Winds will shift more to the southwest and west this
afternoon and evening, with gusts up to 25 kts expected to through
the evening hours. In addition to the lower clouds and winds,
light to moderate rain will approach the terminals later this
morning, continuing through the afternoon and into the early
evening hours. /73
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025/
.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
Upper-level troughing extending into the southwest US will begin
to push eastwards during the period. As it does so, strong
diffluence aloft will overspread much of the Southeast US. At the
surface, a low pressure system has developed over the western
Gulf, and is expected to quickly lift to the northeast throughout
the day on Friday. After lifting across our coastal counties
throughout the afternoon hours, it will help to send a cold front
through the area Friday evening, with a cooler/drier airmass
building in behind it. Plenty of moisture and forcing will allow
for precip chances to increase tonight and especially through the
day on Friday. With no instability in place, expecting this event
be a stratiform precip shield as opposed to convection.
In terms of precipitation type, forecast soundings in the dendritic
growth zone should begin to saturate at around the 00Z-03Z timeframe
tonight, while the surface to 700mb layer remains rather dry. With
how dry this layer is, we initially may start off with some virga
across portions of the area. After 03Z, the better forcing and
moisture begins moving into the area from the southwest and precip
chances begin to increase. At the same time, as the surface low
starts to approach the area, a low-level jet will begin to develop
and move into the area. This will support a warm air advection
regime, especially in the 850 to 700 mb layer. The result will be
the development of a roughly 100-150 mb deep warm layer that peaks
at around 4-6C. Looking below this layer, the ongoing virga will
help to saturate the dry layer, allowing for temps and dew points to
approach the wet bulb temperature. For most locations, the warm air
advection will allow for the wet bulb temperature to increase to
above freezing, resulting in a cold rain across much of the area.
However, looking at forecast soundings for our northern counties
(primarily north of Highway 84), a sub-freezing wet-bulb profile may
still exist somewhere above the surface and below the 850 mb level.
This could allow for some hydrometeors to re-freeze as the precip
shield initially moves over this area. Surface temperatures
tonight are expected to hover around 32-35 degrees in this area,
limiting any freezing rain potential. Therefore, although we still
expect rain to remain the primary precip type, there remains a
small chance that areas north of Highway 84 may see a few
instances of sleet mixed in. Any sleet that does occur should not
accumulate. As the LLJ (and thus WAA) increases, any remnant sub-
freezing layer should begin to erode and all precip will
transition to a steady, cold rain for the remainder of the day.
This will likely occur by or before daybreak. Rain will continue
through the day and PoPs will steadily decrease by the evening
hours. We dry out for Saturday as high pressure builds in.
The other main story will be coastal impacts from this system. As
the low (and associated LLJ) develops and moves across our coastal
counties, winds are expected to quickly increase late tonight and
into tomorrow. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 6am through 6PM
for the coastal interface for sustained winds up to around 20-30mph
and gusts to around 40mph. It should be noted that a stronger low
could result in higher winds along the coast and a possible
expansion of the Wind Advisory a little further inland.
Additionally, with Gale conditions expected over the marine, surf
conditions will quickly deteriorate during the day on Friday. A High
Surf Warning for large breaking waves of 7 to 9 feet is in place
from 6am Friday through 6am Saturday. Highest surf heights look to
occur during Friday afternoon with a slow decrease through Friday
night. A High Risk of rip currents will also be in place through
Saturday. /96
LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
Cool and dry conditions will return for the extended period as
dry northwesterly flow develops over the area. The only chance for
rain will come early in the period on Sunday night into Monday as
a subtle shortwave moves in across the area. By Saturday night
into Sunday, the surface cold front will be pushed offshore likely
hanging up just off our coast. This boundary will be the focus
for rain early in the period as a secondary shortwave moves across
the Great Lakes. Rain will move in late Sunday night mainly
across the Gulf waters but some light overrunning precip may occur
mainly along and south of I-10. By Monday, the upper shortwave
will push east driving the surface front further into the Gulf and
ushering in another round of cool and dry air. High pressure will
build over the central US in response to the departing upper
trough. Temperatures will be the big thing with the extended
forecast. Temperatures by the end of the week drop into upper 20
to low 30s once again for lows and highs in the 50s. Some cold
weather products may be needed later in the week as wind chills
will likely drop into the 20s and teens once again. BB/03
MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
Light to moderate northeasterly winds become a strong
southeasterly flow tonight as a storm system passes along the Gulf
Coast. Gale force conditions are expected across all marine zones on
Friday. Winds switch to a westerly flow on Friday as it lifts away
from the region. A strong northwesterly flow follows for Friday
night, subsiding to a light to moderate offshore flow by Saturday
night. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 40 60 34 48 31 56 40 59 / 40 100 20 0 0 10 20 10
Pensacola 43 65 38 48 35 55 44 60 / 10 100 40 0 0 10 40 20
Destin 44 64 39 49 38 56 46 62 / 10 90 70 0 0 10 40 20
Evergreen 34 54 34 45 26 56 34 58 / 40 100 30 0 0 10 10 10
Waynesboro 34 44 31 45 24 56 34 54 / 80 100 0 0 0 10 10 10
Camden 32 46 31 43 24 54 32 53 / 80 100 20 0 0 10 10 10
Crestview 34 63 36 46 28 55 36 60 / 20 100 60 0 0 10 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Friday through Saturday
afternoon for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for
ALZ265-266.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Friday through Saturday
afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
High Surf Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for
FLZ202-204-206.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for GMZ630>636-650-655-
670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for
GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 9, 11:33 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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