BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 4, 6:17 PM EST763
FXUS61 KBOX 042317
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
617 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Rounding out the remainder of the weekend with dry, blustery,
and cold conditions. A mid-Atlantic snowstorm misses us to the
south Monday. Cold temperatures, blustery northwest winds and
dry weather will prevail for much of the upcoming workweek. High
temperatures may run some 10 degrees colder than normal, and be
accompanied by below zero wind chills for some during the
midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Southern New England is sandwiched between two pressure systems, an
area of low pressure near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River and
an elongated region of high pressure from south-central Canada to the
southern Appalachian Mountains... creating a tight pressure gradient
across our region. The rest of this afternoon can continue to expect
gusts of 25 to 35 mph, but localized gusts up to 40 mph are not out
of the question due to a 850mb jet streak around 55 knots. The jet
streak lifts northeast this evening and the depth of the boundary
layer compresses down to ~900mb. Still, there is a good amount of
wind, albeit less around 20 to 35 knots, weaker gusts overnight
around 15 to 25 mph. CAA continues overnight with intermittent cloud
cover and elevated winds. Nighttime lows are in the teens, slightly
less cold near the coast in the lower and middle 20s.
As for any precipitation, cannot rule out rouge snow showers because
of the ongoing lake effect activity to the west. Thinking these snow
showers are limited areas of northwest Connecticut and western
Massachusetts. Do have minor snow accumulations in far northwest
Massachusetts of an inch or two for towns 1,000 feet.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
There are not many changes to the overall weather pattern on Sunday,
thus we expect a mixture of clouds, below normal temperatures, and
breezy winds. Gusts are not as strong, between 20 and 30 mph. With
temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s, the feel like highs are
in the upper teens and low 20s. Dry weather persists, outside of a
spot snow flurry in northwestern Massachusetts due to the ongoing
lake effect snow to our west. Clear skies for the first-half of the
night, but clouds increase form southwest to northeast ahead of an
offshore storm that will bring impacts to the Mid-Atlantic. Chilly
night ahead with lows in the teens, feel like temperatures in the
low single digits.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry with below normal temperatures much of next week, to be
accompanied by blustery to gusty northwest winds.
* Wind chills zero to 10 below zero during the evening hours, 5-10
above zero during the daytime. Coldest periods look to be Tue thru
Thurs.
* Modifying temps late week, possible storminess next weekend?
The upcoming workweek looks to be a great target of opportunity
to break for a warmer climate for a few days if you are not
someone who enjoys a combo of cold temperatures and gusty winds.
Coldest airmass to this point in the winter season settles in
over much of the Northeast starting Mon night, transported
southward along the western end of a slow-moving upper low over
the Canadian Maritimes. This will allow for sustained northerly
flow aloft to advect air southward from northern Canada/Arctic
Canada, a typical setting for intrusions of very cold air. We
won't see temperatures breaking any cold records, but there is
reasonably high confidence in the coldest air yet seen in
Southern New England to this point in winter. Coldest air aloft
(925 mb temps -12 to -15C) advects in Tue thru Thurs, and it is
likely these days stand to be the coldest days in the stretch.
For these days, highs may struggle to reach the mid 20s in
interior Southern New England. Because we are looking at a
rather lengthy period of blustery to gusty northwest winds, low
temps may be slow to fall so kept these values close to NBM
(single digits to low teens). Will have to contend with wind
chills between 5 above zero and 10 below at night though. Will
have to re-eval temps in the coming days as we get into the
mesoscale model guidance realm but for now it looks as though we
fall short of Cold Weather Advisory (the replacement to the
previous Wind Chill Advisory, effective as of this winter)
criteria. However it will still be quite cold nonetheless with
some staying power to it, into late this week.
Northwest wind gusts this week should stay just below Wind
Advisory levels but Tue and Wed could have gusts in the Berks
and Worcester County area in the 35 to 40 mph range. Not as
gusty at night but the cold advection should keep some gustiness
into the nighttime hours.
In terms of precip chances...a well-developed coastal storm
expected to impact the Mid-Atlantic region passes well to our
south on Monday. Other than some increased cloud cover, and an
outside chance (<15%) of flurries or light snow showers over the
southern outer waters, no impacts are expected from this
system. It is actually a rather lengthy stretch of dry weather
to accompany the cold temperatures. Some indication in a few
global ensemble NWP members of some storminess evolving sometime
next weekend; with a complex interplay of phasing of trough
energies involved which are tough to pinpoint inside of 3 days
let alone a day 7-8 forecast, it's still too uncertain if we'll
see any development, but it is something we'll be monitoring.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z TAF Update:
Tonight: High confidence.
SCT-OVC VFR ceilings, greater coverage west. NW winds 15-20 kt
with gusts 25-30 kt at BOS/ACK, and around 10-12 kt with gusts
to 24 kt elsewhere to start, though gust speeds should ease
some toward the 2nd half of the night.
Sunday... High confidence.
VFR. SCT to BKN low-end VFR ceilings, MVFR ceilings for northern and
western MA. WNW wind gusts 20 to 25 knots.
Sunday Night... High confidence.
VFR. Chance of MVFR ceilings for Cape Cod and Islands with ceilings
SCT to BKN at 020 to 030. NW wind 8 to 12 knots, gusting to 20
knots.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. SCT-BKN VFR bases. NW gusts
to 30 kt thru about 05z, gusts then ease to under 25 kt before
picking up again Sunday mid/late AM.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. SCT-BKN VFR bases. NW winds
10-12 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt rest of tonight, though
gusts up to the mid-20s re-develop Sunday mid/late AM.
Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Key Messages:
* Short-fused Gale Warning for southern waters through this evening,
otherwise ongoing Small Craft Advisory conditions into Sunday.
Through Tonight... High confidence.
Gusty northwest to west-northwest winds 25 to 35 knots, with higher
gusts of 40 knots over the southern outer waters, Block Island Sound
and Rhode Island Sound. Strength in gusts ease after midnight, but
are up to 30 knots. Seas building 5 to 8 feet offshore and 3 to 6
feet nearshore.
Sunday and Sunday Night...High confidence.
Prolong northwest to west-northwest winds with gusts during the day
near 30 knots, diminishing to less than 25 knots overnight. Seas
during the day are 5 to 8 feet offshore and 3 to 6 feet nearshore.
Overnight seas diminish 4 to 6 feet offshore and 2 to 5 feet
nearshore. It is possible the Small Craft Advisory will need to be
extended through Sunday night.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight
chance of snow.
Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Freezing spray.
Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up
to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ230-236.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ231>234-250-
251-254.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ235-237-255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley
MARINE...Loconto/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 4, 6:17 PM EST----------------
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