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338 FXUS64 KMOB 092134AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL334 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Saturday) Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025Upper-level troughing extending into the southwest US will begin to push eastwards during the period. As it does so, strong diffluence aloft will overspread much of the Southeast US. At the surface, a low pressure system has developed over the western Gulf, and is expected to quickly lift to the northeast throughout the day on Friday. After lifting across our coastal counties throughout the afternoon hours, it will help to send a cold front through the area Friday evening, with a cooler/drier airmass building in behind it. Plenty of moisture and forcing will allow for precip chances to increase tonight and especially through the day on Friday. With no instability in place, expecting this event be a stratiform precip shield as opposed to convection. In terms of precipitation type, forecast soundings in the dendritic growth zone should begin to saturate at around the 00Z-03Z timeframe tonight, while the surface to 700mb layer remains rather dry. With how dry this layer is, we initially may start off with some virga across portions of the area. After 03Z, the better forcing and moisture begins moving into the area from the southwest and precip chances begin to increase. At the same time, as the surface low starts to approach the area, a low-level jet will begin to develop and move into the area. This will support a warm air advection regime, especially in the 850 to 700 mb layer. The result will be the development of a roughly 100-150 mb deep warm layer that peaks at around 4-6C. Looking below this layer, the ongoing virga will help to saturate the dry layer, allowing for temps and dew points to approach the wet bulb temperature. For most locations, the warm air advection will allow for the wet bulb temperature to increase to above freezing, resulting in a cold rain across much of the area. However, looking at forecast soundings for our northern counties (primarily north of Highway 84), a sub-freezing wet-bulb profile may still exist somewhere above the surface and below the 850 mb level. This could allow for some hydrometeors to re-freeze as the precipshield initially moves over this area. Surface temperatures tonight are expected to hover around 32-35 degrees in this area, limiting any freezing rain potential. Therefore, although we stillexpect rain to remain the primary precip type, there remains a small chance that areas north of Highway 84 may see a few instances of sleet mixed in. Any sleet that does occur should not accumulate. As the LLJ (and thus WAA) increases, any remnant sub- freezing layer should begin to erode and all precip will transition to a steady, cold rain for the remainder of the day. This will likely occur by or before daybreak. Rain will continue through the day and PoPs will steadily decrease by the evening hours. We dry out for Saturday as high pressure builds in. The other main story will be coastal impacts from this system. As the low (and associated LLJ) develops and moves across our coastal counties, winds are expected to quickly increase late tonight and into tomorrow. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 6am through 6PM for the coastal interface for sustained winds up to around 20-30mph and gusts to around 40mph. It should be noted that a stronger low could result in higher winds along the coast and a possible expansion of the Wind Advisory a little further inland. Additionally, with Gale conditions expected over the marine, surf conditions will quickly deteriorate during the day on Friday. A High Surf Warning for large breaking waves of 7 to 9 feet is in place from 6am Friday through 6am Saturday. Highest surf heights look to occur during Friday afternoon with a slow decrease through Friday night. A High Risk of rip currents will also be in place through Saturday. /96&&.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025Cool and dry conditions will return for the extended period as dry northwesterly flow develops over the area. The only chance forrain will come early in the period on Sunday night into Monday asa subtle shortwave moves in across the area. By Saturday night into Sunday, the surface cold front will be pushed offshore likelyhanging up just off our coast. This boundary will be the focus for rain early in the period as a secondary shortwave moves acrossthe Great Lakes. Rain will move in late Sunday night mainly across the Gulf waters but some light overrunning precip may occurmainly along and south of I-10. By Monday, the upper shortwave will push east driving the surface front further into the Gulf andushering in another round of cool and dry air. High pressure willbuild over the central US in response to the departing upper trough. Temperatures will be the big thing with the extended forecast. Temperatures by the end of the week drop into upper 20 to low 30s once again for lows and highs in the 50s. Some cold weather products may be needed later in the week as wind chills will likely drop into the 20s and teens once again. BB/03&&.MARINE...Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025Light to moderate northeasterly winds become a strong southeasterly flow tonight as a storm system passes along the Gulf Coast. Gale force conditions are expected across all marine zones on Friday. Winds switch to a westerly flow on Friday as it lifts away from the region. A strong northwesterly flow follows for Friday night, subsiding to a light to moderate offshore flow by Saturday night. /96&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 40 60 34 48 31 56 40 59 / 40 100 20 0 0 10 20 10 Pensacola 43 65 38 48 35 55 44 60 / 10 100 40 0 0 10 40 20 Destin 44 64 39 49 38 56 46 62 / 10 90 70 0 0 10 40 20 Evergreen 34 54 34 45 26 56 34 58 / 40 100 30 0 0 10 10 10 Waynesboro 34 44 31 45 24 56 34 54 / 80 100 0 0 0 10 10 10 Camden 32 46 31 43 24 54 32 53 / 80 100 20 0 0 10 10 10 Crestview 34 63 36 46 28 55 36 60 / 20 100 60 0 0 10 30 20 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266. High Surf Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for ALZ265-266. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for FLZ202-204-206. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for GMZ630>636-650-655- 670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
