IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 4:16 AM EST355
FXUS63 KIWX 080917 AAA
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
416 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Typical cold January temperatures continue for at least the
next 10 days.
- Lake effect snow showers this morning near Lake Michigan and
will then spread well inland this afternoon and evening,
mainly north of US 30. Light accumulations and minor travel
impacts expected.
- Additional light snow chances arrive Friday into Friday night,
and then again late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025
Shortwave trough is currently moving southward through the area
that is associated with a mid level low circulation over the eastern
Canada coast. This trough is supplying the lifting mechanism and
a north-northwesterly flow and will help to push any developing
lake effect snow showers further south. Did opt to slightly
lower snow amounts as it appears the mid level flow is strong
enough to shear the LES bands off and push any of the showers
further eastward which should lower the accumulations that
occur especially near the lake. Did not go any lower because a
few bands could potentially still arrive inland and for a short
time quickly accumulate. Thinking that 1-2 inches of snowfall
for southwestern MI counties and perhaps further south into St.
Joseph, Elkhart, and Lagrange counties in IN is now the most
likely outcome today and a localized 3 inch amount still not out
of the question. Otherwise, most other areas will see flurries
with a trace to around 1 inch. The better chances for any
accumulations will be mainly north of State Route 30.
A few remaining light LES showers will continue into late
tonight into early Thursday morning but activity will taper out
Thursday with mid level ridging pushing eastward into the
region bringing more southwesterly surface flow which will
essentially shut off the LES machine at least temporarily. By
early Friday morning another clipper system will drop southeast
into the area and bring another shot of snowfall, but as the
better influx of moisture is well south of the area associated
with the base of the trough over KY/TN snow amounts will be
light. With 1-2 inches a good bet across the area with a bit
more possible closer to Lake Michigan with any LES enhancement.
The common theme through and beyond the forecast will be light
LES showers and the cold temperatures which will continue well
into next week with highs mainly in the mid to upper 20s and
lows in the teens to low 20s. However, the only exception will
be next Tuesday and Wednesday when another slug of arctic air
arrives and highs will struggle to get out of the teens and lows
in the single digits to the low teens. Will need to monitor
this as even light breezes will make for wind chills below zero.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025
Southern Lake Michigan continues to be very mild for this time
of year - according to NOAA CoastWatch, the 2nd warmest in 30
years (only flanked by last year). Water temps >6C over much of
the interior will continue to provide favorable conditions for
lake effect snow showers; however, inversion heights and EQLs
just not very supportive for heavier snow showers. Given notable
shear per radar returns, have gone a little more optimistic at
SBN with visibilities and ceilings. It looks like the bulk of
the TAF period will retain MVFR conditions.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 4:16 AM EST---------------
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