WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jun 3, 7:53 PM CDT734
AGUS74 KWCO 040100
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #139 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
753 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024
WHAT...Flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE...Northeast Texas, southern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas,
northern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi
WHEN...Through the overnight hours
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF...1 - 3", locally higher (HRRR)
Rainfall Rates...1 - 3"/hr (HRRR)
Soil Conditions...70 - 80+% (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows...Normal to much above normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Heavy rainfall will bring the potential of flooding to these areas
through the overnight hours. Given recent rainfall, antecedent
conditions are favorable for flooding impacts, as near surface soil
moisture values suggest limited infiltration capacity for runoff. The
forecast intense rainfall rates will overwhelm remaining capacity and
immediately runoff into nearby streams and flooding of urban areas.
The National Water Model (NWM) Short Range Forecast (SRF) indicates
rapid-onset flooding (ROF) probabilities between 25 - 75% with
isolated probabilities greater than 75%. Associated annual exceedance
probabilities (AEPs) are generally near 50% with isolated values
between 20 - 2% in portions of eastern TX, supporting small stream
responses and potential for out of bank rises. Given these signals
and higher rain rates, some locally significant flooding impacts will
be possible.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//TMK
ATTN...WFO...FWD...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV...TSA...OUN...LZK
ATTN...RFC...TUA...ORN...FWR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jun 3, 7:53 PM CDT---------------
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