MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 9, 5:21 AM CST ...New AVIATION...030
FXUS64 KMOB 091121
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
521 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
VFR conditions are expected for much of the period, except for
MVFR ceilings becoming possible over portions of southeast
Mississippi late tonight. Numerous to widespread showers are
expected to develop west of I-65 tonight, with the potential for
some snow or sleet well inland. Lesser coverage of precipitation
is anticipated east of I-65 tonight. Northeasterly winds at 5 to
10 knots today become easterly tonight. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
Latest water vapor imagery shows zonal flow across the local area,
with a ridge over the Southern Plains and a trough over the Eastern
Seaboard. At the surface, light northerly winds persisted and temps
have fallen into the lower 30s across much of the area. The upper
trough will dig southward through the day, while the ridge to our
west moves into the Mississippi Valley. Despite the ridge and ample
sunshine, temperatures will struggle to warm above 50 degrees, as
highs top out in the upper 40s across most of the area. The ridge
will move east of the area tonight, as a potent upper trough digs
into the Plains. As the trough strengthens, a surface low will
develop off the TX coast and move eastward through the overnight
hours. Flow aloft will quickly become southwesterly this evening,
while surface flow begins to veer to the south in response to the
approaching low. As the system moves eastward, the low level jet
will strengthen, moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley late
tonight. The combination of forcing and moisture will allow
precipitation to overspread the area from west to east after
midnight and continue through much of the day on Friday. The surface
low will move east of the area Friday night, with rain chances
coming to an end by midnight.
In terms of the precipitation type, latest thinking hasn't changed
too much from previous forecasts, with a low probability of a
sleet/rain mix at the onset of precipitation early Friday morning.
Uncertainty remains high with regard to the temperature forecast and
if we are able to cool much before WAA begins in response to the LLJ
and approaching surface low. At this point, forecast soundings in
areas north of US-84 show fairly saturated profiles in the dendritic
zone, a warm nose around 700 mb, and drier air below 700 mb. Wetbulb
temps are below freezing and we may be able to cool to freezing just
as the precip begins. This would support an initial onset of precip
as sleet, before we begin to warm and precip transitions to all
rain. The duration and intensity will limit any accumulations, and
temps will rise above freezing around daybreak limiting any impacts.
The best chance for frozen precip will be across areas along and
north of the US-84 corridor, during a brief window before precip
transitions to all rain after sunrise. South of US-84, the vertical
profile will likely remain above freezing for much of the lower
levels, allowing any frozen precip to melt and fall as rain. Surface
temperatures will also remain above freezing and a cold rain is
likely all that we will see. /73
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
A large positively tilted upper trof mainly over the eastern
states weakens and moves off into the western Atlantic through
Sunday while another large upper trof forms over the central and
western states. This next upper trof broadens and progresses
into the interior eastern states Monday into Tuesday while a cut
off upper low forms near the Baja area. A surface low is expected
to progress from the northern Plains to across the Great Lakes
region, and in the process brings a cold front through the
forecast area late Sunday night. Dry and cold surface high
pressure will be in place over the area on Saturday then slowly
moves off to the east ahead of the approaching front. Dry
conditions are expected to prevail over the area Saturday into
Sunday. The latest model guidance indicates that the moisture
return ahead of the front may prove too limited to support pops
Sunday night as the front moves through, but for this issuance
will go ahead and keep in slight chance pops for the southern
portion of the area and let the next shift reassess. For now, the
slight chance pops will be in an environment supportive of a cold
rain. Dry conditions follow for Monday through Wednesday, and it's
possible that a Cold Weather Advisory could become necessary for
the far northern portion of the area Monday night and Tuesday
night where apparent temperature values drop to around 20. A high
risk of rip currents will be in effect on Saturday, then a
moderate risk follows for Saturday night and Sunday, with a low
risk for Sunday night and Monday. High Surf Advisory conditions
will be possible on Saturday. /29
MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
A Gale Watch is in effect from 15Z Friday until 00Z Saturday. A
Small Craft Advisory is otherwise in effect from 08Z Friday until
06Z Saturday. Light to moderate northeasterly winds become a strong
southeasterly flow tonight, then switch to a westerly flow on
Friday. A strong northwesterly flow follows for Friday night then
diminishes on Saturday. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 50 40 61 33 47 29 56 38 / 10 50 100 10 0 0 10 20
Pensacola 50 44 65 37 46 33 54 41 / 0 20 100 30 0 0 10 20
Destin 52 46 66 39 49 36 56 44 / 0 20 90 60 0 0 10 30
Evergreen 49 35 51 31 44 24 55 31 / 0 50 100 30 0 0 10 10
Waynesboro 47 34 44 29 44 23 54 31 / 10 90 100 0 0 0 10 10
Camden 46 33 44 29 41 22 51 29 / 0 80 100 20 0 0 10 10
Crestview 51 36 60 34 47 27 55 34 / 0 20 90 50 0 0 10 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Saturday
afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Saturday
afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to midnight CST Friday
night for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to midnight CST Friday
night for GMZ650-655.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to midnight CST Friday
night for GMZ670-675.
Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 9, 5:21 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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