JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 3:56 PM EST834
FXUS63 KJKL 112056
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
356 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures will persist through the next week.
- Apparent temperatures could fall to near or below zero for some
locations Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 355 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2025
Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered over New
England with an associated shortwave trough south east of the
eastern seaboard to east of the coast of the Carolinas, a
shortwave ridge extending north across the Lower to mid MS Valley
to western Great Lakes, while another upper level low was centered
west of Hudson Bay with a trough extending south across the
Dakotas to the Four Corners region to the southwest Conus. At the
sfc, an area low pressure pulling further east/northeast away
from the New England and mid Atlantic coasts while a ridge of sfc
high pressure that extended from the northwest Gulf of Mexico to
the Lower to Mid MS Valley region and portions of the TN and Lower
OH Valleys. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure system was
centered in the Dakotas with a frontal zone trailing into the
Four Corners vicinity to southwest Conus. Locally, despite the sfc
and upper level ridging building in, some low and mid level
clouds lingered and were producing some flurries or even isolated
snow showers. Drier air is gradually working into eastern KY at
this time and these were trending to just isolated to scattered
flurries. Cold advection has been occurring all day with 850 mb
temperatures having dropped to the -10C to -11C range at this
time.
This evening and tonight, a general increase in 500 mb heights is
anticipated over eastern KY as the shortwave ridging works across
the OH Valley and western Great Lakes to the eastern Great Lakes
to mid Atlantic to southeast US Coast. At the same time, the upper
low initially to the west of Hudson Bay drops south into
Manitoba and the axis of the upper level trough moves into the
Upper mS Valley to Central Plains to southwest Conus. A shortwave
moving through this trough should near the upper MS Valley late
tonight. At the sfc, the axis of the sfc high pressure will also
shift east and settle from the southeast to the southern to
central Appalachians late tonight. Meanwhile, a sfc low pressure
system should track from the Dakotas to the upper MS Valley with a
cold front trailing to portions of the central and southern
Plains with a secondary front dropping from the northern to
central Plains. 850 mb temperatures will begin to rise through
this evening and into tonight and the combination of the ridging
building and drier working in at the lower levels and this warm
advection should lead to the low and mid level clouds thinning and
flurries eventually dissipating. Lows should generally range
through the teens.
Sunday and Sunday night, further warm advection should occur as
the axis of the upper level ridge moves further east and a
shortwave passes northwest of the area and the 500 mb trough axis
begin to approach the MS Valley. This will occur as the upper low
continues to drop south near the Manitoba and Ontario border and
nears the upper MS Valley. As the shortwave passes northwest and
into the Great Lakes and toward Ontario later Sunday and into
Sunday night, the sfc low should continue northeast and into the
northern Great Lakes to the Lake Huron vicinity through the end
of the period while the trailing cold front sweeps across the
western and central Great Lakes and into the OH Valley to Lower MS
Valley. This boundary should be nearing eastern KY at the end of
the period. This system will have limited moisture to work with
and some light wintry precipitation perhaps flurries or drizzle
cannot be completely ruled out late Sunday night. Later hi
resolution models and HREF data should provide more confidence on
whether or not any light measurable or non measurable
precipitation is possible with this system. At this point,
precipitation appears more probable along and behind this front
in southeastern KY early in the long term period.
Ahead of the cold front on Sunday under some return southerly flow
and warming temperatures aloft temperatures appear poised to climb
above freezing for most for highs, reaching the mid 30s to near 40
degree range outside of the highest elevations. A period of
clearing with the potential for some valley decoupling may lead
to lows Sunday night for eastern and southeastern valleys in the
low to mid 20s, but temperatures should rise toward dawn with
increasing clouds and mixiness ahead of the approaching cold
front.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2025
Surface high pressure will continue to remain overhead to start the
forecast period; however, an upper-level disturbance will move
through southern Canada with a surface low and associated cold front
moving into the Great Lakes. As this front dives southeast toward
the Commonwealth, high pressure will be pushed off to the east. Snow
showers are forecast to develop Monday afternoon. Southwesterly flow
ahead of the front will advect relatively warmer temperatures into
the region which will allow for these showers to be largely a rain-
snow mix before tapering off late Monday night. Once the front exits
the area, surface high pressure will build back into the region for
Tuesday and remain in place through Wednesday afternoon. Post-
frontal CAA will allow for colder temperatures to filter into the
region leading to highs Tuesday and Wednesday to climb into the low
to mid-20s. Overnight lows Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings
will fall into the negatives to single digits.
Upper-level zonal flow will break down as troughing develops leading
to northwesterly flow building into the region. Northwesterly flow
coupled with lift from the troughing, increased chances (20-30%) for
PoP will build into the region for Wednesday night and continue
through Friday. These PoP chances/snow showers will largely be
confined to the northeastern portion of the CWA. Little to no
accumulation is expected with these snow showers. Models begin to
depict a potential system moving into the region for Friday but
overall confidence in this system is lacking as the GFS and ECMWF
aren't in great agreement on this system. Overall, cold temperatures
and snow chances will exist over eastern Kentucky through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2025
A mixture of MVFR and VFR was reported at issuance time across the
region. A general trend to VFR for most locations is expected
through 00Z. Some locations could experience patches of MVFR
as late as about 03Z. Thereafter, VFR should prevail as sfc high
pressure crosses the area. Winds will average west at 5 to 10KT or
less through 00Z, before becoming generally light and variable
overnight, followed by south at less than 10KT to end the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 3:56 PM EST---------------
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