PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 2:58 PM CST171
FXUS63 KPAH 122058
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
258 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A blast of arctic cold air is coming with a cold front's
passage tonight. Its main impact will be the cold, as it will
keep temperatures largely below the freezing mark until
Thursday. The coldest wind chills will be around zero in our
north at daybreak both Tuesday and Wednesday.
- A dusting of snowfall is possible Tuesday as another arctic
cold front makes passage. It will offer another reinforcing
shot of cold air that will last until the transition to above
freezing temperatures occurs Thursday, heralding a move closer
to seasonal temperatures as we head into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025
Temperatures are warming up nicely this afternoon with readings
currently in the upper 30's to mid 40's. A cold front is just
off to the west currently and is forecast to move through the
region over the next several hours. Winds will veer toward the
northwest behind the front advecting in much colder air for
tonight. Lows will drop into the mid teens to lower 20's.
The CONUS will remain locked in cyclonic flow as deep troughing
orients from SW to NE through the middle of the country. High
pressure will become established at the surface early this week
favoring mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. A
weak disturbance is progged to drop into the Ohio Valley Tuesday
and may bring light snow to northern and eastern parts of the
region. While QPF amounts look low, SLR's should be fairly high
and may result in a dusting of snow. The cold will likely be the
bigger story with lows Monday night in the teens, and teens to
single digits Tuesday night.
Upper level troughing moves east late in the week with surface
flow becoming more southerly. Temperatures will be on the rise
with highs in the 40's to near 50 degrees Thursday and Friday.
An upper level disturbance is advertised to move in from the
west into next weekend but confidence on the details is still
low. Chances of rain return to the forecast by Friday and appear
to linger into Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025
Uncertainty regarding MVFR or lower cigs is the main aviation
concern for this TAF set. High clouds will stream through the
region this afternoon. Some guidance sources suggests MVFR cigs
will move in from the northwest overnight. Time-heights and
soundings would suggest otherwise though. The forecast does
bring MVFR cigs to the terminals after 00z tonight with gradual
recovery expected after sunrise. Winds from the southwest 5-10
kts this afternoon will become light tonight behind a cold
front.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 2:58 PM CST---------------
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